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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Graham

Continued from here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058041687

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The Belly

Graham wrote: »

The problem is when everyone starts to think and act like that, a recession becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Much will hinge on the government interventions outlasting either a vaccine, or getting coronavirus under control.

Agreed no vaccine in sight any time soon. Government intervention is key it has to be massive. If that happens well we might avoid the worst.

Hubertj

The Belly wrote: »

That made me laugh. It has no effect on me either way but i see what i see.Your obviously young and more power to you and have not seen this before. Btw i havent either i lived through bad but this is a sh.it storm coming. We all decide what we choose to at the end of the day but based on the evidence it aint looking at all good.

I’m 43, married with 2 kids, life has been good to me, my family and friends. Plenty wrong with Ireland but plenty to be thankful for. There are people who get on with their lives and there are people like you.

The Belly

Hubertj wrote: »

I’m 43, married with 2 kids, life has been good to me, my family and friends. Plenty wrong with Ireland but plenty to be thankful for. There are people who get on with their lives and there are people like you.

Well im sorry if my views dont suit you. What ever happens will happen the sun will still rise. I've just never seen anything like this and have zero faith in the gov to deal with it. Sorry if that offends you.

Graham

The Belly wrote: »

Agreed no vaccine in sight any time soon.

Some serious amount of global effort and billions being spent to change that while in the background, manufacturing, packaging, distribution, logistics are all being setup ready.

Regardless, I certainly wouldn't be nailing my flag to the half-price property mast.

The Belly

Graham wrote: »

Some serious amount of global effort and billions being spent to change that while in the background, manufacturing, packaging, distribution, logistics are all being setup ready.

Regardless, I certainly wouldn't be nailing my flag to the half-price property mast.

Really hard to gauge. Vaccine no. It takes to long. ECb need to intervene in a big way. Hopefully they will.

bdmc5

The Belly wrote: »

I dont think it has anything to do with getting a house for half price but if you look at how things are and where they are heading i wouldn't be running out to buy anything.

Well the way things are heading is there's 1000s of people returning to work weekly, there hundreds of thousands working from home or working normally unimpacted the last 6 months and economic activity in first 2 months of this quarter are up considerably than previous quarters.

Schools have gone back after the summer and the pubs are reopening with thousands more back in employment so it's understandable there's still extremely strong demand for quality homes right now.

The Belly

bdmc5 wrote: »

Well the way things are heading is there's 1000s of people returning to work weekly, there hundreds of thousands working from home or working normally unimpacted the last 6 months and economic activity in first 2 months of this quarter are up considerably than previous quarters.

Schools have gone back after the summer and the pubs are reopening with thousands more back in employment so it's understandable there's still extremely strong demand for quality homes right now.

Of course, people need a place to live. Credit could be the issue. And as i said a minute ago ECB need to get their act together and let credit flow.

Graham

The Belly wrote: »

Really hard to gauge. Vaccine no. It takes to long. ECb need to intervene in a big way. Hopefully they will.

Aren't we in the region of 1.7 trillion at the moment?

I can't remember the exact figures but I'm pretty sure it's around there.

The Belly

Graham wrote: »

Aren't we in the region of 1.7 trillion at the moment?

I can't remember the exact figures but I'm pretty sure it's around there.

God of the top my head i cant remember but when things get tough which they are credit is key. Money need to flow in a big way until things return to some kind of normality.

neutral guy

The Belly wrote: »

Really hard to gauge. Vaccine no. It takes to long. ECb need to intervene in a big way. Hopefully they will.

What way ? They did not start inflation engine since last recession the last couple years in EU was deflation.What they will make better this time when all they did since last recession did not not work and EU was in recession ( for example Germany was in technical ) before Covid ?

The Belly

neutral guy wrote: »

What way ? They did not start inflation engine since last recession the last couple years in EU was deflation.What they will make better this time when all they did since last recession did not not work and EU was in recession ( for example Germany was in technical ) before Covid ?

Well, i work there sometimes and its the only place that they gave 100 euro notes from the machine. There is no inflation across the board they way the measure inflation is incorrect imo if you look at how they do. A bit like GDP and GNP here. This time they have no option they have to realse credit in a very massive way and if they dont well who knows.

Graham

neutral guy wrote: »

What way ? They did not start inflation engine since last recession

Although I personally think higher inflation might be good for some areas, I don't see why it would be entirely necessary to keep the economy moving along.

High inflation probably wouldn't be good for those awaiting the half price properties.

The Belly

Graham wrote: »

Although I personally think higher inflation might be good for some areas, I don't see why it would be entirely necessary to keep the economy moving along.

High inflation probably wouldn't be good for those awaiting the half price properties.

In bad times you flood the market with money keep jobs going keep the ship going until it passes then reduce it. Now we need major government action and it has to be like a iron mike tyson punch. Prices are to high but it will at least means they dont fall to bits.

Graham

You're preaching to the choir. Only time in my life I find myself willing collective governments to go spending like drunk sailors on shore leave.

neutral guy

Graham wrote: »

Although I personally think higher inflation might be good for some areas, I don't see why it would be entirely necessary to keep the economy moving along.

