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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Graham

Continued from here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058041687

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TheSheriff

Pelezico wrote: »

The buy and dont worry about the price brigade.

They also say...life is on hold unless you own a house. You must buy or life is empty and meaningless.

You must be a property owner, or have you experienced renting a tiny one bed into your 30s, trying to save every month for a mortgage deposit and foregoing most social activities for years (weddings, large trips etc.)

Life is most definitely on hold for a large cohort of people

To suggest otherwise is simply not true.

Pelezico

beauf wrote: »

You've lost me. What doesn't matter?

The buy and dont worry about the price brigade.

They also say...life is on hold unless you own a house. You must buy or life is empty and meaningless.

The_Conductor

cubatahavana wrote: »

Wouldn’t it be great if company A sells 100 million worth of mortgages to company B for 50 million and the mortgage holders would get some discounts from the transactions?

In an ideal world, yes. However- how many of those loans aren't being repaid- and how many years (if ever) will it take the owner of the debt to foreclose on the property?

The reason for the haircut on the loans- was because of the level of impairment associated with the loans.

Just because you are a good borrower and repaying your debts- does not mean that Sean and Mary up the road have any intention of ever repaying anything. I.e. you are subsidising a lifestyle choice that Sean and Mary have chosen to make.

Thats why you don't get a discount- its because you're covering someone else's debt.

beauf

King Cantona wrote: »

Hmm, I can see it read like that but not what I meant. We've close to 200k saved.

We've been waiting & saving hard for 18 months actively looking to buy. Not all of the 200k was saved in the past 18 months. Anyway, that info is irrelevant.

How long did it take to fall the last time. You'd have to factor that into your decision.

Personally unless I had a limited time window to buy and I had found the ideal property in an ideal location, a dream house, came up. I would wait 12-24 months. But not everyone could wait that long.

beauf

Pelezico wrote: »

The "it does not matter" brigade will soon be out in force.

You've lost me. What doesn't matter?

cubatahavana

PropQueries wrote: »

Boom-time subprime lender Stepstone enters liquidation:

“The company sold its remaining mortgage portfolio at a deep discount to US distressed debt investment firm Cerberus in 2018. Stepstone’s financial accounts for 2017 showed that it had written down the value of the mortgage book to €53.6 million from its nominal value of about €120 million, reflecting the level of problems in the portfolio.”

Irish Times article link here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/boom-time-subprime-lender-stepstone-enters-liquidation-1.4348653

Wouldn’t it be great if company A sells 100 million worth of mortgages to company B for 50 million and the mortgage holders would get some discounts from the transactions?

Hubertj

King Cantona wrote: »

Thanks for the replies. Yes, don't worry, I'm not making any decisions based on a random forum post, but certainly interesting to get perspectives and opinions.:)

Regading some of the Q's posed to us:

Location is most important to us so new builds and the FTB scheme isn't much use to us, as where we'd like to live, a new build would usually be in excess of €600k (usually way higher)

We're willing to wait, but no longer than 9 months - we're just at that stage where we want more space.

We had decided that we'll only move if it's a potential forever home AND good value. We'll determine what we perceive to be good value.

There always seems to be something around the corner ready to affect the market - last year when we were looking it was Brexit and the trade deal (still relevant) and obviously now it's the impact of COVID.

The reason we're leaning towards waiting is that I do think a recession is inevitable, and I also think there will be something in the budget to drive either supply or affordability. From speaking with friends in the bank, they are inundated by requests for mortgages in both AIB and BOI, and from our own experience, KBC are much slower to process our re-application than a year ago. I'd imagine that's a combination of people trading up due to spending more time at home but also and probably a bigger factor, people knowing circumstances will change in their jobs and drawing down whatever they can now.

i think you have answered your own question Sit tight for 6 months and then re-evaluate. Good luck.

awec

King Cantona wrote: »

Hmm, I can see it read like that but not what I meant. We've close to 200k saved.

