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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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Gaoth Laidir

John.Icy wrote: »

I'm not too fussed over the IWC or similar people trying to put their 2 cents in - sensationalist forecasts are part and parcel of the hobby, though maybe in this case the large following is a little more dangerous. Agree with Oneric too, the media does this every day, and they actually phrase their articles as if its directly coming from Met Eireann - it's always ''Met Eireann predict massive heatwave'' despite the official forecast being 18-22 degree weather or that. At least IWC pushes himself as something separate and kind of, I am better than MetE.

Laughable though how his feed was full of praise this morning. General public hasn't a scooby doo. Whatever about Cork, and at a push Limerick/Clare, we had gusts elsewhere of 90-110 km/h. Just an absolute world away from 150-160 km/h gusts over a widespread area and supposed imminent red warning upgrades. IWC was bang on the money though apparently. These people in his comments praising him right now are the same folk who bash MetE for predicting winds of 120 km/h and the max gust only ends up being 119km/h. I could write a thesis how baffled I am how some people in inland Leinster for e.g. on his page have woke up this morning convinced they have just lived through a red warning historic storm with 150 km/h gusts. Christ.

Just some of his claims from his LinkedIn page...

By the way, he studied politics at UCD and has just started a "climate change" PhD, but not sure if it's on the science or politics of it. He doesn't mention what award he won, which is strange.

thecomedian

Neddyusa wrote: »

Certainly worst storm impact wise here in over 23 years. Shows why ME need to go to an "impact" model.
Also the closest of those weather stations to us is over 40 miles away (Mt Dillon) - but thats story for another day.
ESB estimates we'll get power back on Saturday :eek:

Well no one was killed by this storm, so it’s not as bad as some others in terms of impact

StackSteevens

Deleted User wrote: »

Don't stop at the roads. All trees anywhere near houses, footpaths and in public parks need to go. The safety of the human is paramount here.
Also, dangerous lakes need to be drained and backfilled with gravel.

And mountains and hills levelled to prevent any risk of landslides /avalanches. Thousands die in landslides and avalanches every winter, but the gubbernment just doesn't care.

aidanodr

Torrential downpours now over Carrigaline / Cork city.

Neddyusa

John.Icy wrote: »

Out of curiosity;
Mount Dillon (Roscommon) - 102 km/h max gust (yellow).
Mullingar (Westmeath) - 83 km/h max gust (n/a).
Ballyhaise (Cavan) - 94 km/h max gust (yellow).
Gurteen (Offaly) - 85 km/h max gust (n/a).

Can't remember what Pauldry in Sligo got. Galway and Mayo were orange warnings. Now maybe trees in full leaf spiced things up a little but I think MetE did alright, if anything I'm sure you'd have people in Galway and Mayo argue an Orange was excessive.

Certainly worst storm impact wise here in over 23 years. Shows why ME need to go to an "impact" model.
Also the closest of those weather stations to us is over 40 miles away (Mt Dillon) - but thats story for another day.
ESB estimates we'll get power back on Saturday :eek:

lucernarian

Would point out that there is a real lack of anemometers in the corridor around Dungarvan to Clonmel, where serious damage was done and the very highest wind speeds were expected. Pity we don't have a station between Roches Point and Wexford.

Neddyusa

c.p.w.g.w

A few employers true colours showing today...

It seems all the covid procedures some workplaces have implemented have got out the window when your workforce are without power at home...

John.Icy

DA reported winds from the south for much of the 'peak' - winds maxed out in the mid 60km/h range (must be very sheltered with this wind direction , Wicklow Mts?). Highest gust was 70 km/h when direction was SE. The lowest recorded gust of all Met E stations. Here in D9 it just never took off.

Neddyusa

And we had the opposite colour coding complaint here. Definitely orange to red impact level here - and we under a (now completely ignored) "yellow"!

Similar to Ophelia, the worst of the winds with this took a track to the East of Galway/Mayo.
Mt called the track much more accurately.

John.Icy

Neddyusa wrote: »

No idea about the other lad but ME certainly didn't get it "spot on".

They had Roscommon - and neighbouring severely affected counties in a "yellow" warning - totally wrong.

Out of curiosity;
Mount Dillon (Roscommon) - 102 km/h max gust (yellow).
Mullingar (Westmeath) - 83 km/h max gust (n/a).
Ballyhaise (Cavan) - 94 km/h max gust (yellow).
Gurteen (Offaly) - 85 km/h max gust (n/a).

Can't remember what Pauldry in Sligo got. Galway and Mayo were orange warnings. Now maybe trees in full leaf spiced things up a little but I think MetE did alright, if anything I'm sure you'd have people in Galway and Mayo argue an Orange was excessive.

The Undecided One

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Don't stop at the roads. All trees anywhere near houses, footpaths and in public parks need to go. The safety of the human is paramount here.
Also, dangerous lakes need to be drained and backfilled with gravel.

Just the lakes? What about the ocean? How many people die in the ocean each year?

Mix it with concrete all the way to New York!

[Deleted User]

TheRiverman wrote: »

Roadside trees,a huge issue ignored and neglected by Government, County Councils and landowners for decades.They should be all cut down,everytime there is a storm,you can write the same script about roads blocked.Thankfully I haven't heard about any fatalities.

Don't stop at the roads. All trees anywhere near houses, footpaths and in public parks need to go. The safety of the human is paramount here.
Also, dangerous lakes need to be drained and backfilled with gravel.

Oneiric 3

'Ellen' brought nothing more than the bog standard, not out of the ordinary wet and windy stuff here in 'orange' Galway. These colour warnings have become the equivalent of the boy who cried wolf for these parts.

Gonzo

John O.Groats wrote: »

Was much damage done in your area?

I'm unsure of that but i'll be heading to the shops soon and will take a look. It was certainly the loudest wind I have heard here since probably Storm Darwin. It's also the first wind storm to knock our power since Storm Darwin.

John.Icy

I'm not too fussed over the IWC or similar people trying to put their 2 cents in - sensationalist forecasts are part and parcel of the hobby, though maybe in this case the large following is a little more dangerous. Agree with Oneric too, the media does this every day, and they actually phrase their articles as if its directly coming from Met Eireann - it's always ''Met Eireann predict massive heatwave'' despite the official forecast being 18-22 degree weather or that. At least IWC pushes himself as something separate and kind of, I am better than MetE.

Laughable though how his feed was full of praise this morning. General public hasn't a scooby doo. Whatever about Cork, and at a push Limerick/Clare, we had gusts elsewhere of 90-110 km/h. Just an absolute world away from 150-160 km/h gusts over a widespread area and supposed imminent red warning upgrades. IWC was bang on the money though apparently. These people in his comments praising him right now are the same folk who bash MetE for predicting winds of 120 km/h and the max gust only ends up being 119km/h. I could write a thesis how baffled I am how some people in inland Leinster for e.g. on his page have woke up this morning convinced they have just lived through a red warning historic storm with 150 km/h gusts. Christ.

JanuarySnowstor

Still no power here estimated 7pm

John O.Groats

Gonzo wrote: »

back online now after an entire night without power or broadband. Winds didn't seem too bad here at first and then the power went around 11.30pm, about 15 minutes afterwards the winds became much worse. Power only restored this morning.

Was much damage done in your area?

Gonzo

back online now after an entire night without power or broadband. Winds didn't seem too bad here at first and then the power went around 11.30pm, about 15 minutes afterwards the winds became much worse. Power only restored this morning.

Neddyusa

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

I'm tempted to comment on his page about how wrong he got it but sure what's the point? People on there just don't want to hear it. They'll slate met eireann while congratulating him on how right he was. Never mind the fact he was miles off the mark and ME actually got it spot on.

No idea about the other lad but ME certainly didn't get it "spot on".

They had Roscommon - and neighbouring severely affected counties in a "yellow" warning - totally wrong.

Danzy

TheRiverman wrote: »

Roadside trees,a huge issue ignored and neglected by Government, County Councils and landowners for decades.They should be all cut down,everytime there is a storm,you can write the same script about roads blocked.Thankfully I haven't heard about any fatalities.

ðŸ˜

TheDenialTwist

eastie17 wrote: »

East Cork very bad, local radio wasn’t even doing it justice. Trees down everywhere, most R and L roads blocked into Midleton

Yes, what a night and morning. Very high winds, rain, thunder and lightning.

Trees felled in Cobh and on the Fota Road this morning. Some power outages in Cobh. Cross River Ferry was out of service this morning until around 09:50. Still very gusty and raining currently.

Neddyusa

Still no power in South Roscommon. Might be restored tomorrow?
Worst storm in my memory. Hundreds of trees down locally. Peak was 12.30 to 1.30am.
Noise was scary. The Christmas storms of 97/98? might have had stronger winds and lasted longer but this did more damage.
Lost a shed roof and had a heifers killed in Opelia but this was worse.
No phones. No internet. Only emergency calls possible on the mobile network til now.

Hat tip to Mt Cranium who specifically mentioned Ros/E Galway in the firing line.

teednab-el

JackieChang wrote: »

Winds picking up now.

They have been picking up for the last 15 hours.

JackieChang

Winds picking up now.

DOCARCH

jimmynokia wrote: »

According to IWC it was 178kmh kinsale gas platform..

Clown....

Always interesting to observe what's happening at Kinsale platform and Fastnet but they are not representative/wind instruments not in accordance with IMO standards.

Gaoth Laidir

The highest measured 10-minute mean speed was 111 kph (60 kt) at Roche's Point, absolutely in line with the latest Harmonie forecast yesterday afternoon.

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1296402226882240518

Here are the highest gusts. Of course, they don't include the Kinsale platform, which has its anemometer 55 metres above the surface.

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1296400489777639424

jimmynokia

pad199207 wrote: »

That’s offshore. Roughly 90-100m above the sea. But sure we knew he would use Fastnet or Kinsale Energy Gusts for his trophy before the storm even happened.

Hopefully people and the radio stations that had him on yesterday wake up now. The people lauding him saying he was on the ball is priceless

pad199207

jimmynokia wrote: »

According to IWC it was 178kmh kinsale gas platform..

That’s offshore. Roughly 90-100m above the sea. But sure we knew he would use Fastnet or Kinsale Energy Gusts for his trophy before the storm even happened.

The max gust of only 143kmh at Roche’s Point puts a 3 egg undercooked omelette on his face

jimmynokia

DOCARCH wrote: »

143kmh (...I think...) at Roches Point.

According to IWC it was 178kmh kinsale gas platform..