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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Graham

Continued from here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058041687

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Vikings

Pelezico wrote: »

Buying a house, however overpriced, is all that matters. Everything else is just....waiting.

You're more worried about how much other people pay for their homes than they are. Says a lot.

Cyrus

Pelezico wrote: »

Buying a house, however overpriced, is all that matters. Everything else is just....waiting.

Your veil is slipping

The poster said themselves they don’t want to wait more than 9 months so they obviously feel they are putting a things on hold as well despite your efforts to convince everyone otherwise.

We all get one life and a finite time to live it, if you and smurgen want to high five each other’s misery and frantically wait for the first signs of house prices dropping so you can gleefully tell everyone you told them so then go ahead, other people have lives to get on with.

OwlsZat

TheSheriff wrote: »

I consider my life on hold as I can't buy now.

So do many others. Nothing ridiculous about it.

Feel free to label yourself but hold off labelling others.

Pelezico

Cyrus wrote: »

Your veil is slipping

The poster said themselves they don’t want to wait more than 9 months so they obviously feel they are putting a things on hold as well despite your efforts to convince everyone otherwise.

We all get one life and a finite time to live it, if you and smurgen want to high five each other’s misery and frantically wait for the first signs of house prices dropping so you can gleefully tell everyone you told them so then go ahead, other people have lives to get on with.

Getting on with ones life...life on hold. Do you believe ones life is incomplete without being owned by a house?

Self actualisation is achieved by buying that house.

TheSheriff

OwlsZat wrote: »

Feel free to label yourself but hold off labelling others.

Multiple others have labelled themselves the same.....literally, a few posts back.

OwlsZat

Pelezico wrote: »

Buying a house, however overpriced, is all that matters. Everything else is just....waiting.

Some people have life pressures forcing them into buying housing. Respect is a two way street.

OwlsZat

TheSheriff wrote: »

Multiple others have labelled themselves the same.....literally, a few posts back.

The post I replied to was someone labelling someone else. Literally, a few posts back

Cyrus

Pelezico wrote: »

Getting on with ones life...life on hold. Do you believe ones life is incomplete without being owned by a house?

It all comes down to buying that house.

A house is more than a financial burden for some people believe it or not.

smurgen

Cyrus wrote: »

Your veil is slipping

The poster said themselves they don’t want to wait more than 9 months so they obviously feel they are putting a things on hold as well despite your efforts to convince everyone otherwise.

We all get one life and a finite time to live it, if you and smurgen want to high five each other’s misery and frantically wait for the first signs of house prices dropping so you can gleefully tell everyone you told them so then go ahead, other people have lives to get on with.

You were the same lad saying WFH would never catch on and it would be everyone back to the offices as soon as lockdown eased. You and a few more are happy to see the Ponzi scheme that is the Irish property market rumble on no matter what. Spear me your crocodile tears. People should be cautious. The smug master of the universe rhetoric is disappearing as the big money starts to show it's hand. The estate agents and other snake oil salesmen will continue to spin yarns to try get the last few suckers in.

riclad

You buy a house to live in for 20 years, if it go's up or down by 20 per cent in value does not really matter. As long as you can afford you can afford to pay the mortgage.
And is it not better to own something than to just pay rent every month .
You don't have to ask permission to paint a wall or put in a new door.
Trying to work out what will happen in the next 3 years is probably futile if you can afford to buy a house now.
Someone still has confidence in the economy
Guinness Ltd has got planning permission to built offices and new apartments on a large site in dublin.

Cyrus

smurgen wrote: »

You were the same lad saying WFH would never catch on and it would be everyone back to the offices as soon as lockdown eased. You and a few more are happy to see the Ponzi scheme that is the Irish property market rumble on no matter what. Spear me your crocodile tears. People should be cautious. The smug master of the universe rhetoric is disappearing as the big money starts to show it's hand. The estate agents and other snake oil salesmen will continue to spin yarns to try get the last few suckers in.

