Sierra Oscar wrote: » I've thought to myself that interest rates would rise for many, many years now and my thinking has been shaped by much of what you outline above. I've been wrong for nearly a decade now though and it makes me think that you can't really forecast what is going to happen based on what occurred in the past. We truly are in unchartered territory when it comes to monetary policy.
KOR101 wrote: » Yes, in Japan the bet that interest rates will rise is known as The Widow Makers trade. Don't hold your breadth.
PropQueries wrote: » I think that's because Japan and United States only have to take into consideration their own country. The EU has 27 members and only 5 or 6 have a real debt problem. The ECB will have to increasingly take into consideration the other 20 plus EU members who don't have a debt problem over the next 5 to 10 years when deciding on interest rates etc.
PropQueries wrote: » What it does show is that our debt problem is very real. Some commentators in Ireland seem to believe that the ECB will allow inflation to take hold and never increase interest rates to inflate Irish debt away. I don't believe that premise for two reasons: 1. The majority of EU members don't have a debt problem and would have nothing to gain from such actions (even post-covid). 2. America is already on the verge of calling the ECB a currency manipulator. But it's not just America that will have a problem with such actions. Poland, Sweden etc. have their own currency and will they really allow the Euro to weaken to such an extent that it allows eurozone member industries to undercut their own industries and jobs? The EU center of influence is already moving East e.g. Berlin is basically in Eastern Europe. Here's the debt to GDP in Q1 2020 for countries not in the euro but impacted if the ECB adopts such a policy: Poland: 47% Denmark: 33% Sweden: 36% Romania: 37% Hungary: 66% Czech Republic: 32% Bulgaria: 20% Croatia: 74% Norway: 41% Switzerland: 32% Iceland: 28% Here's the debt to GDP in Q1 2020 for countries in the euro: Finland: 64% Netherlands: 49% Germany: 61% Lituania: 33% Latvia: 37% Estonia: 9% Malta: 44% Slovenia: 69% Austria: 72% France: 101% Belgium: 104% Italy: 137% Portugal: 120% Spain: 98% Greece: 176% As you can see, the majority of countries in Europe don't have a debt problem. Ireland is in a very small group of countries with a real debt problem and the likelihood of continued free money and low interest rates because of the misinformation that all european countries "are all in the same boat" is very unlikely (I think). I believe interest rates will rise more quickly and sooner than many believe. Once interest rates start rising, property values fall very quickly. Maybe I'm wrong. Just to show the impact of interest rates on the value of a property, I put some numbers into a mortgage repayment calculator. As you can see, a couple that may be approved for a maximum €300,000 mortgage today would only be approved for a mortgage of €200,000 in 5 years times if mortgage interest rates did increase by 3% in the next 5 years. Monthly repayments on a typical 30-year mortgage of €300,000 at 3% = €1,264.81 Monthly repayments on a typical 30-year mortgage of €200,000 at 6% = €1,199.10
JJJackal wrote: » You have included Norway Switzerland and Iceland here - no one cares what they think Iceland were almost bankrupt a few years ago if you recall... 10 or 11 countries had a worse debt to GDP ratio in Q1. Based on your figures above alot of big countries have significant debt problems eg France, Spain, Italy etc Note its easier to carry a debt of 500,000 if your house is worth 1 million than to carry a debt of 500,000 if your house is worth 400,000 Monthly repayments on a typical 30-year mortgage of €300,000 at 3% = €1,264.81 Monthly repayments on a typical 30-year mortgage of €200,000 at 6% = €1,199.10 Also Monthly repayments on a typical 30-year mortgage of €300,000 at if your rate is fixed at 3% when the ECB rate rises to 6% = €1,264.81 Our current short term debt is being carried at negative rates and our long term debt is at ECB tracker mortgage rates!
cubatahavana wrote: » Exactly. I’m not an expert in economics but Ireland’s debt in Q1 was 60.7% only.
PropQueries wrote: » Good points in relation to Norway, Switzerland and Iceland. Except, that Poland, Sweden and Denmark (not in the euro) would also be impacted. They would join together with other countries impacted and could cause serious problems if they believe the ECB is manipulating their currency for the benefit of eurozone industries and jobs. In relation to "Also Monthly repayments on a typical 30-year mortgage of €300,000 at if your rate is fixed at 3% when the ECB rate rises to 6% = €1,264.81" That's true. The person buying today would not be impacted in such a scenario. My argument was that in 5 years time, if a similar couple with the same repayment capacity wanted to purchase that same house from the couple who purchased it today, they would only be approved for a €200,000 mortgage instead of a €300,000 mortgage. House prices are dependent upon what a bank will lend the couple, so the value of that house falls from €300,000 to €200,000 in such a scenario.
JJJackal wrote: » In relation to "Also Monthly repayments on a typical 30-year mortgage of €300,000 at if your rate is fixed at 3% when the ECB rate rises to 6% = €1,264.81" - I assumed your point here is that Irelands borrowing costs could rise - but these are often locked in for many years at low rates Poland, Sweden and Denmark could join together - Eurozone countries have some degree of freedom in managing the Euro - some countries choose to stay out of the Euro and consequently wont have the same say in what happens with the Euro. We dont control zloties for example or have a say on zloties.
PropQueries wrote: » If the ECB introduces policies that devalue the euro, that directly impacts the zloty etc. The eurozone is probably big enough to take care of themselves but the markets would most likely destroy the polish, danish and swedish currencies and economies if they tried to match ECB policy and allow inflation to rise above a certain level without increasing interest rates. Poland, Sweden and Denmark have more friends in the EU than Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland. This is due to the majority of EU members now being northern and eastern european countries with relatively good economies and relatively little debt.
