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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Graham

Continued from here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058041687

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smurgen

Pelezico wrote: »

The buy and dont worry about the price brigade.

They also say...life is on hold unless you own a house. You must buy or life is empty and meaningless.

You just haven’t lived until you’ve woken up in a three bedroom semi detached gaff with a big mortgage.

beauf

Pelezico wrote: »

The buy and dont worry about the price brigade.

They also say...life is on hold unless you own a house. You must buy or life is empty and meaningless.

I would say the price does matter for most. For a small minority it won't.

You've lost me with the other bit. You can't put life on hold.

Pelezico

beauf wrote: »

I would say the price does matter for most. For a small minority it won't.

You've lost me with the other bit. You can't put life on hold.

I agree. I was challenging a poster who suggested your life is on hold because you have not bought a property.

Laughable suggestion really.

TheSheriff

Pelezico wrote: »

Life is on hold? I dont accept that.

Remember you own the house. The house does not own you.

But perhaps you don't accept it as your haven't experienced it? (unaware of your circumstances obviously, so open to correction on that).

But for example (us), a couple in their 30's, want to start a family, want to have a wedding want a home where I can paint the walls without having to ask permission from a landlord I see once a year etc. .

Versus reality- stuck in a 1-bed apartment paying rent, to move to a bigger place to start a family means paying more rent, therefore the house moves further away and possibly mortgage terms becomes shorter etc.

Many, many more like us.

For you to say these factors shouldn't have an impact, this argument is not valid etc. is likely coming from a position of not having experienced our modern housing crisis.

Pelezico

smurgen wrote: »

You just haven’t lived until you’ve woken up in a three bedroom semi detached gaff with a big mortgage.

Yes and your only social outlet...because you cant afford to go out..is to post on boards about the joys of home ownership.

Oh and you must remind everyone just how much your house has increased in value. But you are absolutely broke and will continue to be broke for the next decade.

beauf

TheSheriff wrote: »

But perhaps you don't accept it as your haven't experienced it? (unaware of your circumstances obviously, so open to correction on that).

But for example (us), a couple in their 30's, want to start a family, want to have a wedding want a home where I can paint the walls without having to ask permission from a landlord I see once a year etc. .

Versus reality- stuck in a 1-bed apartment paying rent, to move to a bigger place to start a family means paying more rent, therefore the house moves further away and possibly mortgage terms becomes shorter etc.

Many, many more like us.

For you to say these factors shouldn't have an impact, this argument is not valid etc. is likely coming from a position of not having experienced our modern housing crisis.

The reality lots of people, around the world never own property and some have no interest in owning any.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_home_ownership_rate

TheSheriff

beauf wrote: »

The reality lots of people, around the world never own property and some have no interest in owning any.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_home_ownership_rate

Don't dispute that for a second.

It personally wouldn't be a choice I would make. I would not like to retire and not have security over my accommodation.

TheSheriff

smurgen wrote: »

You just haven’t lived until you’ve woken up in a three bedroom semi detached gaff with a big mortgage.

You certainly haven't lived unless you've spent over 100K on rent over the past 10 years ..... I'd take a mortgage which would be cheaper than my rent everyday of the week. The two extra bedrooms I'd have would be a nice bonus.

Vikings

neutral guy wrote: »

We are in recession

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0907/1163668-cso-second-quarter-gdp-figures/

Now is only matter of time when prices will falling.Talking about supply do not forget second hand market there will be plenty supply out there

That's been said since the start of covid and it hasn't happened. Yet.

And there is most definitely not a plentiful supply of second hand homes. Yet.

landofthetree

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-09-07/google-abandons-plan-to-rent-dublin-office-for-2-000-workers

Google have pulled out of a deal to rent 202,000 sq ft of office space.

Oh boy.

smurgen

Big news. But sure wfh not going to have an impact lol.

https://twitter.com/business/status/1303061998662561794?s=19

TheSheriff

landofthetree wrote: »

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-09-07/google-abandons-plan-to-rent-dublin-office-for-2-000-workers

Google have pulled out of a deal to rent 202,000 sq ft of office space.

Oh boy.

Great news for renters. Will certainly remove alot of demand (from relatively high paid employees).

Were these 2000 jobs already in place? Or planned?

Hubertj

smurgen wrote: »

Big news. But sure wfh not going to have an impact lol.

https://twitter.com/business/status/1303061998662561794?s=19

And why would they pay top dollar for it now when they could come back in 12-24 month and get it for a lot cheaper (if they need it). I presume projections they had for increased headcount are out the window for the short term.

Vikings

landofthetree wrote: »

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-09-07/google-abandons-plan-to-rent-dublin-office-for-2-000-workers

Google have pulled out of a deal to rent 202,000 sq ft of office space.

Oh boy.

Not a lot of context in that article. Easy to assume it was adding 2,000 new staff and now they won't be, but with so many variables and unknowns it's impossible to say. Were they planning to relocate a current office, will those potential workers be working from home instead?

hometruths

TheSheriff wrote: »

You certainly haven't lived unless you've spent over 100K on rent over the past 10 years ..... I'd take a mortgage which would be cheaper than my rent everyday of the week. The two extra bedrooms I'd have would be a nice bonus.

All housing has a cost, whether it is rent, mortgage or opportunity cost.

Certainly everything you say right now makes sense given the past 10 years, and would all the more so if you look back in 10 years time and your monthly mortgage payment has remained the same, whilst capital value of house has risen, and rental equivalents have also risen.