Well we don’t know yet do we, because the guidance on wfh hasn’t changed yet maybe wait til that happens before your victory lap, as for you knowing or understanding what ‘big money ‘ is doing

Leave it out

[Deleted User]

ive been a long time putting savings away to get near a deposit, like many who rent and had to wait out the last dip/boom while working to get up to a decent salary. no help from family available, no inheritance or property to help out. been a long road.

im soon going to be at the stage where a bank will be looking at my age, so there is a time impetus involved.

some will buy at market bottom, or as close as they can

some will buy as soon as they can and avoid rent, or get it paid early

anyone who thinks to sneer at anyone else's circumstances in decisions like this just to win a message board point is a small person imo

smurgen

Cyrus wrote: »

Well we don’t know yet do we, because the guidance on wfh hasn’t changed yet maybe wait til that happens before your victory lap, as for you knowing or understanding what ‘big money ‘ is doing

Leave it out

It's literally in the papers. Pensions dropping property investments and now Google pulling out of the biggest rental property in Dublin.

landofthetree

At the last census the home ownership rate was 67.6 per cent, lower than the EU average of 69.2 per cent.

This peaked in 1991, when 79.3 per cent of Irish people were homeowners.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/the-changing-face-of-irish-home-ownership-who-wins-who-loses-1.3850954

As a country we have gotten wealthier but many have lost out.

Also we were always told that renting was more common in Europe. No we are at the same level.

What a epic mess our governments made of home ownership. Re floating the market post the crash was a huge mistake IMO.

Remember when Noonan said he want prices to rise further? :rolleyes:

https://www.independent.ie/life/home-garden/homes/michael-noonan-wants-house-prices-to-rise-further-30192456.html

alias no.9

King Cantona wrote: »

Thanks for the replies. Yes, don't worry, I'm not making any decisions based on a random forum post, but certainly interesting to get perspectives and opinions.:)

Regading some of the Q's posed to us:

Location is most important to us so new builds and the FTB scheme isn't much use to us, as where we'd like to live, a new build would usually be in excess of €600k (usually way higher)

We're willing to wait, but no longer than 9 months - we're just at that stage where we want more space.

We had decided that we'll only move if it's a potential forever home AND good value. We'll determine what we perceive to be good value.

There always seems to be something around the corner ready to affect the market - last year when we were looking it was Brexit and the trade deal (still relevant) and obviously now it's the impact of COVID.

The reason we're leaning towards waiting is that I do think a recession is inevitable, and I also think there will be something in the budget to drive either supply or affordability. From speaking with friends in the bank, they are inundated by requests for mortgages in both AIB and BOI, and from our own experience, KBC are much slower to process our re-application than a year ago. I'd imagine that's a combination of people trading up due to spending more time at home but also and probably a bigger factor, people knowing circumstances will change in their jobs and drawing down whatever they can now.

I fully expect prices to fall but I don't know by how much. Something to consider is that right now, there seems to be a frenzy, don't buy in a frenzy. Logic and reason doesn't really hold in the Irish property market, except if there is a rush to do one thing, maybe bide your time.

It's worth observing the frenzy however, I expect it's mostly FTBs but don't have data to back that up, maybe recent PPR data for the area you're looking at could show most sales being at the FTB end of the market fot the area. If there aren't many sales at your budget or above, you may have a strong hand, even now.

At the figures you're suggesting, you're not really in the FTB market, if you're not fixated on a specific property, you may be able to play hard ball. Watch for properties on the market for an extended period, some will just be dreamers, but others need to sell. Don't be afraid to low ball offer if there are no bids, don't bid against yourself and don't take rejection of an offer personally, if your first offer is accepted, you've probably offered too much.

cubatahavana

OwlsZat wrote: »

Please stop using this ridiculous turn of phrase. If you don't buy now, your life is not "on hold". Almost as bad as "everything happens for a reason".

I said “probably”. Don’t know if it is or not

cubatahavana

TheSheriff wrote: »

It's flippant posts like this which have made this place so toxic.

Of course Pelezico, your outlook is the only one which is correct and matters. We should all do as your adult son and move home to save as much as possible.

Starting to believe he’s trolling us all

Bass Reeves

It not about you life being on hold or not on hold it about the ability to make choices. If you have children you are at the stage where you start thinking about access to schools. Moving schools is hard on children. As well if moving schools you will have less choice than if you were resident there before your children went to school. As bad as moving school at national school level moving children when at secondary school is a disaster. Different subjects and subject choices is tough on children.

