Assetbacked wrote: » The S&P 500 is down a few percent today with the big tech stocks . The thing is that it is likely to continue to correct; Apple phones, Tesla cars, Netflix new shows etc. aren't subject to increased demand the past few weeks but the stocks have been climbing like crazy. It appears to have been a bit of a dead cat bounce of a recovery aided by QE and this hysteria has run its course. The problem is that a 20% correction in the stock market isn't anything scary considering how high it has climbed but it will lead to panic selling and could start a chain reaction in the system. The "W" shaped recovery is likely to be the outcome with covid and we are going to start moving into that 2nd dip. Perhaps this recession talk might start to be seen in more job losses outside of the airline, tourism and retail sectors as well as asset price declines. It's going to be a bumpy few months as we are at the tail end of the covid crisis and returning to normal - buckle up!
schmittel wrote: » Surely it will suit those people who are in secure employment and can comfortably afford to take on a mortgage? i.e the banks will lend less, because there are less people in employment, but they will continue to lend affordable mortgages to people with secure incomes.
Springy Turf wrote: » Sure, if you are still in secure employment when everything else burns around you, you'll be in a good position. But if it gets to that stage, there will have to be tax hikes, public sector pay cuts and freezes, layoffs in industries that right now seem secure and so on. Pick most jobs, and you will be able to see how a couple of vulnerable industries crashing will hurt them. (for example most big tech is dependant on advertising. if the advertisers are hit, big tech is hit).
Pelezico wrote: » 27 falls today 11 rises.
Hubertj wrote: » 12.95 Fine Gael TDs are landlords? Who is the 0.95?
Dwarf.Shortage wrote: » 13/47 = .3714, spurious accuracy to not round to 37%. Very little value in being difficult for the sake of it.
brisan wrote: » I think someone stated we are heading for deflation ?????
Mic 1972 wrote: » The consensus view among economists is that sustained inflation occurs when a nation's money supply growth outpaces economic growth. If we are all printing a lot of money while the economy is shrinking we are going to face high inflation. That's what we are going to see
The_Conductor wrote: » They've already cancelled the tax cuts for the 'squeezed middle' that were highlighted in the general election. The public sector have been informed they are having a complete freeze on recruitment (but no job cuts) and the use of contract staff is to be wound down as expeditiously as possible. There is a 2% pay restoration for the public sector under the last pay agreement, due to be paid on the 1st of October- which hasn't been cancelled/postponed (yet) but it has been highlighted that any futher pay restoration will be put off for at least a number of years. The big spending Departments (esp. DSEAP) are being told to identify savings- and for the purpose of this exercise- identifying fraud is not to be considered a saving- but active steps should be taken to manage disbursements under the various subheads. The HSE and health in general- are going to have to adjust to living within their means- and we still have a deficit of 28-30 billion for 2020 and at least 20 billion for 2021 (and thats making a working assumption that we don't get slaughtered over Brexit from the 1st Jan. There are torrid times ahead of us.
Springy Turf wrote: » Sure, if you are still in secure employment when everything else burns around you, you'll be in a good position. But if it gets to that stage, there will have to be tax hikes, public sector pay cuts and freezes, layoffs in industries that right now seem secure and so on. Pick most jobs, and you will be able to see how a couple of vulnerable industries crashing will hurt them. (for example most big tech is dependant on advertising. if the advertisers are hit, big tech is hit. If companies are getting squeezed, advertising spend gets squeezed).
PropQueries wrote: » Maybe. But, if that is true, interest rates rise and the impact on Irish property values will be significant (on the downside).
Hubertj wrote: » what? wheres 47 coming from? TDs? I thought they had 35? i was taking the p*ss anyway.
schmittel wrote: » Agree with you on the above. The reason I asked is we're told in this thread that if you have a secure income and can afford the mortgage at current prices, and it is a property that will suit for 10 years+ people should go ahead and buy now, negative equity is only a problem if you want to sell etc etc. These posters also say they don't expect prices to rise - they'll either remain pretty much the same or drop slightly. Nothing to be overly concerned about. But some of the same posters also say that if prices do drop substantially, everything will go to hell in a handcart, you'll lose your job, we're heading back to the 1980s, be careful what you wish for etc etc. These points of view seem a bit contradictory. Considering all of the above the rational thing to do is wait and see. If your job is secure as you think as it is you'll have no problem buying a property at the same or less than today's prices.If your job is not as secure as you think it is, then you should probably not be considering taking out a 30 year mortgage at the minute.
brisan wrote: » There are quite a few on here who disagree with the bit in bold and fully intend to do the exact opposite
schmittel wrote: » Agree with you on the above. The reason I asked is we're told in this thread that if you have a secure income and can afford the mortgage at current prices, and it is a property that will suit for 10 years+ people should go ahead and buy now, negative equity is only a problem if you want to sell etc etc. These posters also say they don't expect prices to rise - they'll either remain pretty much the same or drop slightly. Nothing to be overly concerned about. But some of the same posters also say that if prices do drop substantially, everything will go to hell in a handcart, you'll lose your job, we're heading back to the 1980s, be careful what you wish for etc etc. These points of view seem a bit contradictory. Considering all of the above the rational thing to do is wait and see. If your job is secure as you think as it is you'll have no problem buying a property at the same or less than today's prices. If your job is not as secure as you think it is, then you should probably not be considering taking out a 30 year mortgage at the minute.
Hubertj wrote: » If you look at the varying opinions provided on this thread it’s quite clear that many people don’t think rationally when it comes to property. Doom merchants, socialists, head in the sanders, know it alls, know nothings, spoofers. Very diverse.
neutral guy wrote: » In couple words the more we spend for bread the less we have for property because our wages will not growing with same speed as inflation.For that reason property prices will fall because not many people will have money..For that reason we will have deflation. If we look at inflation/deflation curves during the recessions we will see that the more billions was printed the bigger deflation we had ! With every last recession we had bigger deflation and bigger property prices fall . The ECB printed billions in last 10 years did not moved inflation forward. Why ? Because money was printed for banks not for people In this recession we will have even bigger deflation but only if government will not give money for free as they did during Covid As far we see now the government cut people access to free money what mean we will have deflation again The wage subsidy cut,same as other options to get free money. Every bussines which takes free loans has serious bancruptcy risk because money has to be returned !
fliball123 wrote: » Well the good news for people going bankrupt is that the family home is always off the table
neutral guy wrote: » Well,at the moment we have young bussines /startup family with good bit of money saved before Covid. The guy tells his woman Love,we have 2 choices The first one save our bussiness and lose our savings for our house Or lose the savings for the house and try save our bussiness I am pretty sure today many busines families has this choice What would you choose ?
Springy Turf wrote: » Seems like a lose lose situation there!