We've been waiting & saving hard for 18 months actively looking to buy. Not all of the 200k was saved in the past 18 months. Anyway, that info is irrelevant.

It's very relevant as someone in a position to save 200k in 18 months would be in a position to buy a house with cash in a relatively short period of time, which would change the equation quite a bit.

awec

King Cantona wrote: »

Thanks for the replies. Yes, don't worry, I'm not making any decisions based on a random forum post, but certainly interesting to get perspectives and opinions.:)

Regading some of the Q's posed to us:

Location is most important to us so new builds and the FTB scheme isn't much use to us, as where we'd like to live, a new build would usually be in excess of €600k (usually way higher)

We're willing to wait, but no longer than 9 months - we're just at that stage where we want more space.

We had decided that we'll only move if it's a potential forever home AND good value. We'll determine what we perceive to be good value.

There always seems to be something around the corner ready to affect the market - last year when we were looking it was Brexit and the trade deal (still relevant) and obviously now it's the impact of COVID.

The reason we're leaning towards waiting is that I do think a recession is inevitable, and I also think there will be something in the budget to drive either supply or affordability. From speaking with friends in the bank, they are inundated by requests for mortgages in both AIB and BOI, and from our own experience, KBC are much slower to process our re-application than a year ago. I'd imagine that's a combination of people trading up due to spending more time at home but also and probably a bigger factor, people knowing circumstances will change in their jobs and drawing down whatever they can now.

If your reason for waiting is to hold out for a lower price then 9 months is probably not long enough to wait to get any significant savings.

King Cantona

awec wrote: »

It's fair to say that someone who saves 200k in 18 months is not operating in the same realities as almost anyone else posting on this thread.

Hmm, I can see it read like that but not what I meant. We've close to 200k saved.

We've been waiting & saving hard for 18 months actively looking to buy. Not all of the 200k was saved in the past 18 months. Anyway, that info is irrelevant.

King Cantona

Thanks for the replies. Yes, don't worry, I'm not making any decisions based on a random forum post, but certainly interesting to get perspectives and opinions.:)

Regading some of the Q's posed to us:

Location is most important to us so new builds and the FTB scheme isn't much use to us, as where we'd like to live, a new build would usually be in excess of €600k (usually way higher)

We're willing to wait, but no longer than 9 months - we're just at that stage where we want more space.

We had decided that we'll only move if it's a potential forever home AND good value. We'll determine what we perceive to be good value.

There always seems to be something around the corner ready to affect the market - last year when we were looking it was Brexit and the trade deal (still relevant) and obviously now it's the impact of COVID.

The reason we're leaning towards waiting is that I do think a recession is inevitable, and I also think there will be something in the budget to drive either supply or affordability. From speaking with friends in the bank, they are inundated by requests for mortgages in both AIB and BOI, and from our own experience, KBC are much slower to process our re-application than a year ago. I'd imagine that's a combination of people trading up due to spending more time at home but also and probably a bigger factor, people knowing circumstances will change in their jobs and drawing down whatever they can now.

neutral guy

Hubertj wrote: »

Why the big concern about tax and the taxpayer in your recent posts? Looking at your comments on other threads you work for cash only and don’t think you need to bother paying tax. That’s just for other people to pay is it?

I have legal full time work and I pay all taxes.
It is my own bussiness were I spend my time after work and what I do
I strongly recommend you look to your not other people wallets and if you choose seat on sofa and not try earn more this is your own choice
Dont blame other people about they do hard work trying make own lifes and them families lifes better ! Without asking anything from you and government !
My concern about taxes and tax payers is That Every Single person in Republic of Ireland will have pay Covid money they got from government back to government and this will directly affect property prices and property supply !

Pelezico

Cyrus wrote: »

You have 200k, if what you want drops by 20% (a 600k house) then it costs 480k and you will have another 40? saved so you have a 50% mortgage right?