High inflation probably wouldn't be good for those awaiting the half price properties.

Opposite,when people spend more for bread they has less for property
Many of them wages will increasing slower then inflation will rising
The bigger the inflation the bigger the poverty the smaller the property prices due wit small demand

The Belly

Graham wrote: »

You're preaching to the choir. Only time in my life I find myself willing collective governments to go spending like drunk sailors on shore leave.

haha, me too jesus i believe in prudence but now is the time for major action and i dont give a sh.t who does it.

Graham

neutral guy wrote: »

Opposite,when people spend more for bread they has less for property
Many of them wages will increasing slower then inflation will rising
The bigger the inflation the bigger the poverty the smaller the property prices due wit small demand

If inflation rises, people with money are likely to move money from banks into property.

The purchasing power of your savings will reduce.

The purchasing power of your income will reduce.

The price of your bargain property in Drogheda is likely to go up, not down.

The Belly

Graham wrote: »

If inflation rises, people with money are likely to move money from banks into property.

The purchasing power of your savings will reduce.

The purchasing power of your income will reduce.

The price of your bargain property in Drogheda is likely to go up, not down.

Keep rates low increase lending no matter what it takes and face out this storm.

Graham

The Belly wrote: »

Keep rates low increase lending no matter what it takes and face out this storm.

I agree, accompanied with a very liberal sprinkling of government spending on capital projects, R & D incentives, startup funding, housing.....

neutral guy

Graham wrote: »

If inflation rises, people with money are likely to move money from banks into property.

The purchasing power of your savings will reduce.

The purchasing power of your income will reduce.

The price of your bargain property in Drogheda is likely to go up, not down.

From own experience and memory

House price in 2004 190 K
Breakfast roll in shop on corner 2.40
Today same house price 190 K
The breakfast roll price on same corner 4.80
Minimum wage 2004 6 euros per hour
Minimum wage today 10 euros per hour

Graham

Not sure what you're responding to there NG or the point you're trying to make.

If significant increases in inflation appeared, you could see the sort of changes you've seen over the last 16 years happen over a much shorter period without the benefit of matching wage increases.

The Belly

Graham wrote: »

I agree, accompanied with a very liberal sprinkling of government spending on capital projects, R & D incentives, startup funding.....

Yes if you look at history in bad times when taxes fall gov borrow and drive the economy with exactly what you have said. People dont panic and life goes on. But if they dont and credit drys up we will be in trouble and that will mean prices will drop like a stone.

Mic 1972

neutral guy wrote: »

Opposite,when people spend more for bread they has less for property
Many of them wages will increasing slower then inflation will rising
The bigger the inflation the bigger the poverty the smaller the property prices due wit small demand

the bigger the inflation the highest the prices, including houses

plibige

neutral guy wrote: »

From own experience and memory

House price in 2004 190 K
Breakfast roll in shop on corner 2.40
Today same house price 190 K
The breakfast roll price on same corner 4.80
Minimum wage 2004 6 euros per hour
Minimum wage today 10 euros per hour

Where's this 190k house, i'd love to buy it

neutral guy

Graham wrote: »

I agree, accompanied with a very liberal sprinkling of government spending on capital projects, R & D incentives, startup funding, housing.....

Enough build fast railway line with 300 km per hour from Dublin to Cork
With some stops in darkest corners and villages
And property prices in Dublin will fall by half
Same as housing problem solved
I dont will need buy house for 350K beside Dublin
To be in Dublin city center in 40 min
I will enough buy house for 100K on middle of the way between Dublin and Cork
To be at work in Dublin city center per same 40 min
Without paying insurances,motor taxes,pay tolls,etc

Hubertj

<SNIP>

Graham

It's pie in the sky but I do think there could be merit in a fast rail link between dublin, cork and a few other areas.

Probably a topic for another forum though before I have to give myself a warning.

You get the point about inflation though?

Extreme example;

Imagine we had 100% inflation in a day so the price of everything doubled tomorrow morning but your wages stayed the same. That wouldn't be a good thing for you. It certainly wouldn't help your house-buying aspirations.

The Belly

Hubertj wrote: »

Will you be paying income tax at this stage?

jasus give the lad a break you just pay yours and worry about yourself.

neutral guy

I will not tell much about everything
Just about hotels
The main profits hotels had from conferences/meetings were people was coming from around the world
Now people communicating online organising conferences/meetings and many are happy about it
There is number of great start ups making millions already working on technologies for it
Hotels will never back to normal life same as employees in them
Same as Dublin airport
On every step were you see movements from traditional life style to new will be changes forever
Or as said one of my mates who has pub We will Never back to normal even if economy will starting moving again
Same as people who started drink with friends at home or guys who started make sandwiches to work at home
Economy are heavily damaged the economy which still did not recover from 2008 recession
You could continue live in pink world dreaming about back to normal but we will never will back to normal again
There will be only worse before government will find out which they still did not found since last recession.

Graham

The coronavirus restrictions are only likely to stay forever if the pandemic stays forever.

I don't think even the most pessimistic expect that to happen.