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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Graham

Continued from here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058041687

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Graham

The article appears to refer to the "all in cost" not just the construction cost.

awec

Graham wrote: »

The article appears to refer to the "all in cost" not just the construction cost.

Yea but it is implying that the "all in cost" is lower when councils build, because the "all in cost" for councils includes a land cost of €0.

In which case, this is comparing apples to oranges.

But maybe I'm just reading it wrong.

Graham

I'd also guess councils don't have the financing costs that a developer may have to carry. I can't see the full article so just surmising here.

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

The article appears to refer to the "all in cost" not just the construction cost.

I think the Cairn Homes interview on RTE landed them in it when he admitted that the average cost of their 17,000 sites (mostly in Dublin) was €32k. If you take out the cost of the expensive sites e.g. the €175k per site in Donnybrook, the majority of their sites cost a lot less.

Since they build their 3 bed semis for less than €140k, I think the prices of many of their future 3 bed semis in Dublin are likely to be selling for well under the €300k mark as they compete with both Glenveagh and the second hand market for buyers. Cairn Homes can still make significant profits at these 'low' prices.

I believe the first casualty will be ex-corporation homes within the M50 and then all other second hand homes within a certain distance of where they will be building.

17,000 units is a lot to get rid of as they will be competing with future executor sales, people selling due to WFH, the so-called vulture funds getting out, Glenveagh, other small developers and many other sources of supply that will be entering the market e.g. student accommodation units converted to residential which brings the ex-rental properties people were previously renting back into the market etc. etc.

The_Conductor

awec wrote: »

why do you think people in rural Ireland build on their families land?

In a lot of cases- they are the only ones who are virtually guaranteed to get planning permission. Finance certainly is one aspect- but planning permission- particularly in some counties (such as Wicklow) can in many cases be an even bigger factor.

MacronvFrugals

Volkswagen subsidiary Man Trucks are laying off 9500 people :O

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/vw-man-truckmaker-cut-many-063144346.html

MacronvFrugals

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Cost of building homes ‘much cheaper’ than industry claims....... (in the irish times this morning)

They wouldn't have lied to us would they??????

Lorcan Sirr from DIT has been saying this and calling out the industries waffle for years.

L1011

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Volkswagen subsidiary Man Trucks are laying off 9500 people :O

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/vw-man-truckmaker-cut-many-063144346.html

Ireland?

Bare link dumping is a no-no anyway, but this isn't even vaguely relevant

MacronvFrugals

L1011 wrote: »

Ireland?

Not all of course but these things dont happen in a vacuum, one of my friends is a sales guy in their Dublin office and is expecting quite a few layoffs.

Cuddlesworth

PropQueries wrote: »

I think the Cairn Homes interview on RTE landed them in it when he admitted that the average cost of their 17,000 sites (mostly in Dublin) was €32k.

You missing a 0 there? No way you can build a house for 32k.

[Deleted User]

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

You missing a 0 there? No way you can build a house for 32k.

average cost of their 17,000 sites (mostly in Dublin) was €32k.

L1011

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

You missing a 0 there? No way you can build a house for 32k.

Sites. Land. As in the cost per house of the land its on.

Assetbacked

Ursabear wrote: »

IT article
"Cost of building homes ‘much cheaper’ than industry claims"

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/cost-of-building-homes-much-cheaper-than-industry-claims-1.4351897?mode=amp

FFS, this infuriates me;

Cairn has agreed in principle a €30.2 million deal to sell 61 apartments to Dublin City Council for social housing as part of its Part V obligation to allocate 10 per cent of any new private development to social housing. That values two-bedroom apartments at €521,377 and one-bed units at €472,797.

The same DCC run by an FF (11, not 9)-GP(10)-Lab (8)-SD(5) coalition (with 62 councillors in total). Other notables; 9 FG and 8 SF.

Some of the Local Property Tax they collect (which is pithy) is used to fund this disgraceful policy of propping up the margins of the big builders and investors. I'm not against a LPT per se or more tax in general but not if it is going to be wasted this way. I hope they get a funding shock from the covid crisis so they are forced to not persist with this nonsense policy.

https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2020/0519/1139283-local-property-tax/

L1011

DCC is run by an FF (11, not 9)-GP(10)-Lab (8)-SD(5) coalition.

SF have 8, not 7.

Assetbacked

L1011 wrote: »

DCC is run by an FF (11, not 9)-GP(10)-Lab (8)-SD(5) coalition.

SF have 8, not 7.

https://councilmeetings.dublincity.ie/mgMemberIndex.aspx?bcr=1

I just counted the pictures here, with only a single espresso in me this morning.

ElBastardo1

PropQueries wrote: »

I think the Cairn Homes interview on RTE landed them in it when he admitted that the average cost of their 17,000 sites (mostly in Dublin) was €32k. If you take out the cost of the expensive sites e.g. the €175k per site in Donnybrook, the majority of their sites cost a lot less.

Since they build their 3 bed semis for less than €140k, I think the prices of many of their future 3 bed semis in Dublin are likely to be selling for well under the €300k mark as they compete with both Glenveagh and the second hand market for buyers. Cairn Homes can still make significant profits at these 'low' prices.

I believe the first casualty will be ex-corporation homes within the M50 and then all other second hand homes within a certain distance of where they will be building.

17,000 units is a lot to get rid of as they will be competing with future executor sales, people selling due to WFH, the so-called vulture funds getting out, Glenveagh, other small developers and many other sources of supply that will be entering the market e.g. student accommodation units converted to residential which brings the ex-rental properties people were previously renting back into the market etc. etc.

Cairn are building very little within the M50 that will be low cost sites.

thefridge2006

L1011 wrote: »

Ireland?

Bare link dumping is a no-no anyway, but this isn't even vaguely relevant

In fairness i can see the relevance in this. All these global job losses will have a huge effect on Ireland and obviously the housing market. The Ulster Bank and KBC job losses hardly made the news yesterday and certainly didnt make the televised news... this would have been huge news back before this virus but its the new norm now. The amount of job losses that are coming down the line and the losses that haven't made the news will be eye watering IMO.

I'm only new on this but have been following this thread in particular for months now and definitely feel there is a bias in here for the "everything is great gang" by some mods.

Just my opinion

Assetbacked

On job losses in Dublin that aren't banking, retail, hospitality and travel/tourism, ;

AirBnb https://www.thejournal.ie/airbnb-job-losses-2-5113453-Jun2020/
Accenture https://www.consulting.us/news/4776/global-consulting-firm-accenture-is-firing-25000-employees
UPS https://www.irishtimes.com/business/retail-and-services/ups-shedding-150-staff-at-dublin-accounting-centre-1.4201346
LinkedIn https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0721/1154572-linkedin-to-cut-960-jobs-globally/
Smartbox, Oracle, Adroll and Glassdoor too apparently; https://www.businesspost.ie/coronavirus/ida-ireland-contacts-multinationals-over-covid-19-job-losses-806a2f34

thefridge2006

Assetbacked wrote: »

On job losses in Dublin that aren't banking, retail, hospitality and travel/tourism, ;

AirBnb
Accenture
UPS
LinkedIn
Smartbox, Oracle, Adroll and Glassdoor too apparently;

WOW..... I didn't even hear of half of these redundancies ...... RTE are doing a good job of blocking the reality of the whole thing.... that's bleak

TheSheriff

thefridge2006 wrote: »

WOW..... I didn't even hear of half of these redundancies ...... RTE are doing a good job of blocking the reality of the whole thing.... that's bleak

You might want to take off that tinfoil hat of yours.

Hubertj

Assetbacked wrote: »

On job losses in Dublin that aren't banking, retail, hospitality and travel/tourism, ;

AirBnb https://www.thejournal.ie/airbnb-job-losses-2-5113453-Jun2020/
Accenture https://www.consulting.us/news/4776/global-consulting-firm-accenture-is-firing-25000-employees
UPS https://www.irishtimes.com/business/retail-and-services/ups-shedding-150-staff-at-dublin-accounting-centre-1.4201346
LinkedIn https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0721/1154572-linkedin-to-cut-960-jobs-globally/
Smartbox, Oracle, Adroll and Glassdoor too apparently; https://www.businesspost.ie/coronavirus/ida-ireland-contacts-multinationals-over-covid-19-job-losses-806a2f34

Oracle was on the cards preCovid
https://www.siliconrepublic.com/companies/oracles-jobs-cuts-dublin#:~:text=It%20is%20reported%20that%20more,as%201%2C300%20jobs%20across%20Europe.

awec

thefridge2006 wrote: »

WOW..... I didn't even hear of half of these redundancies ...... RTE are doing a good job of blocking the reality of the whole thing.... that's bleak

He literally posted a link to the RTE story on one of them.

They also covered the AirBnB one at the time (it was in May).