The choice parents often make is then to keep children in original school and take them and collect them from this school. This often adds 40-80 minutes to commuting/working day. When you factor in crèche and access to them or changing creches all this has a cost factor.

The questions then is how long you wait, last May posters here were predicting a price collapse by early Autumn, now it next year. People making predictions on a proposal by a building lobby group and how it might effect second hand houses. It is unlikely government will take it up the proposals and even if they did it would be at a lower funding level than proposed by the building lobby.

I read an article in yesterday's SI business section. At the start of the year predicted completion of housing units was at 20k now after COVID lockdown, work practices changes, tightening of funding , projected completions is expected to be around 16.5k. However if you strip out social and affordable projects, build to rent and one off houses the expected number of actual units available to buyers is about 5k.

There may be some unsold houses in the system but it not many. New starts have slowed down as builders concentrate on finishing incomplete house's and complete the sales of existing stock where mortgage drawing is slowed down. Supply will remain very tight IMO.

I have to laugh at people giving advice about low balling bid, looking at properties hanging around for 1-2 years. If a house is not sold after a year it likely it was overvalued first day. It likely it needs a.lot of work which entails access to capital to carry out this work. Even after all these are taken into account you have to factor if a seller has held tough for 18-24 months it unlikely they will accept a low ball bid.

brisan

fliball123 wrote: »

Well you have to weigh it up as everyone has their own unique circumstance I would factor the following in do.

Will the house be there after you wait for a 20% price fall.
Will there actually be a 20% price fall.
Will we go back into lockdown so you could be back in your small place for another prolonged period of time
Will I get mortgage approval as banks will restrict lending if the conditions for a 20% price fall come to pass (recession/depression, mass permanent job losses)
How safe is yours and your spouses job.
How much do you lose with renting.
How much do you want the house.

I wouldn't listen to anyone on here telling you to buy or not to buy you need to sit down with your partner and think about the pros and cons and either go ahead and buy and take the risk of a price drop and you paying more for the house or stay where you are and take the risk of the property being snapped up by someone else or that you wont get the credit you need to purchase.

Good luck with it, its a hard decision.

Plus as you have young children will you want to move schools or would you prefer to have them settled in school for their entire 8 years in primary school

brisan

cubatahavana wrote: »

Wouldn’t it be great if company A sells 100 million worth of mortgages to company B for 50 million and the mortgage holders would get some discounts from the transactions?

Then even more people would not pay their mortgage hoping the loan is classed as distressed and sold off with a discount to the property owner

brisan

TheSheriff wrote: »

Don't dispute that for a second.

It personally wouldn't be a choice I would make. I would not like to retire and not have security over my accommodation.

The Irish (and to some extent the British ) rental market is totally at odds to how the European and to a large extent the American market works
Much more security of tenure for tenants in Europe

brisan

schmittel wrote: »

Handy for social distancing!

Turn it into a pub with tables 2 metres apart

brisan

Assetbacked wrote: »

Don't be surprised if we see government guidelines published next week which involve measures to get workers back into offices as part of the overall covid road map. The institutional investor lobby is quite powerful and will not want to see this Google move becoming a trend. Losing a big chip company like Google can start a chain reaction.

I think with the limited public transport ,more people in the city and crowed trains and buses are not on the agenda.
Dublin city is and will continue to be a ghost town until a viable vaccine is found

brisan

Cyrus wrote: »

Your veil is slipping

The poster said themselves they don’t want to wait more than 9 months so they obviously feel they are putting a things on hold as well despite your efforts to convince everyone otherwise.

We all get one life and a finite time to live it, if you and smurgen want to high five each other’s misery and frantically wait for the first signs of house prices dropping so you can gleefully tell everyone you told them so then go ahead, other people have lives to get on with.

Life is the journey NOT the destination

brisan

alias no.9 wrote: »

I fully expect prices to fall but I don't know by how much. Something to consider is that right now, there seems to be a frenzy, don't buy in a frenzy. Logic and reason doesn't really hold in the Irish property market, except if there is a rush to do one thing, maybe bide your time.

It's worth observing the frenzy however, I expect it's mostly FTBs but don't have data to back that up, maybe recent PPR data for the area you're looking at could show most sales being at the FTB end of the market fot the area. If there aren't many sales at your budget or above, you may have a strong hand, even now.

