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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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StackSteevens

Deleted User wrote: »

Don't stop at the roads. All trees anywhere near houses, footpaths and in public parks need to go. The safety of the human is paramount here.
Also, dangerous lakes need to be drained and backfilled with gravel.

And mountains and hills levelled to prevent any risk of landslides /avalanches. Thousands die in landslides and avalanches every winter, but the gubbernment just doesn't care.

thecomedian

Neddyusa wrote: »

Certainly worst storm impact wise here in over 23 years. Shows why ME need to go to an "impact" model.
Also the closest of those weather stations to us is over 40 miles away (Mt Dillon) - but thats story for another day.
ESB estimates we'll get power back on Saturday :eek:

Well no one was killed by this storm, so it’s not as bad as some others in terms of impact

Gaoth Laidir

John.Icy wrote: »

I'm not too fussed over the IWC or similar people trying to put their 2 cents in - sensationalist forecasts are part and parcel of the hobby, though maybe in this case the large following is a little more dangerous. Agree with Oneric too, the media does this every day, and they actually phrase their articles as if its directly coming from Met Eireann - it's always ''Met Eireann predict massive heatwave'' despite the official forecast being 18-22 degree weather or that. At least IWC pushes himself as something separate and kind of, I am better than MetE.

Laughable though how his feed was full of praise this morning. General public hasn't a scooby doo. Whatever about Cork, and at a push Limerick/Clare, we had gusts elsewhere of 90-110 km/h. Just an absolute world away from 150-160 km/h gusts over a widespread area and supposed imminent red warning upgrades. IWC was bang on the money though apparently. These people in his comments praising him right now are the same folk who bash MetE for predicting winds of 120 km/h and the max gust only ends up being 119km/h. I could write a thesis how baffled I am how some people in inland Leinster for e.g. on his page have woke up this morning convinced they have just lived through a red warning historic storm with 150 km/h gusts. Christ.

Just some of his claims from his LinkedIn page...

By the way, he studied politics at UCD and has just started a "climate change" PhD, but not sure if it's on the science or politics of it. He doesn't mention what award he won, which is strange.

realdanbreen

realdanbreen wrote: »

What's the rainfall prediction for this evening/tonight?

Neddyusa

thecomedian wrote: »

Well no one was killed by this storm, so it’s not as bad as some others in terms of impact

Great news if that's the case - I'd say the time of night was the biggest factor in that

Oneiric 3

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Just some of his claims from his LinkedIn page...

By the way, he studied politics at UCD and has just started a "climate change" PhD, but not sure if it's on the science or politics of it. He doesn't mention what award he won, which is strange.

Climate science isn't politics, but it is purely political.

Bejubby

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Just some of his claims from his LinkedIn page...

By the way, he studied politics at UCD and has just started a "climate change" PhD, but not sure if it's on the science or politics of it. He doesn't mention what award he won, which is strange.

He will be part of the government soon pushing climate change policies!!!ðŸ€£

mikep

Cathal is some man..

I love the "fast becoming the nations most trusted meterological agency" bit..

Delusions of grandeur...

You know he is a clickbait merchant when he shows up on Matt Coopers show,,

Oneiric 3

Bejubby wrote: »

He will be part of the government soon pushing climate change policies!!!&#55356;&#56355;

He got 'retweeted' by politicians yesterday, which is how I came across him. Basically, he informed us that AGW was causing all our weather and that we need to change our ways. That isn't science - it's preaching in the most fundamentalist sense of the word in order to garner influence with those who hold power. To wit: empty posturing.

Hammer Archer

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

'Ellen' brought nothing more than the bog standard, not out of the ordinary wet and windy stuff here in 'orange' Galway. These colour warnings have become the equivalent of the boy who cried wolf for these parts.

Mace Head got Orange and borerline red wind speeds. I understand that that's very exposed compared to other parts of the county. However, if you look at the amount of trees down in this link, it certainly wasn't an ordinary wet and windy night.

Neddyusa wrote: »

Certainly worst storm impact wise here in over 23 years. Shows why ME need to go to an "impact" model.
Also the closest of those weather stations to us is over 40 miles away (Mt Dillon) - but thats story for another day.
ESB estimates we'll get power back on Saturday :eek:

All it takes is one tree down in the wrong place to cause a major power outage. And that could be the difference between one person thinking "this is the worst storm ever" and another a few miles down the road thinking "that was a nothing storm". It does, however, lend credence to the thinking that we should do away with county-wide warnings, though that in itself could cause it's own problems.
And Met Éireann do take the impacts of the weather into account, as is described on their website.

Personally I think Met Eireann got it right, more or less. It's still an inexact science and this storm in particular seemed to be very difficult to nail down even yesterday. I think the proof of that is that the amount of people that were bigging it up last night that they'd get it completely wrong are nowhere to be seen today.

TTLF

So whats the situation tonight, bad scattered thunderstorms up the midlands/east coast or just very heavy rain up the midlands/east coast?
(accompanied by the wind too ofc)

nthclare

A few strong gusts in North Clare, just near Ballyvaughan now and it whipped up fairly strong...

teednab-el

Neddyusa wrote: »

Certainly worst storm impact wise here in over 23 years. Shows why ME need to go to an "impact" model.
Also the closest of those weather stations to us is over 40 miles away (Mt Dillon) - but thats story for another day.
ESB estimates we'll get power back on Saturday :eek:

Ah here i doubt that. It might have been bad but nowhere near those levels.

