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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Graham

Continued from here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058041687

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[Deleted User]

smurgen wrote: »

Access to beaches, forests, hiking,trails all greater in the country.

This really isn't true!
There are beaches, forests, lots of hiking routes, plenty of parks etc in the Dublin area.
If I am in my home town, there is literally one walk that is possible to do, I still have to travel in my car to get to any hiking trails, beaches or even any possible walks in the local mountain/hill.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

Dublin has all of this?

Have you ever been to Dublin?

You're 100% correct. Dublin is a great city and it is probably the preference for most people.

However, I do think that it will come down to a couple deciding if they wish to have an extra €200k in borrowings and if this is really worth it to live near a city given that WFH is now a very real possibility.

Overall, I think the WFH and city vs rural living options, gives potential buyers very real options that they didn't think were available this time last year. This places city sellers and potential buyers on a more equal footing during potential negotiations on price.

Graham

I don't think it will take huge number for it to be significant.

awec

Graham wrote: »

I assume the point is, a number of people won't be willing to pay the Dublin premium in the face of other less expensive alternatives.

Yes, I don’t think anyone is disputing this.

I am disputing how many people will make this trade off. I do not think it will be as significant as people believe.

Graham

I assume the point is, a number of people won't be willing to pay the Dublin premium in the face of other less expensive alternatives.

awec

smurgen wrote: »

Access to beaches, forests, hiking,trails all greater in the country. People have more appreciation for the great outdoors now. Many smaller towns have amenities like cinemas and gyms etc. Plus larger towns like Midleton still have restaurants.

Dublin has all of this?

Have you ever been to Dublin?

smurgen

awec wrote: »

They aren’t?

Sure the pubs are closed, and you can’t go watch matches. Isn’t that what rural dwellers are complaining about? They’ve nothing to do, since the only things they are able to do are currently locked down?

I live in a small town, and I wouldn’t claim we are less affected than Dublin. There is still vastly more choice of things to do in Dublin. The concerts will be back, the matches, events etc will be back. It would be silly to think they’re gone forever.

City living isn’t what it used to be, but neither is living anywhere else.

Access to beaches, forests, hiking,trails all greater in the country. People have more appreciation for the great outdoors now. Many smaller towns have amenities like cinemas and gyms etc. Plus larger towns like Midleton still have restaurants.

Browney7

awec wrote: »

It isn’t?

Is rural Ireland unaffected by covid or something?

Presumably the poster is implying some people will see living in a 2 bed apartment in Dublin with no access to greenspace isn't as attractive as it once was (cultural events, sports, concerts, pubs etc).

On the other side, living 5 to 10 miles outside an urban centre in the country side may now have some upsides - a garden to sit in, more space in a property etc - and the sacrifices of doing this aren't what they once were (as the activity that was keeping them in Dublin isn't what it was) and work from home being extended makes this a more viable prospect. Covid is continuing to wreak havoc with peoples lives (creches for instance) so a lot can and will happen over the next 12 months.

At no stage could it be interpreted that people were saying there would be tailbacks down the M7 and M4 to waterville, skibbereen, clifden and belmullet and widespread abandonment of Dublin

awec

schmittel wrote: »

I don't think anybody is talking about a mass exodus out of Dublin, leavng tumbleweed in their wake.

The whole point about a shift to WFH is that it won't take very many would be Dublin buyers to decide to move further afield to have a meaningful impact on Dublin prices.

He literally said deserted Dublin..

smurgen

TheSheriff wrote: »

OK now you are just making things up.............

What I'm saying is that anyone with a high speed broadband can access a good well paying job. I've personally hired people working in West Cork. Before that person might have had to move to our Dublin office.

hometruths

awec wrote: »

Yes, it has.

But the idea of a mass exodus of workers from the city to the country is pure wishful thinking. I am sure some people will move, but I am sure that many more won’t.

People are talking here as if there’ll be queues out the M7, the great migration.

Sure when the government tried to decentralise the public sector it was of limited success as they couldn’t get people to relocate.

