Mic 1972 wrote: » I agree that LLs paytax, but you can't assume that 51% is what every LL is paying in tax. A professional LL with 3 apartments rented out and no job will pay 20% on the first 39K and then 40% on the rest. Once you have accounted for tax deduction, you are probably going to have an income that falls within the 20% tax band
The_Conductor wrote: » In all fairness- this is based on implausibly low volumes of sales- such that it is largely meaningless. Until there are normal volumes of property (insofar as anything is normal) hitting the market- its very hard to read anything into trends. Everyone is predicting a significant number of BTL properties starting to hit the market from late Jan 21 onwards- as the current restrictions protecting covid payment recipients expires. Also- the upward trend- can be explained by the first time buyer market rising to take account of enhanced grants for first time buyers being absorbed by developers (while they can get them). There are a lot of artificial constructs offering artificial support to the housing market.
The_Conductor wrote: » And RTE, also owned by the taxpayer- is across the road......... Once upon a time Donnybrook was out in the countryside and land was plentiful. Why not banish RTE to somewhere in Meath- they'd be welcomed with open arms- and why does Dublin Bus need a depot in Donnybrook? Because they had one 50 years ago? Times change. We need high density developments, a removal of height restrictions- and public bodies to stop hoarding improbably valuable sites in the manner in which Dublin Bus, RTE and others are doing. Also- if/when RTE/Dublin Bus (and others) sell property in Donnybrook (or elsewhere) the funds should revert to the exchequer- and not into the black hole of the finances of the organisation- as has been tradition.
fliball123 wrote: » I know that I am talking to a different poster and you need to follow what was said, some people are saying landlords are making a killing I am simply pointing out the fact that 51% goes straight back to the state + property tax and if the landlord has a mortgage then in a lot of cases they making little or nothing on the property
Mic 1972 wrote: » the market is back at 2018 price levels, trending uphttps://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/b52f2a466477d05576bc/?s=commuter
PropQueries wrote: » Not even that. There's a massive site literally a 5 minute walk away owned by Dublin Bus (i.e. the taxpayer). The could have even kept the depot/ garage and built on top of it. Site values don't matter when the state owns the land already and they insist on having social housing in the area.
Smouse156 wrote: » 4) The market topped in 2018 due to peek affordability and has remained relative flat since then. It will only start to tick down when we end up with an oversupply which is years away.
The_Conductor wrote: » It is Donnybrook- so it is plausible. You're paying for the area rather than the units. The bigger question is why the local authority are going out of their way to buy social housing units in probably the most expensive postal code in the country.
CorkRed93 wrote: » Laughable.
sanfranbest wrote: » Greedy or clever? Looks like there was only one cottage on this site, Developer demolished the cottage and built two cottages on the site, They are both 80sq m , but with bad natural light and not a great design, They were first listed for 645k a few months ago, then with no buyers, they dropped the price to 627,500 Should the developer have gone with a really nice bigger house and not tried to squeeze two smaller cottages onto the site???https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/20-arbutus-place-2-bed-study-portobello-dublin-8/4409698 Your Thoughts???
Sarn wrote: » You’ve posted this multiple times in this thread and I can see the logic of it. However, you are talking about a hypothetical increase in mortgage interest rates of 3-3.75% in 5 years. It could happen, but you can’t put your life on hold worrying about rate changes in the medium term. The central bank also has mechanisms open to it to protect banks and indirectly influence mortgage lending. All it would take is relax the loan to income multiple to x4, or the banks could reduce their margin on the interest rates. These would minimise the impact of interest rate rises. €300,000 at 6% over 30 years would cost €1,800. Many people are paying that in rent, if affordability criteria by the banks were relaxed, that would also counter rate rises. I am not advocating any of the above, as we really don’t want people taking on more debt, just pointing out that there are ways to counter against rate rises.
PropQueries wrote: » I put some numbers into a mortgage repayment calculator. As you can see below, if a couple that is approved for a maximum €300,000 mortgage and buys today, a similar couple with a similar repayment capacity would only be approved for a mortgage of €200,000 in 5 years time if mortgage interest rates did increase by 3%. This doesn't impact the buyer today but it does impact them if they wish to sell in 5 years times as most similar potential buyers with a similar repayment capacity would be approved for a significantly lower value mortgage. If interest rates rise, it will have a a very very negative impact on Irish residential house prices. Monthly repayments on a typical 30-year mortgage of €300,000 at 3% = €1,264.81 Monthly repayments on a typical 30-year mortgage of €200,000 at 6% = €1,199.10
Bass Reeves wrote: » You have waffeled about this before most mortgages are proofed for a 2-3% rise in interest rates. Mortages lending will not be effect until rates rise 4-6% above present rates. At present Mortgages repayments are 60-80% of rental costs. If inflation happens labour costs go up and build costs go up eith house prices go up or supply drops. As Bertie would said Your waffling
PropQueries wrote: » Property won't protect against inflation either. If inflation rises, interest rates rise. If interest rates rise by even a few percent, residential house prices in Ireland collapse. I put some numbers into a mortgage repayment calculator. As you can see below, if a couple that is approved for a maximum €300,000 mortgage and buys today, a similar couple with a similar repayment capacity would only be approved for a mortgage of €200,000 in 5 years time if mortgage interest rates did increase by 3%. This doesn't impact the buyer today but it does impact them if they wish to sell in 5 years times as most similar potential buyers with a similar repayment capacity would be approved for a significantly lower value mortgage. If interest rates rise, it will have a a very very negative impact on Irish residential house prices. Monthly repayments on a typical 30-year mortgage of €300,000 at 3% = €1,264.81 Monthly repayments on a typical 30-year mortgage of €200,000 at 6% = €1,199.10 So, basically, if inflation rises to 6% and interest rates rise by only 3% to keep it a bit under control (allowing for the ECB allowing inflation to exceed their target for a few years), the money in the safe loses 6% per annum, but I would lose c. 30% immediately on the investment property I bought.