JJJackal wrote: » So your saying euro policies will be dictated by countries that done have the euro?
PropQueries wrote: » Not dictated but they have a significant input.
JJJackal wrote: » So essentially what your saying is Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Sweden (and Denmark who have negotiated never to join the Euro) will significantly impact what 341 million other Europeans who use the Euro decide?
PropQueries wrote: » If Poland's economy is severely impacted by ECB policies, they will contact Germany. Germany will have a big say in ECB policy, as least informally. Germany is increasingly looking east, not west.
JJJackal wrote: » These countries you speak of are not represented at Eurozone meetings... Germany will work in the euros interests not solely Polands
PropQueries wrote: » True, but have a good look at the below. If you were Germany, which of these countries would you rather have a good trading relationship with going forward? Poland: 47% Denmark: 33% Sweden: 36% Romania: 37% Hungary: 66% Czech Republic: 32% Bulgaria: 20% Croatia: 74% Norway: 41% Switzerland: 32% Iceland: 28% Here's the debt to GDP in Q1 2020 for countries in the euro: Finland: 64% Netherlands: 49% Germany: 61% Lituania: 33% Latvia: 37% Estonia: 9% Malta: 44% Slovenia: 69% Austria: 72% France: 101% Belgium: 104% Italy: 137% Portugal: 120% Spain: 98% Greece: 176%
JJJackal wrote: » France, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Austria, Belgium, Poland - in that order
PropQueries wrote: » Maybe. Me personally, I would prioritise the countries with the best future growth prospects, little debt and a demographic that is not going into reverse in the next 10 to 15 years.
schmittel wrote: » If you're bullish on Polish and Eastern European growth prospects what does that mean for Irish net migration and house prices. i.e a lot of Eastern Europeans in Ireland came here because their home economies were weak. They may return if we see a Slavic Tiger. Our population forecasts and thus housing demand models are based on substantial positive net migration as far as I know.
PropQueries wrote: » That's true. Even the building lobby admits we are currently building enough homes to meet natural population growth (I think they stated recently 18,500 to meet this demand) and we were building over 20,000 per-covid. As you said, the rest of the housing demand projections were primarily dependent on immigration. So, I guess it depends on what side of the debate you are on regarding future eastern european growth. I'm currently on their side given their low debt, no pension timebomb coming and low cost base. I think they can grow very very rapidly with the right policies. They're still relatively young countries and getting used to the western way of doing things so my bet would be on them over the next 10 to 15 years. Yes, eastern european countries do have an old population too, but they haven't promised them any meaningful pensions, so it shouldn't impact their finances. They're young people are on the western side at the moment and if they decide to return, the growth rates may make the 1990's growth rates in Ireland look low.
JJJackal wrote: » Any evidence to support any of this? I presume by eastern europe you mean latvia, estonia, lithuania, poland?
PropQueries wrote: » I believe interest rates will rise more quickly and sooner than many believe. Once interest rates start rising, property values fall very quickly.Maybe I'm wrong. Just to show the impact of interest rates on the value of a property, I put some numbers into a mortgage repayment calculator. As you can see, a couple that may be approved for a maximum €300,000 mortgage today would only be approved for a mortgage of €200,000 in 5 years times if mortgage interest rates did increase by 3% in the next 5 years. Monthly repayments on a typical 30-year mortgage of €300,000 at 3% = €1,264.81 Monthly repayments on a typical 30-year mortgage of €200,000 at 6% = €1,199.10
PropQueries wrote: » By eastern european countries, I mean all countries from Estonia to Poland and down to Bulgaria. Regarding the 18,500 figure, it was in a report last week from the property industry body Irish Institutional Property (IIP), whose members include most of the biggest property firms and landlords in the State from Cairn Homes to Ires Reit. According to the Irish Times: "The IIP analysis conducted by property economist Ronan Lyons bases its 47,000 figure on four key drivers of housing need: the natural increase in population (projected to be 18,500 a year); the continuing reduction in average household size (which creates the need for 12,500 units a year); net inward migration (put at 8,000 a year ); and a housing obsolescence rate (resulting in the loss of some 8,000 units a year). The Irish Times article titled "Claim that 47,000 new homes needed a year isn’t credible" is here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/claim-that-47-000-new-homes-needed-a-year-isn-t-credible-1.4333525
JJJackal wrote: » So no evidence?
PropQueries wrote: » Well, if even the building lobby stated we only need 18,500 to meet "natural population growth" and the debate was on what would happen if immigration reversed due to eastern european immigrants returning home... The Irish Times article basically debunked the 47,000 figure and another poster after provided a link to another report from another building lobby in the same week stating we only need c. 35,000 units. Maybe I read the article wrong... but I don't believe the 18,500 demand figure for "natural population growth" is quoted incorrectly (I read it again) and may be probably on the high side given who commissioned the report.
PropQueries wrote: » So, I guess it depends on what side of the debate you are on regarding future eastern european growth. I'm currently on their side given their low debt, no pension timebomb coming and low cost base. I think they can grow very very rapidly with the right policies. They're still relatively young countries and getting used to the western way of doing things so my bet would be on them over the next 10 to 15 years. Yes, eastern european countries do have an old population too, but they haven't promised them any meaningful pensions, so it shouldn't impact their finances. They're young people are on the western side at the moment and if they decide to return, the growth rates may make the 1990's growth rates in Ireland look low.
