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Who thinks Trump will win?

whiskeyman

Hope the mods don't mind a new thread, but I just want to see how many of us think Trump will beat Biden in Nov?
I think he just has so much of a populist ground swell and I wouldn't be surprised if 'external' participants get involved in the process.

Do you think he'll get reelected?
Where will that leave America?

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bobbyy gee

Electorial college
https://time.com/5579161/presidents-elected-electoral-college/

Timberrrrrrrr

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Both are probably not in perfect health. They are both old men above 70 years of age. I'd imagine Biden's physical health might be better as he is quite trim.

Mentally though Biden really seems to be dithering and stumbling through speeches and just brings nothing in comparison to Trump.

The debates will leave Joe Biden nowhere to hide. His team cant save him when its 1v1

You obviously haven't seen any of his recent speeches so :rolleyes:

AllForIt

bobbyy gee wrote: »

Electorial college
https://time.com/5579161/presidents-elected-electoral-college/

Isn't that the whole point of doing it the Electoral College way anyway?

It reminds me of this argument in the UK where they don't have a PR system. But when Labour got in under Tony Blair by a landslide, you didn't hear much complaints about their 'undemocratic' voting system then. And they didn't do anything to change it either over their 10+ years in government when you'd think they'd be the one's to sort that out being a Left wing party.

It's always when the right-wingers come through that you hear about the 'undemocratic' voting system. Why is that?

Wanderer78

AllForIt wrote:

It reminds me of this argument in the UK where they don't have a PR system. But when Labour got in under Tony Blair by a landslide, you didn't hear much complaints about their 'undemocratic' voting system then. And they didn't do anything to change it either over their 10+ years in government when you'd think they'd be the one's to sort that out being a Left wing party.

Blairs labour was economically to the right, similar to Clinton and Obamas dems, maybe this was why? I'd imagine there was some people up in arms after their elections, over this

LillySV

If the stuff about insulting the war dead gets more traction, then he is finished . Families there with history of going to war vote for him as he promises to look after America ....the won’t give him votes if they think he insulted their dead ones

Wanderer78

LillySV wrote:

If the stuff about insulting the war dead gets more traction, then he is finished . Families there with history of going to war vote for him as he promises to look after America ....the wonâ€™t give him votes if they think he insulted their dead ones

True, but millions will still vote for him, no matter what he says or does, this is gonna be extremely close

ExMachina1000

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

You obviously haven't seen any of his recent speeches so :rolleyes:

Yes Joe Biden has been continuously weak and dull throughout.

tinpib

For big global events like this I always keep an eye on the prices on Betfair.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics-betting-2378961

I did the same for Brexit, the recent UK and Irish elections etc

What's interesting in this one is that Trump went out to about 2/1 at the height of the George Floyd protests, so roughly early June. But since then he has steadily shortened, to where earlier this week, on Wednesday I think, himself and young Joe Biden were exactly the same price.

Trump has drifted ever so slightly again.

Click on the graph icon beside Trump's name to see the price change over time. but unfortunately you have no idea of time the graph represents, is it minutes, hours, days, weeks??

Timberrrrrrrr

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Yes Joe Biden has been continuously weak and dull throughout.

Proof that you haven't watched a single speech of Bidens.

Wanderer78

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Proof that you haven't watched a single speech of Bidens.

to be fair, he hasnt been great, but hes definitely far better than the other fella

briany

LillySV wrote: »

If the stuff about insulting the war dead gets more traction, then he is finished . Families there with history of going to war vote for him as he promises to look after America ....the won’t give him votes if they think he insulted their dead ones

Yeah, Trump's a man who once said (of a fellow Republican, no less) - "He's a war hero because he was captured. I like people who weren't captured, OK? I hate to tell ya..."

Any other person says something as controversial as that, and they're absolutely finished. How many things has Trump done or said, or been on the record as doing or saying, which would fairly wreck the career of a conventional politician?

Pa ElGrande

briany wrote: »

Yeah, Trump's a man who once said (of a fellow Republican, no less) - "He's a war hero because he was captured. I like people who weren't captured, OK? I hate to tell ya..."

