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Who thinks Trump will win?

whiskeyman

Hope the mods don't mind a new thread, but I just want to see how many of us think Trump will beat Biden in Nov?
I think he just has so much of a populist ground swell and I wouldn't be surprised if 'external' participants get involved in the process.

Do you think he'll get reelected?
Where will that leave America?

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Man with broke phone

What I cant understand is people who have a problem with making america great again.

Surely if you live in america you would want it made great again? Are they burning all the businesses because they want to make america worse than it is?

ExMachina1000

One up side of Biden winning will be when hard left types realise that Biden is centred enough on most issues.

Where will they turn then?

Trump gave them jobs. Biden will give them taxes

Pa ElGrande

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

One up side of Biden winning will be when hard left types realise that Biden is centred enough on most issues.

Where will they turn then?

Trump gave them jobs. Biden will give them taxes

The president does not have the authority to set taxes. The tax system varies across the United States, there are local property taxes or rates, state level taxes on income and sales and federal taxes. Tax policy is going to be determined by the makeup of congress and the state governments, so you could have a Biden presidency and a Republican congress. There is a movement to undo the Reagan era tax cuts.

Here is what is happening recently:

New Jersey hikes gas tax due to revenue lost amid pandemic

Tax hike on California millionaires would create 54% tax rate

California 13.3% Tax Rate May Be Raised To 16.8%...Retroactively

Nashville approves new budget with 34% tax hike, more funds for police, schools

Mr. Karate

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

The president does not have the authority to set taxes. The tax system varies across the United States, there are local property taxes or rates, state level taxes on income and sales and federal taxes. Tax policy is going to be determined by the makeup of congress and the state governments, so you could have a Biden presidency and a Republican congress. There is a movement to undo the Reagan era tax cuts.

Here is what is happening recently:

New Jersey hikes gas tax due to revenue lost amid pandemic

Tax hike on California millionaires would create 54% tax rate

California 13.3% Tax Rate May Be Raised To 16.8%...Retroactively

Nashville approves new budget with 34% tax hike, more funds for police, schools

Congress sets the Federal Taxes [that the President can then either veto or sign into law]

The State taxes are set by your state legislators and signed by the Governor. Which is why each states wildly differ from each other.

https://www.thebalance.com/state-income-tax-rates-3193320

Danzy

Trump back in the lead in Texas and close in Pennsylvania. North Carolina margin of error stuff.

Billy Mays

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

One up side of Biden winning will be when hard left types realise that Biden is centred enough on most issues.

Where will they turn then?

Trump gave them jobs. Biden will give them taxes

You think hard left types don't already know that Biden is centre on most positions?

The only people who think Biden is a radical leftist are the fcukwits who believe everything Trump tells them

road_high

Would like to see Trump beaten but my head is saying he won’t. Pretty shocked with some of the idiots here endorsing Biden like Varadkar- https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/world-news/north-america/us-presidential-election-2020/tanaiste-breaks-with-convention-and-backs-joe-bidens-pick-of-kamala-harris-as-running-mate-39450004.html
This isn’t in our interests however his personally held views. This seemed to get buried in the Covid and Phil Hogan stories

road_high

You forget how close the election actually is now...just weeks away really!

Danzy

Billy Mays wrote: »

You think hard left types don't already know that Biden is centre on most positions?

The only people who think Biden is a radical leftist are the fcukwits who believe everything Trump tells them

On things like Trade and finance Biden is well to the right of Trump.

Pa ElGrande

There are also the house (congress) and senate elections to consider.

All 435 house seats are up for election, and there is also the some of the senate seat, more republicans have to defend eats this time around so they will be depending on Trump to do well.

Most Senate elections reflect states’ presidential votes

Here are the 2020 Senate races to watch as the COVID-19 election comes into focus

Which Key Races Will Determine Who Controls The US Senate?

ExMachina1000

Billy Mays wrote: »

You think hard left types don't already know that Biden is centre on most positions?

The only people who think Biden is a radical leftist are the fcukwits who believe everything Trump tells them

You would imagine so but I doubt it

Tony EH

Danzy wrote: »

On things like Trade and finance Biden is well to the right of Trump.

There are no real differences between Biden or Trump. There are no real differences between the Democrats and the Republicans.

Tweedle Dumb and Tweedle Dumber.

Justin Credible Darts

If Trump wins, we will get all the usual excuses, of rigged election, putin was involved, the post office works for Trump, biden did not get the same air time etc etc etc.

What the biden supporter wont accept is that if Trump wins it will be because it will be was the americans WANT.

What does that tell you ?

BobbyMalone

Justin Credible Darts wrote: »

If Trump wins, we will get all the usual excuses, of rigged election, putin was involved, the post office works for Trump, biden did not get the same air time etc etc etc.

What the biden supporter wont accept is that if Trump wins it will be because it will be was the americans WANT.

What does that tell you ?

If Trump loses, do you not think there will be a 'rigged election' narrative?

Justin Credible Darts

BobbyMalone wrote: »

If Trump loses, do you not think there will be a 'rigged election' narrative?

possibly but I suspect a biden loss would see far more crying than a trump loss.

The biden supporters come across as bigger whiners.
I dont even like trump or the republicans, but the democrats are so full and 2 faced is it any wonder people see through them

Timberrrrrrrr

Justin Credible Darts wrote: »

If Trump wins, we will get all the usual excuses, of rigged election, putin was involved, the post office works for Trump, biden did not get the same air time etc etc etc.

What the biden supporter wont accept is that if Trump wins it will be because it will be was the americans WANT.

What does that tell you ?

Trump has already said, The only way he can lose the election is because its rigged, he has literally got his excuses in early and no matter how much/little he loses by he will cause all sorts of problems.

BobbyMalone

Justin Credible Darts wrote: »

possibly but I suspect a biden loss would see far more crying than a trump loss.

The biden supporters come across as bigger whiners.
I dont even like trump or the republicans, but the democrats are so full and 2 faced is it any wonder people see through them

You'd be wrong on that. Trump was already 'whining' about the 2016 election being rigged before he won. His then running mate had to reassure people that they would 'definitely' accept the results if they lost, but also 'whined' about media bias. And he's doing it again this time around.

It's mad that people who have an interest in this, have clearly seen news items like those mentioned above, but still think that it will be the Democrats doing the 'whining'.

Edit: What Timberrrrrrrr said, I'm a very slow typer.

Tony EH

Justin Credible Darts wrote: »

If Trump wins, we will get all the usual excuses, of rigged election, putin was involved, the post office works for Trump, biden did not get the same air time etc etc etc.

What the biden supporter wont accept is that if Trump wins it will be because it will be was the americans WANT.

What does that tell you ?

You're naivety is astronomical if you don't think the the same gibberish will be spouted by Trump and co. if he loses.

Justin Credible Darts

BobbyMalone wrote: »

You'd be wrong on that. Trump was already 'whining' about the 2016 election being rigged before he won. His then running mate had to reassure people that they would 'definitely' accept the results if they lost, but also 'whined' about media bias. And he's doing it again this time around.

It's mad that people who have an interest in this, have clearly seen news items like those mentioned above, but still think that it will be the Democrats doing the 'whining'.

Edit: What Timberrrrrrrr said, I'm a very slow typer.

I was referring to the supporters of each candidate who will be crying

Eric Cartman

Justin Credible Darts wrote: »

I was referring to the supporters of each candidate who will be crying

After Hillary lost we had protests, a baby balloon made, crying at the inauguration, vandalism, Hillary writing a book and full scale mass investigations into electoral fraud and media supported accusations of Russian interference. Prominent social media and news commentators crying publicly etc...

I think if trump lost sure you'd have a few conspiracy nuts screaming rigged, you'd have a lot of upset people, but I think it would in actuality be a hell of a lot smaller and the media reporting of it would be a lot smaller.

Regardless of the side you're on, its alright to admit that the democratic side has more of a flare for public over-reactions and overdramatics, that can be admitted without compromising support for them or believing they're the better side.

joseywhales

Man with broke phone wrote: »

What I cant understand is people who have a problem with making america great again.

Surely if you live in america you would want it made great again? Are they burning all the businesses because they want to make america worse than it is?

America was already great, Trump just made it a tiny bit worse, still great though.

Danzy

Tony EH wrote: »

You're naivety is astronomical if you don't think the the same gibberish will be spouted by Trump and co. if he loses.

There is a very strange view that he won't leave the White House if he loses.

It's frankly bizarre and self indulgent dinner party boll9xology.

Pa ElGrande

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Trump has already said, The only way he can lose the election is because its rigged, he has literally got his excuses in early and no matter how much/little he loses by he will cause all sorts of problems.

Don't forget the "Russians" they were so influential on the outcome in 2016 it might be interesting to see what they have in store in 2020, and they report the DNC have launched a counter operation called "red-mirage".

Biden’s Chances Rest on a John Podesta-Planned Military Coup, Ballot Harvesting, Police Shootings, and a False Flag

Conclusion

The likelihood that the 2020 election will not produce an agreed winner, barring effective active measures from Trump, is nearly certain. Based on the Northop/Standard model, Trump has an over 90% chance at winning an election if following the rules in place in the past dozen election cycles. This explains why the DNC has introduced as many X factors as possible – a politicized Covid-19 response, slanted news which riles up reliable protest movement assets towards rioting and looting, and a mailed-out ballots scheme which is indistinguishable in effect from known problem vote riggings techniques like ballot harvesting.