How is it an 80% mortgage at any point or am i missing something?

if you can afford to wait and put life on hold then do it, if its a 20% drop then you have saved 120k, if you believe it will be that, then that is worth another 18 months waiting.

all depends on what you want to buy and where, and how common it is.

Putting life on hold. Ah yes that old chestnut.

If you dont own a house, your life is on hold.

hometruths

King Cantona wrote: »

I know it's hard to say but what would people's hunch be for first time buyers in the >€500k market at the moment?

We're renting but at a very affordable rate. We've been waiting and saving >18 months and have close to €200k saved.

We've two children and our current accommodation is quite small for that. We've seen a house that's pretty much ecactly what we want, but we're worried that if we buy, we could potentially lose out on a lot of the hard work we've saved if prices were to drop 20% (based on a €600k purchase).

The usual rhetoric is "if you can afford it, the price you pay doesn't matter" - but it does matter imo as it directly affects the amount I've to borrow, and repay for the next 30 years. If house prices drop 20% and we continue to save at the rate we are, our mortage would be close to 50% or less, rather than 80%.

Open to correction on the above.

All of the above is not really open to correction - it's a combination of individual circumstances and incontrovertible fact.

It sounds like you have both a lot more cash and common sense than most of the posters on here. Trust your own judgement would be my advice.

Donald Trump

King Cantona wrote: »

I know it's hard to say but what would people's hunch be for first time buyers in the >€500k market at the moment?

We're renting but at a very affordable rate. We've been waiting and saving >18 months and have close to €200k saved.

We've two children and our current accommodation is quite small for that. We've seen a house that's pretty much ecactly what we want, but we're worried that if we buy, we could potentially lose out on a lot of the hard work we've saved if prices were to drop 20% (based on a €600k purchase).

The usual rhetoric is "if you can afford it, the price you pay doesn't matter" - but it does matter imo as it directly affects the amount I've to borrow, and repay for the next 30 years. If house prices drop 20% and we continue to save at the rate we are, our mortage would be close to 50% or less, rather than 80%.

Open to correction on the above.

I'd say that any first time buyer with 2 kids would be looking at you and wondering how you managed to save 200k in 18 months while paying for those two kids and paying rent as well.

Any jobs going where you work?

awec

It's fair to say that someone who saves 200k in 18 months is not operating in the same realities as almost anyone else posting on this thread.

Cyrus

King Cantona wrote: »

I know it's hard to say but what would people's hunch be for first time buyers in the >€500k market at the moment?

We're renting but at a very affordable rate. We've been waiting and saving >18 months and have close to €200k saved.

We've two children and our current accommodation is quite small for that. We've seen a house that's pretty much ecactly what we want, but we're worried that if we buy, we could potentially lose out on a lot of the hard work we've saved if prices were to drop 20% (based on a €600k purchase).

The usual rhetoric is "if you can afford it, the price you pay doesn't matter" - but it does matter imo as it directly affects the amount I've to borrow, and repay for the next 30 years. If house prices drop 20% and we continue to save at the rate we are, our mortage would be close to 50% or less, rather than 80%.

Open to correction on the above.

You have 200k, if what you want drops by 20% (a 600k house) then it costs 480k and you will have another 40? saved so you have a 50% mortgage right?

How is it an 80% mortgage at any point or am i missing something?

if you can afford to wait and put life on hold then do it, if its a 20% drop then you have saved 120k, if you believe it will be that, then that is worth another 18 months waiting.

all depends on what you want to buy and where, and how common it is.

PropQueries

King Cantona wrote: »

I know it's hard to say but what would people's hunch be for first time buyers in the >€500k market at the moment?

We're renting but at a very affordable rate. We've been waiting and saving >18 months and have close to €200k saved.

We've two children and our current accommodation is quite small for that. We've seen a house that's pretty much ecactly what we want, but we're worried that if we buy, we could potentially lose out on a lot of the hard work we've saved if prices were to drop 20% (based on a €600k purchase).