If that transpires hindsight will show your housing costs to have been very good value.

But if your mortgage payments increase, capital values fall and rental equivalents fall then your housing costs will have proven to be poor value.

There are some, me included, who believe that interest rates cannot go any lower, whilst capital values and rents are unlikely to go much higher, so I think the balance of probabilities suggest the poor value outcome is more likely.

And I do understand the desire for security of accommodation, starting a family etc - all personal factors that vary from individual to individual.

What annoys me about the whole thing is not what each individual decides is best for their circumstances, but that if it all goes tits up, collectively we all pay for the fall out.

And I also realise it is very easy for me to say don't buy now, you're mad etc, because I already own a house, and the property market has actually been very good to me (on paper!). I realise how fortunate I am.

But the reason I am in that fortunate position is largely due to the fact that I did not buy a house in 05/06/07 when I was seriously considering it.

landofthetree

Hubertj wrote: »

And why would they pay top dollar for it now when they could come back in 12-24 month and get it for a lot cheaper (if they need it). I presume projections they had for increased headcount are out the window for the short term.

Will the developer go ahead with finishing it?

Who the hell would need 202,000 sq ft in Dublin?

Hubertj

landofthetree wrote: »

Will the developer go ahead with finishing it?

Who the hell would need 202,000 sq ft in Dublin?

I’m sure 1 of the government departments would take it at current market rents

smurgen

Hubertj wrote: »

And why would they pay top dollar for it now when they could come back in 12-24 month and get it for a lot cheaper (if they need it). I presume projections they had for increased headcount are out the window for the short term.

When they're all working elsewhere? Probably moving to work from anywhere.

hometruths

landofthetree wrote: »

Will the developer go ahead with finishing it?

Who the hell would need 202,000 sq ft in Dublin?

Handy for social distancing!

Hubertj

smurgen wrote: »

When they're all working elsewhere? Probably moving to work from anywhere.

I don’t think the workers that would have been based there have been hired and I don’t think they will be hired for some time. No point renting a building if you don’t have workers to put in it. They are building offices on barrow st which I think they own so I presume they would fill them before considering further Expansion. This will depend on how economies recover over next couple of years - ad revenue down, cloud services up, dt up, etc. All growth projections are out the window

neutral guy

Not big deal there was work force already in other companies and in already rented property.They simply would change job from one to another staying in same property.The bigger the competition the biger the wages the more property buyers the biger the property prices.Simple
Now because no competition on jobs market wages will be stall/smaller,less demand on market,smaller property prices.

smurgen

schmittel wrote: »

Handy for social distancing!

Google didn't think so.

Assetbacked

Don't be surprised if we see government guidelines published next week which involve measures to get workers back into offices as part of the overall covid road map. The institutional investor lobby is quite powerful and will not want to see this Google move becoming a trend. Losing a big chip company like Google can start a chain reaction.

cubatahavana

Pelezico wrote: »

Yes and your only social outlet...because you cant afford to go out..is to post on boards about the joys of home ownership.

Oh and you must remind everyone just how much your house has increased in value. But you are absolutely broke and will continue to be broke for the next decade.

Please, stop. You have no clue of other people’s circumstances to make the above point. I’m buying a nearly 700k house, I’ll have a big mortgage, and I do not care. I can afford it. I couldn’t give a toss about the price going down.

My apartment that I’m selling at the moment, I’m selling it for nearly 60k less that I paid. Still, not in negative equity, so I’m not complaining.

You’re so much better than everyone else, but still your son lives at home with you, probably putting HIS life on hold.

I moved to Ireland in 2004, worked hard to afford an apartment in 2007, kept working hard through difficult times and saved what I could. For me, to buy a big house to give my son a garden is worth it, even if next year the house is worth less.

OwlsZat

Assetbacked wrote: »

Don't be surprised if we see government guidelines published next week which involve measures to get workers back into offices as part of the overall covid road map. The institutional investor lobby is quite powerful and will not want to see this Google move becoming a trend. Losing a big chip company like Google can start a chain reaction.

They did that in the UK. It's one sure way of guaranteeing another covid wave.

OwlsZat

cubatahavana wrote: »

putting HIS life on hold.

Please stop using this ridiculous turn of phrase. If you don't buy now, your life is not "on hold". Almost as bad as "everything happens for a reason".

neutral guy

Google will get into trouble because work on advertising market.The more companies will close down the less advertisements Google will get and more money Google will lose.Google are huge company and even 1 per cent drop in incomes will be bilions.This step of Google is the signal for existing workers that they can lose jobs.This is huge signal for renting market in Dublin also.

TheSheriff

OwlsZat wrote: »

Please stop using this ridiculous turn of phrase. If you don't buy now, your life is not "on hold". Almost as bad as "everything happens for a reason".

I consider my life on hold as I can't buy now.

So do many others. Nothing ridiculous about it.

Pelezico

OwlsZat wrote: »

Please stop using this ridiculous turn of phrase. If you don't buy now, your life is not "on hold". Almost as bad as "everything happens for a reason".

Buying a house, however overpriced, is all that matters. Everything else is just....waiting.

TheSheriff

Pelezico wrote: »

Buying a house, however overpriced, is all that matters. Everything else is just....waiting.

It's flippant posts like this which have made this place so toxic.

Of course Pelezico, your outlook is the only one which is correct and matters. We should all do as your adult son and move home to save as much as possible.