Assetbacked wrote: » The S&P 500 is down a few percent today with the big tech stocks . The thing is that it is likely to continue to correct; Apple phones, Tesla cars, Netflix new shows etc. aren't subject to increased demand the past few weeks but the stocks have been climbing like crazy. It appears to have been a bit of a dead cat bounce of a recovery aided by QE and this hysteria has run its course. The problem is that a 20% correction in the stock market isn't anything scary considering how high it has climbed but it will lead to panic selling and could start a chain reaction in the system. The "W" shaped recovery is likely to be the outcome with covid and we are going to start moving into that 2nd dip. Perhaps this recession talk might start to be seen in more job losses outside of the airline, tourism and retail sectors as well as asset price declines. It's going to be a bumpy few months as we are at the tail end of the covid crisis and returning to normal - buckle up!
handlemaster wrote: » Are agents still at the same messing about when people call them for property ? A friend was interested in some property and left emails, phone number etc, agents not calling back. I thought agents had moved on from this un-professionalism !
beauf wrote: » 9 months of those stats are before Covid. Logically Covid can't be the cause of something that was happening before it existed. Nationally it's still a rise even after Covid. The other issue is how laggy are the stats from CSO.
King Cantona wrote: » I know it's hard to say but what would people's hunch be for first time buyers in the >€500k market at the moment? We're renting but at a very affordable rate. We've been waiting and saving >18 months and have close to €200k saved. We've two children and our current accommodation is quite small for that. We've seen a house that's pretty much ecactly what we want, but we're worried that if we buy, we could potentially lose out on a lot of the hard work we've saved if prices were to drop 20% (based on a €600k purchase). The usual rhetoric is "if you can afford it, the price you pay doesn't matter" - but it does matter imo as it directly affects the amount I've to borrow, and repay for the next 30 years. If house prices drop 20% and we continue to save at the rate we are, our mortage would be close to 50% or less, rather than 80%. Open to correction on the above.
Cyrus wrote: » You have 200k, if what you want drops by 20% (a 600k house) then it costs 480k and you will have another 40? saved so you have a 50% mortgage right? How is it an 80% mortgage at any point or am i missing something? if you can afford to wait and put life on hold then do it, if its a 20% drop then you have saved 120k, if you believe it will be that, then that is worth another 18 months waiting. all depends on what you want to buy and where, and how common it is.
Hubertj wrote: » Why the big concern about tax and the taxpayer in your recent posts? Looking at your comments on other threads you work for cash only and don’t think you need to bother paying tax. That’s just for other people to pay is it?
awec wrote: » It's fair to say that someone who saves 200k in 18 months is not operating in the same realities as almost anyone else posting on this thread.
King Cantona wrote: » Thanks for the replies. Yes, don't worry, I'm not making any decisions based on a random forum post, but certainly interesting to get perspectives and opinions.:) Regading some of the Q's posed to us: Location is most important to us so new builds and the FTB scheme isn't much use to us, as where we'd like to live, a new build would usually be in excess of €600k (usually way higher) We're willing to wait, but no longer than 9 months - we're just at that stage where we want more space. We had decided that we'll only move if it's a potential forever home AND good value. We'll determine what we perceive to be good value. There always seems to be something around the corner ready to affect the market - last year when we were looking it was Brexit and the trade deal (still relevant) and obviously now it's the impact of COVID. The reason we're leaning towards waiting is that I do think a recession is inevitable, and I also think there will be something in the budget to drive either supply or affordability. From speaking with friends in the bank, they are inundated by requests for mortgages in both AIB and BOI, and from our own experience, KBC are much slower to process our re-application than a year ago. I'd imagine that's a combination of people trading up due to spending more time at home but also and probably a bigger factor, people knowing circumstances will change in their jobs and drawing down whatever they can now.
King Cantona wrote: » Hmm, I can see it read like that but not what I meant. We've close to 200k saved. We've been waiting & saving hard for 18 months actively looking to buy. Not all of the 200k was saved in the past 18 months. Anyway, that info is irrelevant.
PropQueries wrote: » Boom-time subprime lender Stepstone enters liquidation: “The company sold its remaining mortgage portfolio at a deep discount to US distressed debt investment firm Cerberus in 2018. Stepstone’s financial accounts for 2017 showed that it had written down the value of the mortgage book to €53.6 million from its nominal value of about €120 million, reflecting the level of problems in the portfolio.” Irish Times article link here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/boom-time-subprime-lender-stepstone-enters-liquidation-1.4348653
Pelezico wrote: » The "it does not matter" brigade will soon be out in force.
cubatahavana wrote: » Wouldn’t it be great if company A sells 100 million worth of mortgages to company B for 50 million and the mortgage holders would get some discounts from the transactions?
beauf wrote: » You've lost me. What doesn't matter?
Pelezico wrote: » The buy and dont worry about the price brigade. They also say...life is on hold unless you own a house. You must buy or life is empty and meaningless.
TheSheriff wrote: » You must be a property owner, or have you experienced renting a tiny one bed into your 30s, trying to save every month for a mortgage deposit and foregoing most social activities for years (weddings, large trips etc.) Life is most definitely on hold for a large cohort of people To suggest otherwise is simply not true.
Pelezico wrote: » These guys have their deposit in abundance. No scrimping needed. I bet their lives are a blur..busy jobs to earn such a deposit and young children. Nothing is on hold...everything is frenetic. Owning a house wont change much. Some posters immediately default to the life is on hold bit. Just think...you can buy a house and spend hours on the computer every night telling everyone you bought well and they are increasing in value all the time.
TheSheriff wrote: » I agree with you with your comments re; the above family. A 200k deposit is (I would imagine) unusual for a FTB. If I was in their position I would likely be approaching the market differently. But for the vast vast majority of FTB's attaining a property in our current property market requires a huge amount of sacrifice. So again, to dismiss the argument that life is on hold for many people to obtain a property ladder is just being facetious.