I don't think anybody is talking about a mass exodus out of Dublin, leavng tumbleweed in their wake.

The whole point about a shift to WFH is that it won't take very many would be Dublin buyers to decide to move further afield to have a meaningful impact on Dublin prices.

awec

smurgen wrote: »

Towns aren't as effected as say Dublin. All those concerts, matches events are gone. Towns and rural areas didn't have much public transport in the first place either.

They aren’t?

Sure the pubs are closed, and you can’t go watch matches. Isn’t that what rural dwellers are complaining about? They’ve nothing to do, since the only things they are able to do are currently locked down?

I live in a small town, and I wouldn’t claim we are less affected than Dublin. There is still vastly more choice of things to do in Dublin. The concerts will be back, the matches, events etc will be back. It would be silly to think they’re gone forever.

City living isn’t what it used to be, but neither is living anywhere else.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

i actually agree with you on this, and i think this is the factor that will have the bigger impact as i dont think wfh en masse will actually materialise in the long term.

no whether its 10-15 or 25-30 years away who knows, but it will be a game changer.

It may be sooner than many of us think.

You may be interested in this article from the Guardian this week, "Self-driving cars could be allowed on UK motorways next year".

If this happened in a reasonable timeframe in Ireland, it could potentially open up every town and village in Ireland that is within a 10 minute drive of our motorway network.

Guardian article link here: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/aug/18/self-driving-cars-allowed-motorways-industry-risk

smurgen

awec wrote: »

It isn’t?

Is rural Ireland unaffected by covid or something?

Towns aren't as effected as say Dublin. All those concerts, matches events are gone. Towns and rural areas didn't have much public transport in the first place either.

Springy Turf

Commuting/Work is just one of the reasons why people live in Dublin. There are many other conveniences associated with living in an area local amenities within walking distance.

What might happen (and maybe this is wishful thinking) is a revival of larger towns across the country. Particularly those that are well connected to road/rail/public transport infrastructure already. I live in a South Dublin suburb and to be honest I rarely get in my car to do anything. I love having shops, restaurants, parks nearby. Plenty of nice towns in Ireland that would meet the same criteria if the commuting to work is only occasional.

awec

smurgen wrote: »

City living isn't what it used to be.

It isn’t?

Is rural Ireland unaffected by covid or something?

TheSheriff

smurgen wrote: »

Rural Ireland isn't bustling,you drew that inference yourself. The point is that the main advantage of living in Dublin like the bustling lifestyle and the access to higher paying jobs has now changed dramatically. So is it still worth the premium on housing?

OK now you are just making things up.............

smurgen

awec wrote: »

Yes, it has.

But the idea of a mass exodus of workers from the city to the country is pure wishful thinking. I am sure some people will move, but I am sure that many more won’t.

Sure when the government tried to decentralise the public sector it was of limited success as they couldn’t get people to relocate.

City living isn't what it used to be.

awec

King Cantona wrote: »

.

Dublin will never be deserted, for sure. But do consider that there's been a huge difference in viability of living in rural ireland, or even outside Dublin for a lot of people since the previous times they visited. For the majority, WFH was not a viable option for many people previously and as much as rural ireland may have appealed, a 2-3 commute everyday wouldn't. In my own experience, both myself and my wife can WFH. I'm from Dublin, she isn't. So now rural ireland is a real, viable option (broadband dependent).

Yes, it has.

But the idea of a mass exodus of workers from the city to the country is pure wishful thinking. I am sure some people will move, but I am sure that many more won’t.

People are talking here as if there’ll be queues out the M7, the great migration.

Sure when the government tried to decentralise the public sector it was of limited success as they couldn’t get people to relocate.

smurgen

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I can work remotely no problem but give me the roughest part of Dublin over anywhere rural any day of the week.

So in this thread we're constantly told that people's situations are different and some need to buy now,can't wait. However this logic doesn't extend to prefences? Can people not accept that maybe those that were forced to live in cities now might finally try make the move?
I have to say I find the shutting down of any sort of debate here to be extremely frustrating.it seems as if it's the status quo or nothing.