The usual rhetoric is "if you can afford it, the price you pay doesn't matter" - but it does matter imo as it directly affects the amount I've to borrow, and repay for the next 30 years. If house prices drop 20% and we continue to save at the rate we are, our mortage would be close to 50% or less, rather than 80%.

Open to correction on the above.

As you appear to be looking at and can afford at the higher end of the market, I was wondering, if the government does introduce more incentives under the HTB scheme or some variant of it in the next budget, will this impact on your decision to buy a new build home over a second-hand home?

In other words, would a second-hand home have to lower its price in order to incentivise you to purchase it instead of a new build home?

I've read this claim from some commentators over the past few years and was wondering if it has such an impact on changing purchasing decisions in relation to new builds over second-hand homes.

I'm of the opinion it doesn't as most second hand homes would be located in a better location etc. and especially as the current HTB scheme doesn't really add up to much, savings wise.

PokeHerKing

King Cantona wrote: »

I know it's hard to say but what would people's hunch be for first time buyers in the >€500k market at the moment?

We're renting but at a very affordable rate. We've been waiting and saving >18 months and have close to €200k saved.

We've two children and our current accommodation is quite small for that. We've seen a house that's pretty much ecactly what we want, but we're worried that if we buy, we could potentially lose out on a lot of the hard work we've saved if prices were to drop 20% (based on a €600k purchase).

The usual rhetoric is "if you can afford it, the price you pay doesn't matter" - but it does matter imo as it directly affects the amount I've to borrow, and repay for the next 30 years. If house prices drop 20% and we continue to save at the rate we are, our mortage would be close to 50% or less, rather than 80%.

Open to correction on the above.

I'd save for another 18 months and see what 400k cash gets you then.

fliball123

King Cantona wrote: »

I know it's hard to say but what would people's hunch be for first time buyers in the >€500k market at the moment?

We're renting but at a very affordable rate. We've been waiting and saving >18 months and have close to €200k saved.

We've two children and our current accommodation is quite small for that. We've seen a house that's pretty much ecactly what we want, but we're worried that if we buy, we could potentially lose out on a lot of the hard work we've saved if prices were to drop 20% (based on a €600k purchase).

The usual rhetoric is "if you can afford it, the price you pay doesn't matter" - but it does matter imo as it directly affects the amount I've to borrow, and repay for the next 30 years. If house prices drop 20% and we continue to save at the rate we are, our mortage would be close to 50% or less, rather than 80%.

Open to correction on the above.

Well you have to weigh it up as everyone has their own unique circumstance I would factor the following in do.

Will the house be there after you wait for a 20% price fall.
Will there actually be a 20% price fall.
Will we go back into lockdown so you could be back in your small place for another prolonged period of time
Will I get mortgage approval as banks will restrict lending if the conditions for a 20% price fall come to pass (recession/depression, mass permanent job losses)
How safe is yours and your spouses job.
How much do you lose with renting.
How much do you want the house.

I wouldn't listen to anyone on here telling you to buy or not to buy you need to sit down with your partner and think about the pros and cons and either go ahead and buy and take the risk of a price drop and you paying more for the house or stay where you are and take the risk of the property being snapped up by someone else or that you wont get the credit you need to purchase.

Good luck with it, its a hard decision.

awec

King Cantona wrote: »

I know it's hard to say but what would people's hunch be for first time buyers in the >€500k market at the moment?

We're renting but at a very affordable rate. We've been waiting and saving >18 months and have close to €200k saved.

We've two children and our current accommodation is quite small for that. We've seen a house that's pretty much ecactly what we want, but we're worried that if we buy, we could potentially lose out on a lot of the hard work we've saved if prices were to drop 20% (based on a €600k purchase).