Oneiric 3

Hammer Archer wrote: »

Mace Head got Orange and borerline red wind speeds. I understand that that's very exposed compared to other parts of the county. However, if you look at the amount of trees down in this link, it certainly wasn't an ordinary wet and windy night.

I don't live anywhere near Mace Hd, but I do live in a very flat, exposed location and last night's event was nothing out of the ordinary in these parts. Only a few days ago we were given a 'yellow rainfall' warning for the county and ended up with nothing more than few mils, and this is far from the first time this has happened.

[Deleted User]

realdanbreen wrote: »

??

I'd say there's a fairly good chance of rain tonight.

Hawthorn Tree

thecomedian wrote: »

Well no one was killed by this storm, so it’s not as bad as some others in terms of impact

I don't think anyone should ever use the death toll to grade storms. It's grotesque and ghoulish. And just plain stupid.

jackrussel

teednab-el wrote: »

Ah here i doubt that. It might have been bad but nowhere near those levels.

You’re almost as bad as that oldsnowy fool. Wouldn’t be surprised if you’re the same person.

nacho libre

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

'Ellen' brought nothing more than the bog standard, not out of the ordinary wet and windy stuff here in 'orange' Galway. These colour warnings have become the equivalent of the boy who cried wolf for these parts.

You are unlucky.
It was orange level in parts of East Galway, East Mayo and Roscommon. It was the strongest wind i've experienced in a long time. Although i was not here for Ophelia, so maybe that one was just as good/worst depending on your point view. As has been said M.T Cranium was on the money again. Can a Canadian become president? Or is that taking things too far:)

vid36

200,000 homes without power at one point is a pretty significant impact in my view regardless of wind speeds.

thecomedian

Hawthorn Tree wrote: »

I don't think anyone should ever use the death toll to grade storms. It's grotesque and ghoulish. And just plain stupid.

Ah give over.
Unfortunately the more destructive storms generally cause deaths.
It’s not plain stupid but thanks for throwing that remark in.

Oneiric 3

nacho libre wrote: »

You are unlucky.
It was orange level in parts of East Galway, East Mayo and Roscommon. It was the strongest wind i've experienced in a long time. Although i was not here for Ophelia, so maybe that one was just as good/worst depending on your point view. As has been said M.T Cranium was on the money again. Can a Canadian become president? Or is that taking things too far:)

Ophelia was a bigger event here, both in terms of wind speed and general damage, and we missed the worst of it!

Oneiric 3

But that aside, yes, I would agree that M.T should nominate himself for leadership in this country. Practical; methodical; sees bull**** for what it is and cuts straight through it; has a sense of humour etc. Basically, traits that our shower of brain dead, soulless, money hungry gombeens lack.

Bejubby

Easy nowðŸ˜

nacho libre

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Ophelia was a bigger event here, both in terms of wind speed and general damage, and we missed the worst of it!

I'm sorry i missed it. It will be interesting to see Sryan's table to see where this one ranks with other August Storms. I can't recall having too many of them myself.

Neddyusa

Hammer Archer wrote: »

Mace Head got Orange and borerline red wind speeds. I understand that that's very exposed compared to other parts of the county. However, if you look at the amount of trees down in this link, it certainly wasn't an ordinary wet and windy night.

All it takes is one tree down in the wrong place to cause a major power outage. And that could be the difference between one person thinking "this is the worst storm ever" and another a few miles down the road thinking "that was a nothing storm". It does, however, lend credence to the thinking that we should do away with county-wide warnings, though that in itself could cause it's own problems.
And Met Éireann do take the impacts of the weather into account, as is described on their website.

Personally I think Met Eireann got it right, more or less. It's still an inexact science and this storm in particular seemed to be very difficult to nail down even yesterday. I think the proof of that is that the amount of people that were bigging it up last night that they'd get it completely wrong are nowhere to be seen today.

Agree to some extent (county warning for Galway in respect of forecast for Mace head) - but within a few km of here alone there were hundreds of trees down. In a "yellow" area.

If MT (and most model guidance) was able to see at 5pm yesterday that the track of strongest winds was to the east of co Galway - ME should have adjusted their warnings rather than indicate that the worst was towards the west coast.

Neddyusa

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Ophelia was a bigger event here, both in terms of wind speed and general damage, and we missed the worst of it!

Opposite here - just 30 miles east of you - and Ophelia was bad here

Rebelbrowser

I thought Darwin and Ophelia were bigger here in Cork. That said there are 3 ca. 25 year old trees down in my estate. No trees fell in my estate during the other two storms. Foliage the issue I presume.

igCorcaigh

I didn't experience much sustained winds, but extremely strong gusts that jolted the house, alongside periods of calm but with a lot of noise and whistling sounds.

Might be because I'm in the city centre with buildings close to each other.

[Deleted User]

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Just some of his claims from his LinkedIn page...

By the way, he studied politics at UCD and has just started a "climate change" PhD, but not sure if it's on the science or politics of it.

It's on 'Assessing the multi factorial drivers in the irish fodder crisis'

I'm sure there are lots of reasons why people believe him - confirmation bias?

Hawthorn Tree

Ophelia was a fairly non event in Galway city but on the other hand Storm Ali was a massive 2 hour experience in Galway.
I saw several trees actually falling over on the way to work. It was epic. I always thought a tree falling would be a slow "timmmmbbberrrrrrrr" type action but I was surprised how quick a tree comes down. No warning, no chance of escape.

Sryanbruen's chart will tell a lot.