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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Graham

Continued from here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058041687

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Assetbacked

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Great points, we really stuck in a 12.5% hole of our own making with no way out. The country is a basket case geared to MNCs if we raise our rates, the MNCs go and then we're in huge trouble.

My 2010 letter on this topic was of course completely ignored.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/letters/increasing-corporation-tax-1.678464?mode=amp

I agree but to be fair to Ireland, we are just slicing the bottom of the sack which belongs to tax havens.

France uses Monaco, Germany uses Luxembourg, the US uses Delaware and those Caribbean Islands, the UK uses Jersey, Guernsey and Isle of Man etc.

These big countries have set up their own countries with society and laws with internationally recognised sovereignty and independence but it is just a sham in order for certain individuals and entities to funnel their wealth through the jurisdictions without paying their fair share of tax. Ireland isn't on the payroll for any big nation but, like the Netherlands, said "**** it, we'll have some of that cake".

Smouse156

schmittel wrote: »

Or to put it another way - they are dropping prices!

Or most likely they were just way overpriced to begin with!

HotDudeLife

FWIW, the areas i have quickly "researched" (D7, D11, D12) all seem to be dropping in both asking and sales prices.

This theme may not be across the board as some people are still claiming there is no reductions (maybe for their area of interest this is true) but from what i have seen it appears the downturn is just starting. People can deny this all they want as some on here seem to do but if they notice any inaccuracies in my analysis of the data i am hoping they point this out as i am seeing price drops in all these areas.

HotDudeLife

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Fair enough i misunderstood those stats on myhome, been watching the D11 market closely and its been only moving downward the past few months.

Likewise, also seeing the same in D7 and D12. Haven't been paying much attention to other areas though

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Or to put it another way - they are dropping prices!

They were already overpriced pre Covid. I’m still amazed they were looking for €500k for a 1 bed apartment in greystones. How did they ever think that would work. €500k for a view of the Irish Sea. Ooooh you can see Wales on a clear day. Great.

HotDudeLife

Hubertj wrote: »

They were already overpriced pre Covid. I’m still amazed they were looking for €500k for a 1 bed apartment in greystones. How did they ever think that would work. €500k for a view of the Irish Sea. Ooooh you can see Wales on a clear day. Great.

Sheer madness. Greystones prices dropping by the looks of it too.

Interesting times ahead

hometruths

Smouse156 wrote: »

Or most likely they were just way overpriced to begin with!

Of course they were, which is why they are dropping prices now, like I said!

HotDudeLife

schmittel wrote: »

Of course they were, which is why they are dropping prices now, like I said!

The question is by how much, I'm predicting an average of 20% drop across the board by late 2022.

brisan

HotDudeLife wrote: »

The question is by how much, I'm predicting an average of 20% drop across the board by late 2022.

When and how much is the 64,000 dollar question

Bass Reeves

HotDudeLife wrote: »

The question is by how much, I'm predicting an average of 20% drop across the board by late 2022.

The real question mid if you get a 20%drol will it be because the better types of properties are removed from the market due to vendors being unwilling to sell at lower prices.

You could have the anomaly of a 20%+drop but very poor supply. In such a situation quality properties would in general be unavailable. For instance builders stopping building or only building smaller type housing and apartments. This could drag the index down but be of no use to buyers

Marius34

HotDudeLife wrote: »

FWIW, the areas i have quickly "researched" (D7, D11, D12) all seem to be dropping in both asking and sales prices.

This theme may not be across the board as some people are still claiming there is no reductions (maybe for their area of interest this is true) but from what i have seen it appears the downturn is just starting. People can deny this all they want as some on here seem to do but if they notice any inaccuracies in my analysis of the data i am hoping they point this out as i am seeing price drops in all these areas.

You have not provided analysis in first place. Nor anyone else to show that there are a clear trends of prices moving downwards or upwards.

hometruths

Bass Reeves wrote: »

The real question mid if you get a 20%drol will it be because the better types of properties are removed from the market due to vendors being unwilling to sell at lower prices.

You could have the anomaly of a 20%+drop but very poor supply. In such a situation quality properties would in general be unavailable. For instance builders stopping building or only building smaller type housing and apartments. This could drag the index down but be of no use to buyers

This old chestnut.