Any other person says something as controversial as that, and they're absolutely finished. How many things has Trump done or said, or been on the record as doing or saying, which would fairly wreck the career of a conventional politician?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwLt4XE1i2s

briany

I probably should have said, "Any other politician". Even then, any other politician beyond the Trump cult where all that matters is the message, and the attitude, than who you are, what you do, or what you say outside of that.

[Deleted User]

briany wrote: »

Yeah, Trump's a man who once said (of a fellow Republican, no less) - "He's a war hero because he was captured. I like people who weren't captured, OK? I hate to tell ya..."

Any other person says something as controversial as that, and they're absolutely finished. How many things has Trump done or said, or been on the record as doing or saying, which would fairly wreck the career of a conventional politician?

It's actually very unexplainable (well I can't figure it anyway)

It's been 4 years since the "p***y" comments came to light and at the time people thought that would be the end of him, and quiet frankly I think it would have been the end of any other politician.

But he's still there.

Justin Credible Darts

briany wrote: »

Yeah, Trump's a man who once said (of a fellow Republican, no less) - "He's a war hero because he was captured. I like people who weren't captured, OK? I hate to tell ya..."

Any other person says something as controversial as that, and they're absolutely finished. How many things has Trump done or said, or been on the record as doing or saying, which would fairly wreck the career of a conventional politician?

Devils advocate here, but if he had been smart enough to avoid capture, would he still be a war hero ?
People always bandy that word around, or when a cop gets shot by a bank robber for example,and he gets called a hero, but his partner who avoided a bullet is not a hero, If said cop was not killed would he still be a hero ?

I guess I can ask this, but you are right, a president should not say things about captured soldiers and not expect to get comeback, even if he was being honest and truthful.

Then since when did honesty and truth matter, its all about perception with this liars...I mean politicians

Limpy

I don't know if Trump said whats being reported but I agree that soldiers who die in wars are loser's and suckers.

Afghanistan, Irag ect. All loser's and suckers.

Brussels Sprout

tinpib wrote: »

Click on the graph icon beside Trump's name to see the price change over time. but unfortunately you have no idea of time the graph represents, is it minutes, hours, days, weeks??

It's very frustrating that they do that and it has to be intentional. Almost like they want to give you the illusion of full transparency but omitting the crucial information of having a meaningful time-axis. Is it even linear? I would assume so but with no markings whatsoever it is impossible to say for sure.

In a similar vein the Biden graph of matched prices is difficult to parse since it includes the period from before he won the primary. This means that it includes all of the high prices that were made when he looked in trouble, before the South Carolina primary. The Scale of the Y-axis therefore goes from 0-100 which means that at the current price (~1.98) it looks like it's at 0 and any small movements are entirely imperceptible.

Timberrrrrrrr

Limpy wrote: »

I don't know if Trump said whats being reported but I agree that soldiers who die in wars are loser's and suckers.

Afghanistan, Irag ect. All loser's and suckers.

How edgy of you :rolleyes:

ExMachina1000

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Proof that you haven't watched a single speech of Bidens.

He is as dull as dish water. He is a walking wet paper bag .

Boring, bland, confused old man.

I think Trump is a much better candidate and should become president re elected

Timberrrrrrrr

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

He is as dull as dish water. He is a walking wet paper bag .

Boring, bland, confused old man.

I think Trump is a much better candidate and should become president re elected

Of course tou do, you think the sun shines out of his orange arse.

He has proven over the last couple.of days that not only is he a liar but he has no respect for the american people, hopefully this time next year he is sitting in a cell wondering how it all went wrong.

ExMachina1000

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Of course tou do, you think the sun shines out of his orange arse.

He has proven over the last couple.of days that not only is he a liar but he has no respect for the american people, hopefully this time next year he is sitting in a cell wondering how it all went wrong.

Hopedully thiis time next year he will be sitting in the oval office working on repeating the record employment figuresfor all Americans and record breaking economy that he previously achieved.

Brussels Sprout

NIMAN wrote: »

I think he will scrape in again.

And if he does, it will be gas listening to Tubridy, Matt Cooper and the rest of the Irish media who seem to despise him so much.

