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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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seabelle

I thought it was all over. It was a lovely bright morning but we've had thunder lightning and very heavy rain in Youghal for the last 20 minutes.

pnpweirdo

sumtings wrote: »

Shannon reported a 113km gust in the last hour, would at least tally with what was seen in Limerick

And that squall missed shannon. It was worse in limerick city east clare at about 12.20am. It was horrendous. Power was gone no street lights the rain was hitting houses and ground so hard it created a misty fog in over 100km winds

Beechwoodspark

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Absolute carnage here in mid Kildare. Rubbish strewn all over the roads, hedges and greenery also. Am concerned about the back roads being impassable.

Update - roads passable but untidy with strewn leaves and branches

sammyjo90

leahyl wrote: »

Think I just heard thunder in cork city

We must be neighbours cause i did too!

HeidiHeidi

seabelle wrote: »

I thought it was all over. It was a lovely bright morning but we've had thunder lightning and very heavy rain in Youghal for the last 20 minutes.

This would explain the last few Cork-related posts!

(Sorry, can't embed it)

nthclare

Thankfully in North Clare it's business as usual, hardly any debris on the roads and the river's are swollen slightly alright.

So sorry to hear about people's property businesses and roadways blocked and flooded.

The engineer's in this county need to ask the older generation how it was done back in the day.
I'm know some aul fellas in their 70's and 80's who'd run ring's around the modern day engineer's in country councils.

Because diverting river's and drainage schemes in the last 30 year's have been a national catastrophe.

There's some idiot's out there who have no clue about how river's streams and lake's work...

leeside11

sammyjo90 wrote: »

We must be neighbours cause i did too!

Same, north of Blackpool 5 mins ago

aidanodr

Carrigaline, Co. Cork reporting ..

Last half hour or so lots of thunder/lightning and torrential downpours.

Passed on a bit now, but im sure wont be the last of it today.

1percent

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I thought skibbereen was part of the flood relief scheme?,

It's not the river bursting its banks that was the issue this time, there is a culvert up the old Baltimore cut that takes all the run off from the hills, that culvert got clogged so the run off goes down the road and through the ally next to the hotel to the river instead. It happened in 2016 I want to say as well.

leahyl

Someone on local radio here in cork talking about their shed taking off last night and flying in different directions :-P

teednab-el

leahyl wrote: »

Someone on local radio here in cork talking about their shed taking off last night and flying in different directions :-P

You might shed some light into that for us?

stevenup7002

Electricity finally came back after being gone for twelve hours. Not ten minutes later, thunderstorm starts.

titan18

In cork city, and heavens just opened. Had a good 5 minutes of torrential rain and now the sun is coming out.

Hearing Thunder now

sweet_trip

Thunder and lightning in clonmel.
Absolutely lashing down.

Samsgirl

Thunder and lightning in Cahir now

adocholiday

Massive tree came down in my neighbour's garden in South Wicklow even though the winds weren't particularly strong here. No damage done thankfully other than the tree itself. None of mine came down, was very worried about them though. Have a few that are well over 100 years old and would be awful to lose them.

[Deleted User]

1percent wrote: »

It's not the river bursting its banks that was the issue this time, there is a culvert up the old Baltimore cut that takes all the run off from the hills, that culvert got clogged so the run off goes down the road and through the ally next to the hotel to the river instead. It happened in 2016 I want to say as well.

Council responsibility?

Oscar Bravo

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Dublin, Louth, Wexford, Wicklow, Meath, Cork, Kerry and Waterford

Very strong south to southeast winds later today, veering southwesterly overnight with the potential for further impacts and a continued risk of coastal

spookwoman

Tramore, no major waves this morning, not worth getting out of bed for.

watlantic

Latest OPC surface analysis:

StackSteevens

Deleted User wrote: »

Council responsibility?

Probably. Although, given the volume of water coming off the hills, the culvert probably couldn't have coped even if the storm debris hadn't clogged it up.

Cody montana

Cody montana wrote: »

Pray for pansies.

In fairness, my pear tree produced its first and only pear this year.
I’m afraid to check if it’s still on the tree.

The pear did not survive.

Dodge

Cody montana wrote: »

The pear did not survive.

Thoughts and prayers

SpitfireIV

Flash of lightening and clap of thunder in Kilkenny City. Very dark here, expecting very heavy rain.

Cody montana

Dodge wrote: »

Thoughts and prayers

Thoughts and pears?

chris2007

Is there thunderstorms heading for Dublin today

TheRiverman

Roadside trees,a huge issue ignored and neglected by Government, County Councils and landowners for decades.They should be all cut down,everytime there is a storm,you can write the same script about roads blocked.Thankfully I haven't heard about any fatalities.

Gods Gift

chris2007 wrote: »

Is there thunderstorms heading for Dublin today

There not specifically heading to Dublin, just passing up over the country.

Sephiroth_dude

Cody montana wrote: »

Thoughts and pears?

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DrGreenThumb82

TheRiverman wrote: »

Roadside trees,a huge issue ignored and neglected by Government, County Councils and landowners for decades.They should be all cut down,everytime there is a storm,you can write the same script about roads blocked.Thankfully I haven't heard about any fatalities.

:rolleyes: