nav[aria-label="Primary Navigation"] { padding: 0; & ul { list-style: none; width: 100%; display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: start; align-items: start; gap: 30px; padding: 0; & li { margin: 0; } & ul li { list-style: none; } } }

Child Item

Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

Find more posts tagged with

Quick Links

Comments

SleetAndSnow

Driving around the different peninsulas of west cork, they are all taking some hammering today. The sea is wild and angry. Huge waves.

igCorcaigh

Bit of a gale picking up again.
I wonder if there will be any flooding this evening.

Graces7

Wild and very loud and windy out here and very bright too. The elderberry outside the window is bending almost to the ground.

aidanodr

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Bit of a gale picking up again.
I wonder if there will be any flooding this evening.

https://twitter.com/corkcitycouncil/status/1296406295269040128

CiarraiAbu2

Looking at Met Eireann, Donegal seems to be lit up like a Christmas tree at the moment.

froog

Sky darkening in east cork now. Should have power back within the hour according to esb. Feel sorry for the people who have to wait until tommorow.

Graces7

We never get power cuts out here. Well very rarely. One in the four years I have been here.

Longing for the noise to stop and the sun to go to bed as dratted gale etc resulted in a migraine. Lack of sleep does that!

realdanbreen

Deleted User wrote: »

I'd say there's a fairly good chance of rain tonight.

Really? Although of course you do know that's not the question I asked.:rolleyes:

M.T. Cranium

nacho libre wrote: »

You are unlucky.
It was orange level in parts of East Galway, East Mayo and Roscommon. It was the strongest wind i've experienced in a long time. Although i was not here for Ophelia, so maybe that one was just as good/worst depending on your point view. As has been said M.T Cranium was on the money again. Can a Canadian become president? Or is that taking things too far:)

Too far by a considerable amount. I would just say that model consensus worked out perhaps better than any one model taken alone, which is always the safe route to take. Sometimes the outcome is not explicitly shown on any model but their average (weighted by reliability) can be quite good, much like with our forecast contest where "Con Sensus" is one of the top performers on a regular basis.

Big thanks should go to Meteorite58 (again) who took my rather lame opening post and guided the thread to something that the boards community could find useful.

M.T. Cranium

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

But that aside, yes, I would agree that M.T should nominate himself for leadership in this country. Practical; methodical; sees bull**** for what it is and cuts straight through it; has a sense of humour etc. Basically, traits that our shower of brain dead, soulless, money hungry gombeens lack.

Yes but politics has a way of exposing all of one's faults so for that reason alone I would prefer any other occupation, or even better, no occupation beyond the research I am doing, as an otherwise retired person.

Anyway, the people suggesting me for high office would bring the same attributes plus actual eligibility as residents and (I presume) citizens, so right back at ya, guys.

To quote Kanye West, "our country faces a brutal choice between two old, erratic, out of touch men. I bring the prospect of something much better -- a middle-aged, erratic, out of touch man who won't die during the term, so you won't have to consider the suitability of my running mate, who by the way is also my divorce attorney so I can multi-task the dude."

teednab-el

jackrussel wrote: »

You’re almost as bad as that oldsnowy fool. Wouldn’t be surprised if you’re the same person.

Thanks for your insightful and intelligent response. You are onto something well done.

Oscar Bravo

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Dublin, Louth, Wexford, Wicklow, Meath, Cork, Kerry and Waterford

Very strong winds (south to southeast veering southwest tonight) with severe and damaging gusts will result in further disruption. Some coastal flooding will occur also.

Valid: 17:00 Thursday 20/08/2020 to 05:00 Friday 21/08/2020

Issued: 17:09 Thursday 20/08/2020

redsteveireland

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

He got 'retweeted' by politicians yesterday, which is how I came across him. Basically, he informed us that AGW was causing all our weather and that we need to change our ways. That isn't science - it's preaching in the most fundamentalist sense of the word in order to garner influence with those who hold power. To wit: empty posturing.

I had some interesting conversations with some of his supporters today. Typical read the headline only people.

Storm 10

Highest gust of wind my station in Galway City recorded was 105km per hour at around 3am

SleetAndSnow

High tide in clon is in 2 hours or so, my local beaches (long strand, owenahincha and the Warren), and specifically owenahincha, are nearly covering the beach already. Really really.high tides it seems

Oscar Bravo

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Carlow and Kilkenny

Very strong southerly winds with some damaging gusts will result in disruption in places.

Valid: 22:00 Thursday 20/08/2020 to 23:59 Thursday 20/08/2020

Issued: 17:00 Thursday 20/08/2020

sryanbruen

Here is the storm comparison table for maximum wind gusts updated to include Storm Ellen and on this occasion, I have added a special addition of comparing previous August depressions though only a select few rather than too many.