Bass Reeves wrote: » With a semi lockdown still in place people will still continue to build up savings. Any vaccine will be another 9-12 months before general population are vaccinated and total lockdown ends. From that savings will continue to climb. What posters are failing to accept is that while all the savings will not effect property prices some of it will. Not everyone is savings extra but some are. Not everyone is saving a deposit but some are. Savings are more likely to be spend on big ticket items rather than whittle away on weekends away. Some will spend this extra savings on cars or once in a lifetime holidays. But for other its will help them to reach there deposit sooner. It will also help breach( or maybe increase them) differences between house prices and mortgages. If only a faction of those extra savings are directed at house purchases it will impact the market through higher labour and building costs and extra house buyers It will not protect against inflation
Bass Reeves wrote: » With a semi lockdown still in place people will still continue to build up savings. Any vaccine will be another 9-12 months before general population are vaccinated and total lockdown ends. ...........
smurgen wrote: » When you say savings will increase in the next 6-12 months where are you getting this from? Mortgage breaks will end soon and government support will taper off. Job losses and pay cuts are all coming within that timeframe.
PropQueries wrote: » Asec Security AS6011 Underfloor Deposit Safe. Best investment someone could make over the next 5 to 10 years in my opinion. Link to unit here: https://www.safes.ie/product/asec-security-as6011-underfloor-deposit-safe/
Springy Turf wrote: » For those who are 100% certain the market will fall significantly within the next year - do you plan on making investments to capitalise on this?
edjkdkjdhjkd wrote: » Sigh, obviously sales are up giving both countries were LOCKED DOWN for months. Some people will do anything to try convince others that the property market won't fall, it's pathetic.
cnocbui wrote: » Well the US actual housing market might also be a bellweather:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-housing-market-posts-more-strong-gainspending-sales-up-20-prices-up-11-301122201.html And it's not bad in the UK, either:https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/property/1323721/house-prices-uk-sales-july-latest-data-rightmove But I'm sure Ireland's 'special'.
Bass Reeves wrote: » In the last 6 months savings in Ireland have grown by 10billion. Just to put it in context that is 33k houses at 300k a pop. Now I am not saying everybody with savings will go out and buy a house. However this is a vast amount to add to savings. It will mean there is more deposit money out there. As well people will be upgrading there own houses, extensions, sunrooms, revamping kitchens, bedrooms , bathrooms and living rooms. A good few paddies when they have a few point will spend a bit of it on there homes. It likely over the next 6-12 months that another 10billion will be added to that savings. If even 10% of it goes on home improvements labour costs in building will stay stable or increase, if 10% of it is used on deposits it will see a demand for 40k houses in the short to medium terms. Economics is fairly simple but that 10-20 billions in savings will effect the property market in different ways
TheSheriff wrote: » Your wrong here, I've several friends who have saved 15k plus ( couples) during lockdown, all were renting before, all are now looking to buy, all have been approved since lockdown. Granted this is a small sample size, but your general arguments to suit your narrative are not true. Property will fall no doubt. But people have more money and a stronger desire to own. What impact this will have remains to be seen.
edjkdkjdhjkd wrote: » People are interpreting these statistics completely wrong. The truth behind these figures is most likely that already wealthy individuals have been selling certain asset class vehicles i.e cashing out and placing the funds into savings deposits, for what i do not know but if was to hazard a guess it is to pick up property cheap when it crashes soon or maybe it is people getting out of risky vehicles and are keeping cash ready until the economic picture becomes clearer These figures DO NOT represent the average Joe, the lockdown has made it easier to save for sure, but you will find the most the average couple may have saved was around 10-12k MAX. Most couples still need to pay rent/mortgages and all the other bills that come with it, cutting down on nights out, restaurants, hobbies etc will only save so much. Put it this way, the savings the average couple would have accumulated during the past 6 months would be nowhere near enough dry powder make an impact on the property game and would not be the type of money that would influence a persons decision to go from not buying a property to suddenly being able to jump into the market. These figures do not represent the average joe FTB can we please stop these posts claiming that suddenly all these people across Ireland will have money ready to go and are just waiting to unleash on the property market.
Graham wrote: » 'The Cloud' is just somebody else's hardware. A chunk of which is manufactured by Cisco.
MacronvFrugals wrote: » Cisco sell hardware when everything is moving to the cloud which Covid accelerated.