It is clear that the DNC wants to produce no clear winner, and use some combination of article XX, XII, and provisions as reinforced by related constitutional provisions for the continuation of government, and NSDP 51.

Because there are so many variables, possible counter measures, and new ‘X factors’ that can be introduced, this is a developing story with no clear outcome now estimable. If it is true that the NSA is backing Trump, then this provides strong reason to believe that this candidate will emerge the winner out of the fray. In either event, future X factors are almost certain.

source

[Deleted User]

Eric Cartman wrote: »

After Hillary lost we had protests, a baby balloon made, crying at the inauguration, vandalism, Hillary writing a book and full scale mass investigations into electoral fraud and media supported accusations of Russian interference. Prominent social media and news commentators crying publicly etc...

I think if trump lost sure you'd have a few conspiracy nuts screaming rigged, you'd have a lot of upset people, but I think it would in actuality be a hell of a lot smaller and the media reporting of it would be a lot smaller.

Regardless of the side you're on, its alright to admit that the democratic side has more of a flare for public over-reactions and overdramatics, that can be admitted without compromising support for them or believing they're the better side.

Eh, there was an investigation into electoral interference and collusion because there was substantial intelligence around it. Numerous members of the administration have been convicted as a result of those findings.

You are correct, there was an investigation into electoral fraud. But that was established by Trump and found no impropriety. It was more the President was trying to claim that he hadn't won the popular vote due to fraud...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidential_Advisory_Commission_on_Election_Integrity

BobbyMalone

Eric Cartman wrote: »

After Hillary lost we had protests, a baby balloon made, crying at the inauguration, vandalism, Hillary writing a book and full scale mass investigations into electoral fraud and media supported accusations of Russian interference. Prominent social media and news commentators crying publicly etc...

There were protests after Obama won (both times), people in tears at the Republican convention, vandalism and let's not forget the protests with all the effigies being burned and lynched - but definitely worse than a large baby-balloon.

I'd be surprised if Trump doesn't write a book if he does lose, but I'm sure you and others will view this as completely different if it does happen.

As for the conspiracies being touted, these are already being put forward by the actual presidential candidate, and were done well in advanced of the 2016 election.

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Regardless of the side you're on, its alright to admit that the democratic side has more of a flare for public over-reactions and overdramatics, that can be admitted without compromising support for them or believing they're the better side.

It's also alright to admit that there was significant overeaction on the Republican side after Obama won (both times).

Pa ElGrande

This is from 2018

Pollster Who Got It Right in 2016 Does It Again

Cahaly managed to pick up support for Trump that all other pollsters missed by employing a unique method that sought to measure support from voters who'd been “inactive” in recent election cycles, as well as adding a question to his surveys designed to isolate the effect of social desirability bias among Trump voters – the concept that people won’t tell pollsters their true intentions for fear of being stigmatized or being politically incorrect.

After asking voters who they were supporting in 2016, the pollster followed up by asking them who they thought their neighbors were supporting, Trump or Clinton. Cahaly consistently found a high degree of variance between who respondents said they were voting for and who they thought their neighbors were voting for, suggesting there was in fact a “shy Trump effect” at play

source

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1303033702528753666

Justin Credible Darts

I believe a lot of people who will vote for trump, wont admit they will vote for him.
They know he is is a orange lunatic, is far too blunt, and says things politically he should not like this story about soldiers being losers.

Thing is he is right about the soldiers, and he is being honest, which is an admirable trait in itself. Saying you are a democrat is seemingly less confrontational especially to the snowflakes of today but secretly I suspect a lot of people who claim they are undecided or voting democrat, will be voting for Trump.

Personally I dont care one bit who wins, in fact I am more interested in the reactions of the outcome, the whinging, excuses, and sour grapes from whichever side loses, the crying by their supporters, and of course how the Irish people who seem obsessed with american politics more than their own also react on here.

will make for an interesting read.

suicide_circus

Surely its very hard to predict a vote when you're not really sure how many voters you have?

kenmm

Justin Credible Darts wrote: »

If Trump wins, we will get all the usual excuses, of rigged election, putin was involved, the post office works for Trump, biden did not get the same air time etc etc etc.

What the biden supporter wont accept is that if Trump wins it will be because it will be was the americans WANT.

What does that tell you ?

There whole system sucks, overly polarised and fu(ks over the voter at every level?

kenmm

Tony EH wrote: »

You're naivety is astronomical if you don't think the the same gibberish will be spouted by Trump and co. if he loses.

Yep will have a full on blame everyone and everything rant. It will be a car crash. Then a massive huff and talk about how he wants to go back to business anyway.

But I don't think we will see that as he has enough tricks up his sleeve to get back in.