Forrachmore wrote: »

Hope he does if for no other reason to piss off the irish media

Justin Credible Darts wrote: »

if trump wins the fallout will be priceless. The fact people preferred trump over hilary in the first place tells you what they thought of her, if Trump wins again it shows what they think of Biden too.

Pretty telling when people say they want to see Trump win just to spite others as opposed to anything positive about himself. A sign of the times I guess but it's not a sign of a healthy discourse.

briany

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

He is as dull as dish water. He is a walking wet paper bag .

Boring, bland, confused old man.

I think Trump is a much better candidate and should become president re elected

That's a 'no', then, to the question asked...

Timberrrrrrrr

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Hopedully thiis time next year he will be sitting in the oval office working on repeating the record employment figuresfor all Americans and record breaking economy that he previously achieved.

I'm sure the families of the circa 200,000 dead from Covid19 and the families of dead American soldiers will agree with you :rolleyes:

Man with broke phone

He publicly asked Iran to not execute a guy who was arrested at a peaceful protest.

Are the Trump haters going to be suddenly in favour of killing peaceful protestors now?

Waiting for some Trump infatuated boards members to start pulling up links about how figures show that killing peaceful iranian protestors actually increases the bee population in Turkey.

Hes right about army men being suckers. Give up their youth and lose the first 5 to ten years of their career overseas risking their life to return with little skills of any use in america. Take a minimum wage job in their late twenties and start again or go to some foreign country doing private security. Someof them come back maimed or dead. What did they achieve?

If somebody paid me 20 euro to paint their house Id be a sucker. If somebody gave me a job running around with a gun getting shot at and suicide bombed for little more than minimum wage with little to no chance of any decent promotion and once Im not in tip top shape I will be managed out, what does that make me?

A Sucker Im afraid. The most peaceful president of all time does not want to make suckers out of poor young farmers from middle america.

ExMachina1000

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

I'm sure the families of the circa 200,000 dead from Covid19 and the families of dead American soldiers will agree with you :rolleyes:

Neither set of deaths Trumps fault.

Didn't Joe Biden vote in favour of the Iraq invasion?
I presume you are holding him acountable

800k deaf in the Iraq/Afghanistan war. Biden is directly responsible using your logic

Timberrrrrrrr

Man with broke phone wrote: »

He publicly asked Iran to not execute a guy who was arrested at a peaceful protest.

Yeah they will listen to the guy who assassinated one of their top generals.

Are the Trump haters going to be suddenly in favour of killing peaceful protestors now?

These peaceful protestors were lucky to have lived after being shot by the police.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-07-31/video-protester-had-hands-up-when-lapd-officer-shot

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0IxA6fbWoM

Waiting for some Trump infatuated boards members to start pulling up links about how figures show that killing peaceful iranian protestors actually increases the bee population in Turkey.

Hes right about army men being suckers. Give up their youth and lose the first 5 to ten years of their career overseas risking their life to return with little skills of any use in america. Take a minimum wage job in their late twenties and start again or go to some foreign country doing private security. Someof them come back maimed or dead. What did they achieve?

Better to be an angry voy sitting in the bedroom mashing the keyboard right?

If somebody paid me 20 euro to paint their house Id be a sucker. If somebody gave me a job running around with a gun getting shot at and suicide bombed for little more than minimum wage with little to no chance of any decent promotion and once Im not in tip top shape I will be managed out, what does that make me?

Unambitious

Sucker Im afraid. The most peaceful president of all time does not want to make suckers out of poor young farmers from middle america.

Blah blah blah

Timberrrrrrrr

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Neither set of deaths Trumps fault.

Didn't Joe Biden vote in favour of the Iraq invasion?
I presume you are holding him acountable

800k deaf in the Iraq/Afghanistan war. Biden is directly responsible using your logic

are the soldiers that died in WW1 and WW2 losers and suckers too?

Cirrus Incus

I don't get the poll results for this thread. All the objective data from forecast models points to a very likely Biden win. Trump will most definitely dispute the election result and claim mail-in voting fraud if he loses.

ExMachina1000

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

are the soldiers that died in WW1 and WW2 losers and suckers too?

Wouldn't it be better to answer a question rather than reply with another one.

Based on his voting record Joe is a war monger. Trump is a man of peace