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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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HeyV

https://twitter.com/c103cork/status/1296334817425084418?s=21

Banana Republic.

HeyV wrote: »

https://twitter.com/c103cork/status/1296334817425084418?s=21

Always seem to be freaked out by that kinda thing, like getting a view of under the world

teednab-el

We must have missed the storm in Cork North West. Just got few gusts and plenty of rain and thunder and lightning.

Pistachio19

Graces7 wrote: »

Crazy out there but energising in a way. The sky is that shade of navy blue/purple ….
Next job is to sort re the grocery delivery which will not be happening today.

Still one cat awol. Poor lad is probably hiding. Can't blame him as the wind is still ferocious. Love the look of the ocean in these circumstances.

I happened to get up at 5.40am and the cat who usually disappears during bad weather was on the window looking to get in. I was delighted to see him. He's been in since.

thomil

Sephiroth_dude wrote: »

No power loss here in Ballincollig, was half expecting to wake up to it gone.

Seems that only the "core" parts of Ballincollig have power at the moment though. There's a ring of power outages around the town, almost like a donut.

It was certainly an "interesting" evening and night, to say the least, even after the worst had passed over. Not much to see in the way of damage from my place. Still pretty gusty though.

Graces7

Pistachio19 wrote: »

I happened to get up at 5.40am and the cat who usually disappears during bad weather was on the window looking to get in. I was delighted to see him. He's been in since.

Two of mine who had been out all night raced in earlier, sodden. And fast asleep since. Just the one still out. He will come home when he is hungry. They are safe out here.

highdef

pad199207 wrote: »

Gust of 98KMH at Casement

A storm force 10 gust in not exceptional by any means for Casement but is strong for the time of year.

highdef

teednab-el wrote: »

We must have missed the storm in Cork North West. Just got few gusts and plenty of rain and thunder and lightning.

Sounds like you got the best bit of the storm if you got lots of thunder/lightning!!!!

[Deleted User]

It peaked at 40 kmh in North kerry. 5mm rain since midnight

GhostyMcGhost

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

I had a look on his FB page again this morning. The amount of people thanking him for getting it spot on is incredible. It's like some kind of mass delusion.

Cathal Nolan, from Ireland's Weather Channel, says it's the worst weather since Storm Ophelia, which claimed three lives in 2017.
"Certainly this storm ranks pretty evenly with Storm Ophelia," he said. "Some parts of the country have seen gusts of wind in the past few hours that have even exceeded the levels that were recorded during Storm Ophelia and of course the damage to power supplies is of a similar nature."

First it was worse than hurricane Charley, now it’s on par with Ophelia ...

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/195000-homes-businesses-without-power-due-to-storm-ellen-1014542.html

Robxxx7

Here in Mid Kerry it was pretty calm to be honest, top wind speed in my location of 62.8kmh and had about 23mm of rain since around 9:30 pm last night

Fakediamond

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Anyone know the max gust from last night?

93.3 km/h at 22.35 in Carlow, according to Carlow Weather. I couldn’t sleep with the noise. Lots of trees around here so I’m expecting some damage.

revelman

It has been absolutely wild here all morning on the coast near Kinsale. We are in a pretty exposed place so are used to wind. On a scale out of 10, I would say about 7 out of 10. I’m no expert but this seems like orange level stuff to me.

Samsgirl

Just trying to get to work here in Tipp. Place is in bits. All roads out of Aherlow blocked.

mikep

Fakediamond wrote: »

93.3 km/h at 22.35 in Carlow, according to Carlow Weather. I couldn’t sleep with the noise. Lots of trees around here so I’m expecting some damage.

There was as 77kt (147 km/h) gust at reported at Roches Point, entrance to Cork Harbour

edit: Sorry, meant to quote MilkyPirate..

The_Outsider

Maxed out at 108kmh here at around 12:40am

bloody loud enough to keep me awake

m17

Skibbereen co cork (pic Twitter)

Beechwoodspark

Absolute carnage here in mid Kildare. Rubbish strewn all over the roads, hedges and greenery also. Am concerned about the back roads being impassable.

Xtrail14

Made some rain between the showers here and football rolled down the lawn, south west.

teednab-el

It wasnt anywhere as deadly as storm Darwin or even Ophelia lets be honest. Orange Warning at some locations at a push.

MJohnston

A big tree down just off Johnstown Road in Cabinteely, Co Dublin.

Supposed to see this as I didn’t think we’d gotten got that badly here, but obviously shows you the vulnerability of trees to wind this time of year.

Danzy

5 trees down on my road

[Deleted User]

m17 wrote: »

Skibbereen co cork (pic Twitter)

I thought skibbereen was part of the flood relief scheme?,

Oscar Bravo

Status Yellow Rainfall warning for Ireland
Met Éireann Weather Warning

Heavy squally downpours and thunderstorms will bring a risk of spot flooding at times today and tonight.

Valid: 09:00 Thursday 20/08/2020 to 05:00 Friday 21/08/2020

leahyl

Think I just heard thunder in cork city

sryanbruen

teednab-el wrote: »

It wasnt anywhere as deadly as storm Darwin or even Ophelia lets be honest. Orange Warning at some locations at a push.

Regardless, it was a remarkable storm for the time of year with national August records set.

StackSteevens

Deleted User wrote: »

I thought skibbereen was part of the flood relief scheme?,

It's not finished yet - and while it may be able to handle the River Ilen in spate, I suspect that no Irish flood relief scheme can handle flash flooding of the kind that occurred last night!

Danzy

There never will be be a flood system here that will handle that level of flash flood rain.

hurikane

markjbloggs wrote: »

If these trends continue, this should be hugely embarrassing for Met Eireann. Not the first time they have cried wolf in recent years of course but the impact of their warning on struggling tourism businesses should leave them open to some very difficult questions

No need for the MET Éireann tribunal so......

Banana Republic.

Some drying in it