King Cantona

awec wrote: »

Yea, they're going to leave "deserted Dublin" ( :pac: ) for bustling rural Ireland. We are lucky that Covid came along so that people in Dublin could leave the city for the first time ever, and learn what rural Ireland looks like, and realise that they can all trade their 3 bed semi for a half acre in the sticks.

There is some absolute rubbish posted on here sometimes.

.

Dublin will never be deserted, for sure. But do consider that there's been a huge difference in viability of living in rural ireland, or even outside Dublin for a lot of people since the previous times they visited. For the majority, WFH was not a viable option for many people previously and as much as rural ireland may have appealed, a 2-3 commute everyday wouldn't. In my own experience, both myself and my wife can WFH. I'm from Dublin, she isn't. So now rural ireland is a real, viable option (broadband dependent).

MacronvFrugals

I can work remotely no problem but give me the roughest part of Dublin over anywhere rural any day of the week.

awec

smurgen wrote: »

Rural Ireland isn't bustling,you drew that inference yourself. The point is that the main advantage of living in Dublin like the bustling lifestyle and the access to higher paying jobs has now changed dramatically. So is it still worth the premium on housing?

Has it?

I think you’re getting a little ahead of yourself.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

so what do they want a house in the country?

Better value. Wherever they might find it. It might well indeed be your house relative to what you paid for it.

smurgen

PropQueries wrote: »

I think the main impact will be the very real options, that weren't previously available, that will drive the market price over the next few years.

Before WFH, living in a city, while also preferable, was really the only option, unless you wanted to spend hours commuting every day.

Now, even if they can afford the mortgage or have mortgage approval for a home near the city, some buyers may decide the extra €200k in borrowings isn't worth it and may decide to look much further afield.

This may lower the number of potential bidders on each home that comes up for sale in the city or surrounding suburbs.

Careful now. Any alternative thinking will have you set upon here.

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

Skehan's point is that the 37 year old version of you is unlikely to want to buy it or something similiar.

Or if as you point out, even if they do want to buy it, they will be in the minority.

I think the main impact will be the very real options, that weren't previously available, that will drive the market price over the next few years.

Before WFH, living in a city, while also preferable, was really the only option, unless you wanted to spend hours commuting every day.

Now, even if they can afford the mortgage or have mortgage approval for a home near the city, some buyers may decide the extra €200k in borrowings isn't worth it and may decide to look much further afield.

This may lower the number of potential bidders on each home that comes up for sale in the city or surrounding suburbs.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

While this is the short-term benefit for potential WFH opportunities, I think the next big impact, admittedly about 10 -15 years away, is the self-driving car. This is what will truly open up every rural home to a potential buyer. And, apparently, there's tens of thousands of them right there, already built and ready to go.

i actually agree with you on this, and i think this is the factor that will have the bigger impact as i dont think wfh en masse will actually materialise in the long term.

no whether its 10-15 or 25-30 years away who knows, but it will be a game changer.

hometruths

PropQueries wrote: »

That's true. Also, a lot of those houses in the city that were previously rented out by the bedroom to young workers may now be converted back into family homes which may actually increase the number of family homes in the city. And the downward spiral continues...

That would be a much better way to meet the immediate demand than building more.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Skehan's point is that the 37 year old version of you is unlikely to want to buy it or something similiar.

Or if as you point out, even if they do want to buy it, they will be in the minority.

so what do they want a house in the country?

smurgen

awec wrote: »

Yea, they're going to leave "deserted Dublin" ( :pac: ) for bustling rural Ireland. We are lucky that Covid came along so that people in Dublin could leave the city for the first time ever, and learn what rural Ireland looks like, and realise that they can all trade their 3 bed semi for a half acre in the sticks.

There is some absolute rubbish posted on here sometimes.

Rural Ireland isn't bustling,you drew that inference yourself. The point is that the main advantage of living in Dublin like the bustling lifestyle and the access to higher paying jobs has now changed dramatically. So is it still worth the premium on housing?