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Recession is back baby

ShockChance

Ireland now officially in recession as economy shrinks by 6.1%

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-now-officially-in-recession-as-economy-shrinks-by-6-1-1.4348513

Got absolutely raped in the last recession. At least this time I have a good chunk of savings. Let the fun begin.

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Errashareesh

Deebles McBeebles wrote: »

Strange way to take that post. I see nothing wrong in someone being happy their job is safe, although their pay may not be. We're not going to start this public v private war again at the first sign of an economic downturn are we?

Absolutely. I had a look to see which post they were quoting, expecting something obnoxious (from one of the usual crew) and it's just "makes me glad I work in the public sector" - that's it! I guess a little ill advised but not deserving that reaction. Anyone would like a public sector job.

ChikiChiki

Noah G wrote: »

True but I'm in a big company that has plenty of projects ahead Iv been told they wouldn't hire us unless there was plenty of work ahead and I'm on a low salary , they would let higher salaries go first.

Worse comes to worse I can wait it out have enough saved , no mortgage, kids or debt to pay

You're in a good situation. I would however be very cautious of taking what any company tells you as gospel. Nothing is certain right now.

Demand for Commercial Real Estate will likely fall through the floor with the switch to remote working. The same with housing demand. The whole landscape has been uprooted. It takes time for this to filter through but banks will be cautious of where they put their money.

[Deleted User]

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

He may not be as flippant when the expected pay rise for the public sector is called into question.

So you don't want your young lad to get their pay restored or your old works mates in the fire service?

Plumbthedepths

Deebles McBeebles wrote: »

Strange way to take that post. I see nothing wrong in someone being happy their job is safe, although their pay may not be. We're not going to start this public v private war again at the first sign of an economic downturn are we?

Restoration, P!

Not interested in seeing a war start. Many family members in the PS as I 'm sure plenty of others do have also.
The year to date we are running a deficit of circa 9 billion and climbing . Hardly an environment for a pay rise/ restoration imho. I' m aware there is an agreement and expectation.
Thats my last on the topic.

tonycascarino

A seemingly no deal Brexit will be on the way at the end of the year to finish us off anyway

Plumbthedepths

DubInMeath wrote: »

So you don't want your young lad to get their pay restored or your old works mates in the fire service?

My son is only a Guard 2 and half years, he's quite happy on circa 46k a year.
Retained fire fighters usually have full time jobs as did I when I was in it so did the rest of the lads. So none of us were relaying on the income for a living, long story short if you employer hasn't got the funds to increase your pay what's the alternative?

1990sman

there wont be a recession per se, figures are down because of the lockdown, and in particular the lack of pubs where alcohol is sold at tax levels higher than most countries, same with fags, box of 20 smokes is like 4 euro in some eu countries but u can add a tenner for the privilege here.

people need stuff and they also want stuff so they're gonna buy stuff, lots of stuff and this christmas is going to be epic!

landofthetree

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/tech-giant-google-pulls-out-of-office-deal-in-dublin-docklands-1.4348998?mode=amp

Commercial property in Dublin is beyond screwed.

Who is going to want 202,000 sq ft of offices space in Dublin?

What will Marlet do now? The interest alone on the development must be huge?

Free article on Bloomberg about the meltdown of Dublin commercial property

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-09-07/google-abandons-plan-to-rent-dublin-office-for-2-000-workers

Plumbthedepths

landofthetree wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/tech-giant-google-pulls-out-of-office-deal-in-dublin-docklands-1.4348998?mode=amp

Commercial property in Dublin is beyond screwed.

Also businesses that relied on office workers, coffee shops, cafes for eg.

Feisar

Noah G wrote: »

True but I'm in a big company that has plenty of projects ahead Iv been told they wouldn't hire us unless there was plenty of work ahead and I'm on a low salary , they would let higher salaries go first.

Worse comes to worse I can wait it out have enough saved , no mortgage, kids or debt to pay

They are hiring because they need you now. If they don’t need you in a months time they’ll let you go and think nothing of it.

Man with broke phone

Good apprentices are usually the last to go. The boys and men (and women) who miss alot if days will go first. The lads who make high profile mistakes will follow. Apprentices are usually kept until they sere their time.

ChikiChiki

landofthetree wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/tech-giant-google-pulls-out-of-office-deal-in-dublin-docklands-1.4348998?mode=amp

Commercial property in Dublin is beyond screwed.

Who is going to want 202,000 sq ft of offices space in Dublin?

What will Marlet do now? The interest alone on the development must be huge?

Free article on Bloomberg about the meltdown of Dublin commercial property

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-09-07/google-abandons-plan-to-rent-dublin-office-for-2-000-workers

Thats a gigantic withdrawal, expect more like it. Surely existing leaseholders will see the opportunity off the back of this to get significant reductions in their terms. Ripple effect.

SEPT 23 1989

tonycascarino wrote: »

A seemingly no deal Brexit will be on the way at the end of the year to finish us off anyway

Perfect storm

ChikiChiki

Feisar wrote: »

They are hiring because they need you now. If they don’t need you in a months time they’ll let you go and think nothing of it.

Exactly, whenever a company calls you an asset, just be aware that assets are disposable off the accounts too.

Goes for every single company on this planet.

Mongfinder General

Deebles McBeebles wrote: »

Strange way to take that post. I see nothing wrong in someone being happy their job is safe, although their pay may not be. We're not going to start this public v private war again at the first sign of an economic downturn are we?

Restoration, P!

Foolish move reneging on a pay deal with nurses. The 2% rise next month will see 60% clawed back In taxes. PAYE + PRSI + USC + Pension levy. Government took the piss out of unions on that one.