The Accenture one has no Irish angle yet, you can be sure they'll have it covered when it does (and it will). This one hasn't really been covered by any real media anywhere yet.

The UPS one was in March, pre-covid / lockdown.

Assetbacked

Yeah, I mean they don't look major in the grand scheme of things, certainly not compared to the losses in hospitality, retail and travel. The big thing to watch is whether the projects to lease the large office complexes for the likes of Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon still go ahead.

thefridge2006

TheSheriff wrote: »

You might want to take off that tinfoil hat of yours.

Ok so why haven't these been reported on RTE? I know there is very serious issues lately but its not like there minuscule or anything.....they had time to report from some garden in Navan where the locals are growing their own food or some irrelevant news instead

Maybe i'm a bit cynical but very rarely hear negative news about our beloved Tech industry here

awec

Assetbacked wrote: »

Yeah, I mean they don't look major in the grand scheme of things, certainly not compared to the losses in hospitality, retail and travel. The big thing to watch is whether the projects to lease the large office complexes for the likes of Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon still go ahead.

Yea, even the bank ones that the poster referenced, KBC was like 20 jobs and Ulster Bank was like 200, and the push was to move more banking online. This was sure to happen at some stage, covid or no covid, recession or no recession.

There is no grand conspiracy here. Job losses are going to come and some of those on furlough are not going to get their jobs back, but so far nothing major has happened.

Assetbacked

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Ok so why haven't these been reported on RTE? I know there is very serious issues lately but its not like there minuscule or anything.....they had time to report from some garden in Navan where the locals are growing their own food or some irrelevant news instead

Maybe i'm a bit cynical but very rarely hear negative news about our beloved Tech industry here

It's not tinfoil hat stuff with respect to the MNCs. Look at the Data Protection Commissioner as an example; it should be the gatekeeper for GDPR in Europe, making sure the big techs are kept in line but it is headed by a fairly toothless civil servant and given a small budget on purpose. It announces statutory enquiries into the big techs but then mysteriously nothing is ever heard again;

https://www.dataprotection.ie/en/data-protection-commission-launches-statutory-inquiry-googles-processing-location-data-and
https://www.dataprotection.ie/en/news-media/press-releases/data-protection-commission-opens-statutory-inquiry-google-ireland-limited
https://www.dataprotection.ie/en/news-media/press-releases/data-protection-commission-opens-statutory-inquiry-facebook-0

10 linear metres should do us;

https://shop.supervalu.ie/shopping/product/1141137000

Hubertj

Assetbacked wrote: »

It's not tinfoil hat stuff with respect to the MNCs. Look at the Data Protection Commissioner as an example; it should be the gatekeeper for GDPR in Europe, making sure the big techs are kept in line but it is headed by a fairly toothless civil servant and given a small budget on purpose. It announces statutory enquiries into the big techs but then mysteriously nothing is ever heard again;

https://www.dataprotection.ie/en/data-protection-commission-launches-statutory-inquiry-googles-processing-location-data-and
https://www.dataprotection.ie/en/news-media/press-releases/data-protection-commission-opens-statutory-inquiry-google-ireland-limited
https://www.dataprotection.ie/en/news-media/press-releases/data-protection-commission-opens-statutory-inquiry-facebook-0

10 linear metres should do us;

https://shop.supervalu.ie/shopping/product/1141137000

Is their office still above a shop in loais somewhere?

Pelezico

thefridge2006 wrote: »

In fairness i can see the relevance in this. All these global job losses will have a huge effect on Ireland and obviously the housing market. The Ulster Bank and KBC job losses hardly made the news yesterday and certainly didnt make the televised news... this would have been huge news back before this virus but its the new norm now. The amount of job losses that are coming down the line and the losses that haven't made the news will be eye watering IMO.

I'm only new on this but have been following this thread in particular for months now and definitely feel there is a bias in here for the "everything is great gang" by some mods.

Just my opinion

Mods are a vested interest just like everyone else o this board but negative comments not blocked.

thefridge2006

Assetbacked wrote: »

It's not tinfoil hat stuff with respect to the MNCs. Look at the Data Protection Commissioner as an example; it should be the gatekeeper for GDPR in Europe, making sure the big techs are kept in line but it is headed by a fairly toothless civil servant and given a small budget on purpose. It announces statutory enquiries into the big techs but then mysteriously nothing is ever heard again;

10 linear metres should do us;

Why would we never hear anything about it again?

Graham

Mod Note

if you'd like to continue the general discussion of global job losses or RTE reporting of same, please take it to the appropriate forum.