The usual rhetoric is "if you can afford it, the price you pay doesn't matter" - but it does matter imo as it directly affects the amount I've to borrow, and repay for the next 30 years. If house prices drop 20% and we continue to save at the rate we are, our mortage would be close to 50% or less, rather than 80%.

Open to correction on the above.

Nobody can answer this for you. You are very cash rich with an enormous deposit, saving at a very fast rate.

How picky are you with regards the property you want? Are you happy to continue to rent for a a number of years if required?

Pelezico

beauf wrote: »

9 months of those stats are before Covid. Logically Covid can't be the cause of something that was happening before it existed. Nationally it's still a rise even after Covid.

The other issue is how laggy are the stats from CSO.

King Cantona wrote: »

I know it's hard to say but what would people's hunch be for first time buyers in the >€500k market at the moment?

We're renting but at a very affordable rate. We've been waiting and saving >18 months and have close to €200k saved.

We've two children and our current accommodation is quite small for that. We've seen a house that's pretty much ecactly what we want, but we're worried that if we buy, we could potentially lose out on a lot of the hard work we've saved if prices were to drop 20% (based on a €600k purchase).

The usual rhetoric is "if you can afford it, the price you pay doesn't matter" - but it does matter imo as it directly affects the amount I've to borrow, and repay for the next 30 years. If house prices drop 20% and we continue to save at the rate we are, our mortage would be close to 50% or less, rather than 80%.

Open to correction on the above.

The "it does not matter" brigade will soon be out in force.

King Cantona

I know it's hard to say but what would people's hunch be for first time buyers in the >€500k market at the moment?

We're renting but at a very affordable rate. We've been waiting and saving >18 months and have close to €200k saved.

We've two children and our current accommodation is quite small for that. We've seen a house that's pretty much ecactly what we want, but we're worried that if we buy, we could potentially lose out on a lot of the hard work we've saved if prices were to drop 20% (based on a €600k purchase).

The usual rhetoric is "if you can afford it, the price you pay doesn't matter" - but it does matter imo as it directly affects the amount I've to borrow, and repay for the next 30 years. If house prices drop 20% and we continue to save at the rate we are, our mortage would be close to 50% or less, rather than 80%.

Open to correction on the above.

Mic 1972

handlemaster wrote: »

Are agents still at the same messing about when people call them for property ? A friend was interested in some property and left emails, phone number etc, agents not calling back. I thought agents had moved on from this un-professionalism !

I usually call agents and arrange for viewing over the phone. That way always works.
Don't email them through MyHome as they never reply

PropQueries

Boom-time subprime lender Stepstone enters liquidation:

“The company sold its remaining mortgage portfolio at a deep discount to US distressed debt investment firm Cerberus in 2018. Stepstone’s financial accounts for 2017 showed that it had written down the value of the mortgage book to €53.6 million from its nominal value of about €120 million, reflecting the level of problems in the portfolio.”

Irish Times article link here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/boom-time-subprime-lender-stepstone-enters-liquidation-1.4348653

Assetbacked

Assetbacked wrote: »

The S&P 500 is down a few percent today with the big tech stocks . The thing is that it is likely to continue to correct; Apple phones, Tesla cars, Netflix new shows etc. aren't subject to increased demand the past few weeks but the stocks have been climbing like crazy. It appears to have been a bit of a dead cat bounce of a recovery aided by QE and this hysteria has run its course. The problem is that a 20% correction in the stock market isn't anything scary considering how high it has climbed but it will lead to panic selling and could start a chain reaction in the system. The "W" shaped recovery is likely to be the outcome with covid and we are going to start moving into that 2nd dip. Perhaps this recession talk might start to be seen in more job losses outside of the airline, tourism and retail sectors as well as asset price declines. It's going to be a bumpy few months as we are at the tail end of the covid crisis and returning to normal - buckle up!

Some mad story emerging about the S&P500 drop last week which also potentially explains the climb back from its March lows so quickly while the US economy was frozen. Essentially, Soft Bank (Japanese tech unicorn investor, backed by Saudi billions) singlehandedly bet on a market surge via derivatives which may have lead to the markets recovering rather than the recovery being based on fundamentals of the companies within the stock market.