At the figures you're suggesting, you're not really in the FTB market, if you're not fixated on a specific property, you may be able to play hard ball. Watch for properties on the market for an extended period, some will just be dreamers, but others need to sell. Don't be afraid to low ball offer if there are no bids, don't bid against yourself and don't take rejection of an offer personally, if your first offer is accepted, you've probably offered too much.

Very sound advice
One other small piece of advice
Do not be afraid to walk away from a property and let the EA know you are prepared to walk away.
My nephew has just gone sale agreed.
It was the third property he bid on
His sale agreed house was handled by the same EA of one of the properties he bid on and walked away from
Have a max price in mind and when its reached walk away
That 1 k extra bid could soon become 10-20-30k if you look at it as a competition

PropQueries

Google pulls out of talks to lease 2,000 office spaces in Dublin.

“Google has pulled out of talks to lease the Sorting Office, a seven-storey office building under construction in Dublin’s docklands. After much deliberation, Google has decided not to proceed with leasing the Sorting Office, said a statement from a Google spokesperson.”

Irish Independent article link here: https://www.independent.ie/business/technology/google-pulls-out-of-talks-to-lease-2000-office-spaces-in-dublin-39512236.html

tigger123

PropQueries wrote: »

Google pulls out of talks to lease 2,000 office spaces in Dublin.

“Google has pulled out of talks to lease the Sorting Office, a seven-storey office building under construction in Dublin’s docklands. After much deliberation, Google has decided not to proceed with leasing the Sorting Office, said a statement from a Google spokesperson.”

Irish Independent article link here: https://www.independent.ie/business/technology/google-pulls-out-of-talks-to-lease-2000-office-spaces-in-dublin-39512236.html

I'd imagine that's them doubling down on WFH.

No point in paying through the nose for office space in that scenario.

Assetbacked

brisan wrote: »

I think with the limited public transport ,more people in the city and crowed trains and buses are not on the agenda.
Dublin city is and will continue to be a ghost town until a viable vaccine is found

Exactly, that is what one would expect. However, we do have institutional investors who have the ear of the advisors and they will be saying that it would be a shame if Ireland's economic recovery was stunted due to reduced appetite for commercial space which helped pump up GDP the past few years.

The lack of tourist activity from now (since people are back to work and kids back at school) until 2021 season at the earliest is going to finish off a lot of businesses in Dublin city but also outside of Dublin. All the pubs will be open soon but sure what sort of footfall will the city centre ones have during the week with no tourists pottering about and no office workers coming in for their lunch? Pubs offering food after the GFC was key to their survival but I don't see how many of them will survive until tourism starts next March, without significant government subsidies. From now is when we will see proper economic fallout from the extreme covid response by the government (ignoring whether you feel it was right or wrong, it was extreme and wasn't just Ireland obviously which shut down its economy). With such a divided and mismatched government, unfortunately I do not see anything promising in the next 6 months of Ireland's re-emerging from economic and social hibernation. Hopefully I'm wrong.

Of relevance to property; massive demand shock and stress test for the market as a result of this demand shock. Reports after Q2 next year (so July/August reports) are when we will start to see the covid response effect on the market, but it seems the rental market is ripe to be popped. The purchase market is so fragmented that certainly above a certain price range some haircuts will be taken but other price ranges will hold up. Even within price ranges there seems to be a big divide between homes needing renovation and those that are turnkey. The promising thing is that credit is not a big factor in the home buying market which means the negative effect of the shock won't be amplified so I wouldn't be as pessimistic about this market. With FF and FG eager to get more younger people into home ownership too it is very possible (and there are some signs so far) that they might actually introduce some measures which prop up the purchaser's market for FTBs which can trickle up of course.

Cyrus

brisan wrote: »

Life is the journey NOT the destination

i totally agree and that journey is a lot more enjoyable when you and your family have a home to live in, that meets your needs.

rather that than spend a decade waiting for a recession renting somewhere personally.

Hulk Hands

Cyrus wrote: »

i totally agree and that journey is a lot more enjoyable when you and your family have a home to live in, that meets your needs.

rather that than spend a decade waiting for a recession renting somewhere personally.

Well no more waiting, we're in one. After your weeks of needless pedantry telling people we weren't

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-in-recession-as-economy-contracts-by-more-than-6-1.4348513