So if you're a house buyer in late 2022 and prices have dropped 20%, and you see a house that you like, and that you can afford, and that you can see yourself happy in for 10 years, how on earth is that of no use to buyers?

Or are you saying that if prices drop 20% there won't be any houses for sale that people actually want to buy?

hometruths

Bass Reeves wrote: »

The real question mid if you get a 20%drol will it be because the better types of properties are removed from the market due to vendors being unwilling to sell at lower prices.

Or possibly it might have more to do with buyers being unwilling to buy at higher prices.

Empty_Space

schmittel wrote: »

Or are you saying that if prices drop 20% there won't be any houses for sale that people actually want to buy?

I thought that was clearly the point they were making. Maybe read post again.

Empty_Space

Took longer then I expected but I'm expecting fall to start very soon.

The real question is how violently, if I was to guess, I'm expecting dramatic speed.

hometruths

Empty_Space wrote: »

I thought that was clearly the point they were making. Maybe read post again.

Ok fair enough. It is clearly the point they were making.

But it is such utter nonsense, I thought I would double check.

fliball123

HotDudeLife wrote: »

FWIW, the areas i have quickly "researched" (D7, D11, D12) all seem to be dropping in both asking and sales prices.

This theme may not be across the board as some people are still claiming there is no reductions (maybe for their area of interest this is true) but from what i have seen it appears the downturn is just starting. People can deny this all they want as some on here seem to do but if they notice any inaccuracies in my analysis of the data i am hoping they point this out as i am seeing price drops in all these areas.

I dont think prices have dropped yet the CSO and price property register stats have proven this

plibige

brisan wrote: »

Here is a list of over 3300
Take your pick
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/ireland/house-for-sale?maxprice=200000

cheers I'll go with one of those cheap houses in Leitrim, the 6 hour round trip daily commute should give me plenty of time to catch up on some podcasts!

brisan

plibige wrote: »

Where's this 190k house, i'd love to buy it

brisan wrote: »

Here is a list of over 3300
Take your pick
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/ireland/house-for-sale?maxprice=200000

plibige wrote: »

cheers I'll go with one of those cheap houses in Leitrim, the 6 hour round trip daily commute should give me plenty of time to catch up on some podcasts!

You only asked for a 190k house
You never specified where

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

I dont think prices have dropped yet the CSO and price property register stats have proven this

I think another poster did a timeline of this before. I couldn't find it but below was the gist of it.

Timeline from when first looking to buy a house to the transaction being registered in the CSO and Property Price Register:

Month 1 - 3: Looking for a home to buy. The price someone is willing to pay is most likely based on the prices they see advertised during this period.

Month 3 - 6: They make their bids on the houses they like.

Month 6 - 8: Mortgage drawn down and keys handed over. Solicitor has 44 more days to register the sale from the date the money is handed over so that the sale will be recorded on the property price register.

In other words, the prices recorded by the CSO and the Property Price Register are more likely to reflect the housing market that existed back in January 2020 or late 2019 than today.

sheepskin1234

Wonder how the english language schools are doing. I think they're mostly all doing online courses which a lot of people won't find good. Sure you could have done that in Spain or Argentina yourself.

Had been speaking to people around January planning to come this year or early next year and those plans are off for the moment.

Had a look at the rent a room groups in Dublin and they're far far less busy. For example, a triple room in Jervis D1 is advertised 2 days ago. It has 0 likes or comments.

But I checked jervis from a year or more ago and see an ad for 365 p/m shared with 2 others. 14 likes and 23 comments.

May 2019 - 365 a month. Sharing with 4 others. 17 likes, 32 comments.

Actually, I now see a load more posts requesting rooms in locations and there being people with rooms to rent PM'ing them!

A year ago doing that would have got nothing back. Shows demand is dropping massively I think.

Leozord

sheepskin1234 wrote: »

Wonder how the english language schools are doing. I think they're mostly all doing online courses which a lot of people won't find good. Sure you could have done that in Spain or Argentina yourself.

Ms is attending classes, started on the 31st of August. School is having face-to-face classes with social distancing and the whole apparatus.