Potential subscription needed for these;

https://www.ft.com/content/41970bab-beb5-4e83-aa78-29e939f4041b

https://www.ft.com/content/9e5827e9-893a-453e-b28d-88c1c0adc9d5

Free articles too on it;

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-nasdaq-whale-may-have-triggered-the-stock-markets-brutal-rout-claims-report-11599234572?mod=home-page

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/speculation-emerges-over-identity-mystery-marketwide-call-buyer

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-spots-historic-inversion-market

I also spotted something in The Currency this morning about the big tech companies and behaviour involving their Irish entities and repatriating cash to the US which may have lead to their big growth the past few years and may not be the case going forward;

https://www.thecurrency.news/articles/23438/double-irish-cash-has-fuelled-a-silicon-valley-tech-bubble-will-it-burst-before-the-us-election

Of relevance to property is probably the demand side as it relates to the continued growth of the big tech companies and what will happen once the markets correct, aided by the covid shock.

handlemaster

Are agents still at the same messing about when people call them for property ? A friend was interested in some property and left emails, phone number etc, agents not calling back. I thought agents had moved on from this un-professionalism !

Assetbacked

The_Conductor wrote: »

The Kennedy Wilson stuff- isn't aimed at us mortals- they're high end executive units, complete with concierge teams, security to keep the riff-raff out and dripping in high end furnishings, appliances and white goods.

Most normal people aren't looking for this sort of letting.

Unfortunately one beds for 1900 aren't actually miles off average rent for one beds in Dublin which, for D1-D14 vary from 1500-1900 (https://www.daft.ie/report/ronan-lyons-2020q1-daftrentalprice) . These KW rentals are market standard prices unfortunately but seeing so much supply being advertised to rent could be like the Davy report comment in 05 about there being plenty of supply.

awec

The_Conductor wrote: »

The Kennedy Wilson stuff- isn't aimed at us mortals- they're high end executive units, complete with concierge teams, security to keep the riff-raff out and dripping in high end furnishings, appliances and white goods.

Most normal people aren't looking for this sort of letting.

Kennedy Wilson undertook a big refurbishment in Central Park in the past number of years, when a tenant left the place would be re-decorated entirely and all new furniture brought in. Brought in concierge etc.

Really been trying to target the higher end of the market more.

But it's not executives letting these, by and large it's just young professionals.

The_Conductor

Assetbacked wrote: »

The 750EUR voucher is essentially a month's rent for free so that's around 9% off asking for committing to a full year.

Kennedy Wilson have also done a big apartment drop on Daft, lovely apartments but starting at around 1900 for one bedrooms! Here are their advertised listings (Central Park seems to have two separate listings);
https://www.daft.ie/dublin/multi-units-for-rent/capital-dock-82-sir-john-rogersons-quay-grand-canal-dock-dublin-162025/

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/multi-units-for-rent/south-circular-road-dublin-8-dublin-185433/

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/multi-units-for-rent/the-gasworks-barrow-street-dublin-4-dublin-178641/

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/multi-units-for-rent/by-kennedy-wilson-dublin-8-dublin-178864/

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/multi-units-for-rent/sandford-lodge-ranelagh-dublin-178957/

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/multi-units-for-rent/central-park-leopardstown-dublin-178465/

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/multi-units-for-rent/central-park-leopardstown-dublin-181051/

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/multi-units-for-rent/castleforbes-road-dublin-1-dublin-178958/

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/multi-units-for-rent/brewery-road-stillorgan-dublin-179192/

The Kennedy Wilson stuff- isn't aimed at us mortals- they're high end executive units, complete with concierge teams, security to keep the riff-raff out and dripping in high end furnishings, appliances and white goods.

Most normal people aren't looking for this sort of letting.