Johnstown Castle is replaced with Rosslare data in the August table after Ellen. The table is getting a bit big to say the least!

For those that are new, each cell is colour coded based on the necessary warning level using the official system by Met Eireann.

Yellow = 90-110 kph
Orange = 111-130 kph
Red = 131+ kph

All data shown is sourced from Met Eireann.

To summarise the records:

The gust of 143 kph at Roches Point is a new national August record. The Claremorris 78 kt (144 kph) gust on 11 August 1999 is an error and it's puzzling why Met Eireann continue to regard it as otherwise.

Same station, Roches Point, had a max 10-minute mean speed of 111 kph which is a new national August record smashing 83 kph at Malin Head on 9 August 1973.

Minimum pressure was 966.4 hPa at Athenry which is a new national August record beating the previous record of 967.8 hPa at Belmullet on 14 August 1959.

And for the much less interesting part... here's a random wave pic I took today at high tide at Greystones and a video of my experiences of the event.

igCorcaigh

River Lee already looking quite high. High tide due at 19:33.

dsmythy

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Carlow and Kilkenny

Very strong southerly winds with some damaging gusts will result in disruption in places.

Valid: 22:00 Thursday 20/08/2020 to 23:59 Thursday 20/08/2020

Issued: 17:00 Thursday 20/08/2020

2 hour event. Now that's specific. Presuming it happens ME are doing very well here.

Seamai

igCorcaigh wrote: »

River Lee already looking quite high. High tide due at 19:33.

That doesn't look good with over an hour and twenty minutes to go to high tide.

An Ri rua

Well done Sryanbruen. Nice work.

Got to say s storm must be a really bad one when it's officially named a ballbag.

Up here in Laois, last night wasn't as bad as Ali. Sustained winds not worrying. A fee gusts certainly were.

Wild Field 1831

sryanbruen wrote: »

Here is the storm comparison table for maximum wind gusts updated to include Storm Ellen and on this occasion, I have added a special addition of comparing previous August depressions though only a select few rather than too many.

Johnstown Castle is replaced with Rosslare data in the August table after Ellen. The table is getting a bit big to say the least!

For those that are new, each cell is colour coded based on the necessary warning level using the official system by Met Eireann.

Yellow = 90-110 kph
Orange = 111-130 kph
Red = 131+ kph

All data shown is sourced from Met Eireann.

To summarise the records:

The gust of 143 kph at Roches Point is a new national August record. The Claremorris 78 kt (144 kph) gust on 11 August 1999 is an error and it's puzzling why Met Eireann continue to regard it as otherwise.

Same station, Roches Point, had a max 10-minute mean speed of 111 kph which is a new national August record smashing 83 kph at Malin Head on 9 August 1973.

Minimum pressure was 966.4 hPa (unsure on station) which is a new national August record beating the previous record of 967.8 hPa at Belmullet on 14 August 1959.

And for the much less interesting part... here's a random wave pic I took today at high tide at Greystones and a video at Clontarf promenade from last night.

I'd love if you posted that and challenged Mr. IWC with that chart. Particularly red, orange, yellow gust comparison with Ophelia. Somebody as knowledgeable as yourself could do it in a calm, measured way.

fits

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Carlow and Kilkenny

Very strong southerly winds with some damaging gusts will result in disruption in places.

Valid: 22:00 Thursday 20/08/2020 to 23:59 Thursday 20/08/2020

Issued: 17:00 Thursday 20/08/2020

I hope it’s not as bad as last night. We were very lucky not to have severe damage with that tree falling beside our house.

Darwin

Brilliant work as usual Syran. I always take a screengrab of your table and save it, interesting to see previous storm stats when a new one approaches.

Lewis_Benson

Had a tree down in our garden, had to get Co council out to move it.
I'll split it and season it for next winter.

Still no power sincé 2am.

SleetAndSnow

Drove around to multiple beaches in the West cork coast, 17 mins left till high tide at that point and they are all breaking their boundaries, going into the sandunes etc. Huge waves, mad. Class to see though.

[Deleted User]

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Drove around to multiple beaches in the West cork coast, 17 mins left till high tide at that point and they are all breaking their boundaries, going into the sandunes etc. Huge waves, mad. Class to see though.

I'd love to be down there now, river is extremely high tonight in the city,flooding likely I'd say.

munsterlegend

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I'd love to be down there now, river is extremely high tonight in the city,flooding likely I'd say.

Flooding not too bad just a bit of surface water. A change in wind direction saved it from being much worse.

froog

east coast look to be in for a battering tonight. hope it doesn't fly under the radar for people there.

froog

power back east cork - thank you esb