Now, she was one of the few (like very few) which was allowed to enter the country for studying purposes. She doesn't even have an IRP card yet.

I'm aware that some schools are doing online classes, but there are others (like hers) which people must be in the classroom. Sadly, it is a major blow to these schools because they rely heavily on those Brazilian/Spanish/Argentineans students which pay a big money for an academic year and now just one or another can get into the country due to covid.

Probably some of those school will be closed for good

hometruths

Article in today's IT on our tax arrangements suggesting we are in the cross hairs: Will Ireland’s long winning streak on tax soon come to an end?

Our tax regime has withstood many attacks, but Brexit and Covid could change the game...

...The forces that see Ireland as taking an unfair share of the global tax cake are bigger than ever.

[Deleted User]

With the UK acting up over Brexit we are looking more appealing by the day .......... "‘A threat to democracy’: how Europe’s media reacted to UK’s plan to renege on Brexit deal"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/13/a-threat-to-democracy-how-europe-media-reacted-to-uk-plan-to-renege-on-brexit-deal

David McWilliams (I know

) had a nice spiel on it also .......... http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/the-uks-economic-illiteracy-is-irelands-opportunity/

I reckon the 12.5% will weather this storm also tbh.

hometruths

Augeo wrote: »

With the UK acting up over Brexit we are looking more appealing by the day .......... "‘A threat to democracy’: how Europe’s media reacted to UK’s plan to renege on Brexit deal"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/13/a-threat-to-democracy-how-europe-media-reacted-to-uk-plan-to-renege-on-brexit-deal

David McWilliams (I know ) had a nice spiel on it also .......... http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/the-uks-economic-illiteracy-is-irelands-opportunity/

I reckon the 12.5% will weather this storm also tbh.

Generally not a fan of McWilliams, but credit where it is due:

Last December, Johnson create a new political hybrid: the blue-collar/red-trouser Tory

Brilliant!

Chesty08

In layman’s terms, would anyone be able to share their insights on the current property market?

My understanding is that while the New Homes sector is increasing, the commercial & residential rental sector is plummeting (or am I mistaken).?

Bass Reeves

PropQueries wrote: »

I think another poster did a timeline of this before. I couldn't find it but below was the gist of it.

Timeline from when first looking to buy a house to the transaction being registered in the CSO and Property Price Register:

Month 1 - 3: Looking for a home to buy. The price someone is willing to pay is most likely based on the prices they see advertised during this period.

Month 3 - 6: They make their bids on the houses they like.

Month 6 - 8: Mortgage drawn down and keys handed over. Solicitor has 44 more days to register the sale from the date the money is handed over so that the sale will be recorded on the property price register.

In other words, the prices recorded by the CSO and the Property Price Register are more likely to reflect the housing market that existed back in January 2020 or late 2019 than today.

Rubbish even if you take your senario, people are only bidding in months 3-6, PPR reflects prices paid in general about 2-4 months ago not 8months. Anybody starting buying usually is looking at prices 6-12 months before starting the process. But when they start looking and activity buying is when they get an idea of what there funds will allow them to buy.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Article in today's IT on our tax arrangements suggesting we are in the cross hairs: Will Ireland’s long winning streak on tax soon come to an end?

There is a lot of hypocrisy in Europe though. France has Monaco, other large countries use Luxembourg and Switzerland , UK uses Channel Islands and Isle of Man, us use caymans etc. Ireland doesn’t have luxury of offshoring its tax ‘avoidance’ measures.

Pelezico

schmittel wrote: »

Generally not a fan of McWilliams, but credit where it is due:

Brilliant!

Sweeping generalisations and a couple of one liners. Amusing but hardly inspiring.

PropQueries

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Rubbish even if you take your senario, people are only bidding in months 3-6, PPR reflects prices paid in general about 2-4 months ago not 8months. Anybody starting buying usually is looking at prices 6-12 months before starting the process. But when they start looking and activity buying is when they get an idea of what there funds will allow them to buy.

But wouldn't that mean that the majority of bidders are bidding based upon prices they saw in the market 12 to 6 months previously?

As most buyers are not property experts, it's probably the prices they see in the market during their initial search period that inform the value they place on a potential property?

This may explain why it takes so long for property prices to fall.