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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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Beechwoodspark

I made an attempt to ring Kildare county council yesterday around half 4 just to I suppose assuage my fears that they were prepping for this.

All I got was an out of office coldly metallic robotic answering machine.

Gods Gift

I blame Fianna Fáil.
For the weather.

silverharp

In Dublin there was about 30 minutes of winds around 11pm that reminded me of winter storms and then it went quiet, didnt hear any of the predicted thunder. Met has thunder between 1pm and 2pm today

HeidiHeidi

silverharp wrote: »

In Dublin there was about 30 minutes of winds around 11pm that reminded me of winter storms and then it went quiet, didnt hear any of the predicted thunder. Met has thunder between 1pm and 2pm today

That thundery cell is making its way up the country, looks like it might skirt past Dublin to the west though.

sunnyday1234

Based near fermoy, got a right smashing - as bad as ophelia

No power or mobile service

kadman

Thankfully here in the midlands, Mullingar/Kilbeggan area, it was basically
peaceful in relation to what others experienced.
Bit showery this morning, and light wind. I was able to go for my morning walk so its all good here.

I feel for those homes and businesses that face flood damage year on year, and nothing substantial done
to remedy this situation.

eastie17

East Cork very bad, local radio wasn’t even doing it justice. Trees down everywhere, most R and L roads blocked into Midleton

Rebelbrowser

Sorry if this has been answered but where does the 147km/h gust last night rank against other recent storms? I know Ophelia and Darwin were both higher...

Graces7

Cody montana wrote: »

The pear did not survive.

RIPear

Still, some small critter will have had a feast .

spookwoman

https://twitter.com/WaterfordCounci/status/1296387195624919041?s=20

The Undecided One

Nenagh Co Tipperary, very badly hit, loads of trees down, power outages etc

lucernarian

There's a lot of curving movement in those cells making their way towards Kildare. Some concerning hook-like features in one in particular.

Hawthorn Tree

Has Sryanbruen done his storm comparison chart yet?

sryanbruen

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Sorry if this has been answered but where does the 147km/h gust last night rank against other recent storms? I know Ophelia and Darwin were both higher...

I will update the table later on if people are that interested. Out at the moment.

Darwin

Had some heavy rain for a while and one clap of thunder (SW Laois), but clearing nicely now. Callan has been in the firing line all morning with torrential rain and lightning.

Carlosh103

Lots of trees down on the old Limerick - Nenagh road and throughout North Tipperary.
Heading home from work this morning, I've never seen so many trees down on the road.

realdanbreen

What's the rainfall prediction for this evening/tonight?

lucernarian

Darwin wrote: »

Had some heavy rain for a while and one clap of thunder (SW Laois), but clearing nicely now. Callan has been in the firing line all morning with torrential rain and lightning.

How was the wind?

SleetAndSnow

Was sent pictures of my house in cork city, trees down in my estate that I didn't think would ever blow down!

Still very gusty and windy down here in West cork but expected because we are next to the coast. Was a wild night. Branches etc everywhere. No damage though thankfully and power stayed on but one of the strongest storms that I experience no doubt.

Edit: nvm just did a bit of a walk around and shed and fence has been damaged it looks like a bit

Hope everybody is ok

km79

Escaped it all in South mayo thankfully. Even the rain didn't wake me

ACitizenErased

Still fairly windy here in Rochestown, no power but still have mobile service. No trees down by the looks of it, we escaped clearly because there is a lot of trees up here.

lucernarian

Estofex warning today of a low risk of tornadoes forming:

"A high-shear, low-CAPE situations is expected across the western British Isles today. East of a strong low-pressure system across the Atlantic, a very strong flow with 30 m/s wind speed at 850 hPa overlaps with a plume of moist and rather warm maritime air ahead of a cold front. Destabilization is forecast across Ireland due to some diurnal heating and showers and thunderstorms are forecast. Especially storms that can stay isolated for some time can produce tornadoes given very strong low-level shear and weak cold pool potential."

realdanbreen

realdanbreen wrote: »

What's the rainfall prediction for this evening/tonight?

OldRio

Plenty of power outages in the local area. 2 trees fallen on the farm and plenty more down in the area.
Heavy rain at the moment.
Leitrim.

pauldry

Dry storm in Sligo

5.4mm of rain in total but branches n trees down in numerous locations

Darwin

lucernarian wrote: »

How was the wind?

Worst of it was last night between 1 and 2, nothing of any note this morning.
ECMWF model predicted gusts of 145Kph in the midlands at its peak, happily never came to pass.

Rebelbrowser

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Still fairly windy here in Rochestown, no power but still have mobile service. No trees down by the looks of it, we escaped clearly because there is a lot of trees up here.

There is a small tree uprooted on the main through road in Mount Oval for completeness sake!

Pretzill

Cody montana wrote: »

Pray for pansies.

In fairness, my pear tree produced its first and only pear this year.
I’m afraid to check if it’s still on the tree.

My pear tree produced a load this year and they are all still intact - pears must be hardy fruits

silverharp

HeidiHeidi wrote: »

That thundery cell is making its way up the country, looks like it might skirt past Dublin to the west though.

I just looked at the radar, there were probably some heavy showers in Meath and Kildare and nothing of significance for the next couple of hours for Dublin

aidanodr

So the day after the night before ... here in cork. What are we to expect as this day rolls on? Are we over the worst OR round 2 due at some point?

Even Tornadoes

???

https://twitter.com/Netweather/status/1296402457883484168