4068ac1elhodqr

Meanwhile, Chinyyaaa, home of the batsoup-wetmarket is expecting circa 7%+ for the end of year.
Asside from a Q1 negative blip, they were up and running again with positive growth for their Q2.

Plumbthedepths

Orlando Teeny Rhinestone wrote: »

Meanwhile, Chinyyaaa, home of the batsoup-wetmarket is expecting circa 7%+ for the end of year.
Asside from a Q1 negative blip, they were up and running again with positive growth for their Q2.

Massive sales of PPE.

Aron722

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

My son is only a Guard 2 and half years, he's quite happy on circa 46k a year.
Retained fire fighters usually have full time jobs as did I when I was in it so did the rest of the lads. So none of us were relaying on the income for a living, long story short if you employer hasn't got the funds to increase your pay what's the alternative?

Wouldn't call it a great salary considering the job . Around 700 a week
Must be doing alot of over time, as takes 15 years to be on 49k

Plumbthedepths

Aron722 wrote: »

Wouldn't call it a great salary considering the job . Around 700 a week
Must be doing alot of over time, as takes 15 years to be on 49k

He seems to enjoy it so I imagine that has a value too.
He holds a master's so his basic was increased by I think 2 points on the scale. I never got into details with him about it. I think for a 29 year old it's not a bad wage in what's a secure and pensionable job.

[Deleted User]

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

From memory mortgage lending will stop first, house prices will tank.

Great. My rent might go down.

DangerScouse

tonycascarino wrote: »

A seemingly no deal Brexit will be on the way at the end of the year to finish us off anyway

Will make 2008 seem like a walk in the park unfortunately

Noah G

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Exactly, whenever a company calls you an asset, just be aware that assets are disposable off the accounts too.

Goes for every single company on this planet.

True I still don't think I will get let go , I cant see it getting that bad sure just have to wait and see . Main goal would be to start my own business once qualified.

nthclare

salonfire wrote: »

The Irish State is forever repaying bonds as they fall due, even when it was running massive losses. Should those bondholders have been burned too, meaning no-one would lend to the State again?

How would we fund the pandemic spending in that case?

How about you engage your brain before parrotting something you heard someone else say but that you have no clue about.

Can you rephrase your response, sounds like you're a tad triggered by my mistake.

How about you learn more manners and accept I made a mistake instead of having that sociopathic attitude were all tired of.

Of course people will lend to the state again, but sure you're entitled to your agitated reaction to my post.

We won't go down any rabbit holes here just for you to get a few likes and validation from people like yourself.

We'll leave it there then

Necro

salonfire wrote: »

The Irish State is forever repaying bonds as they fall due, even when it was running massive losses. Should those bondholders have been burned too, meaning no-one would lend to the State again?

How would we fund the pandemic spending in that case?

How about you engage your brain before parrotting something you heard someone else say but that you have no clue about.

nthclare wrote: »

Can you rephrase your response, sounds like you're a tad triggered by my mistake.

How about you learn more manners and accept I made a mistake instead of having that sociopathic attitude were all tired of.

Of course people will lend to the state again, but sure you're entitled to your agitated reaction to my post.

We won't go down any rabbit holes here just for you to get a few likes and validation from people like yourself.

We'll leave it there then

Mod:

Indeed you both will, if you can't engage in civil discussion then don't post in this thread.

Man with broke phone

Noah G wrote: »

True I still don't think I will get let go , I cant see it getting that bad sure just have to wait and see . Main goal would be to start my own business once qualified.

In reality if you want a successful business after getting qualified you will really need a few years building a customer base. Small jobs in peoples houses is a mugs game. Every task you do keep a watch of how much time it takes. At the moment hotel rooms and office spaces have successful self employed electricians who can price how many men need to be there for how long. If yiu get it wrong you lose money. If you are desperate for the work you price it too lowand lose money.

If you go out in a van after 4 years chances are you will be scratching a living sometimes and having good weeks and bad weeks.

Get in the biggest company you can. Do good quality work. Be available for any overtime possible. Dont fall out with anybody. Ten years from being qualified you could be on 100 000 a year wage with nixers if you really want them. Recessions come and go. Lads earn that when its good then nothing when its bad.

Be a gentleman as well. Its the most important thing. If the gaffer sees you spitting on the street or leaving your breakfast roll wrapper on the floor even once you may aswell burn down a hotel with bad wiring because you will never get any sort of promotion after it. Remember as big rough building man an important skill to learn is making everybody in your company feel at ease and not threatened. If you want to act the hard man go to an agency and get work with all the lads who act like theyve been to jail. No middle aged middle class woman will pay you 200 euro to change her light fixture.

Montage of Feck

The US vulture funds are running wild here at the moment if the arse falls out of housing market they'll probably hover up the lot.

nthclare

Necro wrote: »

Mod:

Indeed you both will, if you can't engage in civil discussion then don't post in this thread.

Thanks point taken.
I'll leave it there and just engage with people who are more civil.
I should have ignored him, my own fault for reacting.
I won't do it again.

DangerScouse

Montage of Feck wrote: »

The US vulture funds are running wild here at the moment if the arse falls out of housing market they'll probably hover up the lot.

A lot of Chinese buying up property also.

buried

I knew it when the breakfast rolls was going down in price the $hite was heading deep

[Deleted User]

Montage of Feck wrote: »

The US vulture funds are running wild here at the moment if the arse falls out of housing market they'll probably hover up the lot.

this is the fear

if the govt allows property to tank and be bought up by corporate interests there will rightly be havoc, and FG especially should take the brunt of it after setting the ground for it