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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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Itssoeasy

Even though the red warning has been over for nearly six hours here in cork it's still miserable here in cork. It's not stopped raining. Esb power check showing that return of power times in cork city for those who lost power as after midday. I'd love to know the rainfall number for cork city since 10pm last night. I've not looked in my back garden yet to see what size of tree branches are scattered around.

Denny61

Yes I'm.the same..who is IMC !!!

jimmynokia

Denny61 wrote: »

Yes I'm.the same..who is IMC !!!

A Clueless clown that several radio stations let him on air today spewing nonsense

corks finest

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Even though the red warning has been over for nearly six hours here in cork it's still miserable here in cork. It's not stopped raining. Esb power check showing that return of power times in cork city for those who lost power as after midday. I'd love to know the rainfall number for cork city since 10pm last night. I've not looked in my back garden yet to see what size of tree branches are scattered around.

Blowing big in Carrigaline still ( not constantly though)

Zapperzy

Neighbours tin shed clean gone this morning, gone over 3 walls knocking one.

I lost sunflowers, lupins and all my radish seedlings. Would've been worse if I'd not prepared. Woke up at 1.45am with the wind howling, I almost never wake up during storms!

East Galway.

NIMAN

Its calming now in N.Donegal, but I went outside at around 4:30 or so, and it was the loudest I have heard in a long time.
Lot of big trees around me, and they were creating some amount of noise.

Was a rough night overall. If people had it worse than here, and I'm sure there was plenty, then I don't envy them.

Tandey

Denny61 wrote: »

Yes I'm.the same..who is IMC !!!

A cinema chain.

MY BAD

Looking at the ESB power outage map it looks like the entire country had a rough night.
https://www.esb.ie/esb-networks/powercheck/index.html

sweet_trip

MY BAD wrote: »

Looking at the ESB power outage map it looks like the entire country had a rough night.
https://www.esb.ie/esb-networks/powercheck/index.html

Where I live says there's a fault since last night but nobody around here has lost power.

kyomi

Ramping up here on the Mizen peninsula... This seems worse than during the red warning. Got woken up around 20 minutes ago by rain slamming against the windows, and there's been plenty of thunder and lightning since then. Still have power though.

DOCARCH

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Met Éireann got this by and large spot on.
M.É. 1, IWC 0.

+1 re ME. I think they got it spot on.

However I don't think IWC was ever a contender for comparison!

cyclops999

Heavy rainfall in Athlone now very rough night lots of trees down.

M.T. Cranium

Just adding up hourly reports, Cork had 25.6 mm of rain since this time yesterday morning. Some places further west had 40-50.

The country is now left in an unstable southwesterly flow with lines of showers and thunderstorms developing, some parts of Munster and the midlands could see hail with their thunderstorms.

Winds will continue blustery although generally below warning criteria, but could sometimes approach 100 km/hr in gusts.

Mrcaramelchoc

Zapperzy wrote: »

Neighbours tin shed clean gone this morning, gone over 3 walls knocking one.

I lost sunflowers, lupins and all my radish seedlings. Would've been worse if I'd not prepared. Woke up at 1.45am with the wind howling, I almost never wake up during storms!

East Galway.

Sunflowers lupins and radishes.........Jesus there must have been Carnage.thoughts and prayers etc

Cody montana

Mrcaramelchoc wrote: »

Sunflowers lupins and radishes.........Jesus there must have been Carnage.thoughts and prayers etc

Pray for pansies.

In fairness, my pear tree produced its first and only pear this year.
I’m afraid to check if it’s still on the tree.

Macdarack

2>3am in West Clare was ropey enough, very strong winds, I got up to do a quick check around the place and went back to bed. Talking to the Mrs now and she didn't believe me when I said it was that bad, it's very tranquil now out side with blue skies.

mymo

Wind and rain woke me at 1.40ish and again a bit after 4am, don't see any damage at the moment, still pretty wild. I'm on Kilkenny/Carlow border and friends on the mountains lost power about 9pm, not heard from them since, we still have power.

Flippyfloppy

Ah. Feels like the old days when storms were the height of newsworthy chatter!

TheMilkyPirate

Anyone know the max gust from last night?

DOCARCH

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Anyone know the max gust from last night?

143kmh (...I think...) at Roches Point.

teednab-el

This storm isnt what we were told it waa going to be.

froog

Crazy night. Still gusting and random downpours of rain. All sorts of debris in the garden. Carnage on the roads with trees down. Dont expect power back for quite a while. East cork.

mossie

Absolutely torrential rain here at the moment (N. Cork) thunder and lightning in the area too.

redsteveireland

Lots of trees down, thankfully most of them are not on the road. Friend have trouble getting into work from Roscommon with trees down all over the place.
Thunderstorms look like the next fun part.

eon1208

Fellow enthusiasts.. A quick question. Can someone explain why the strongest winds were to the east of the northwards moving eye and the heaviest rains were to the west of the eye. I slept through it. Work had me done ha. I dint think that much rain fell in North East Laois. Anyone any figures..

HeidiHeidi

*eadaoin wrote: »

Wow wind really picking up in Dublin 8 now, it’s howling around the city. I’m close to the new children’s hospital that’s being built and the sound of the wind in all the cranes is eerie!

I'm somewhere near you, so..... I wondered how those cranes would fare when I was driving home around 11pm last night! Thankfully I slept through the whole thing, and just had to tie up a few exhausted-looking sunflowers this morning.

CFlat wrote: »

On a boat in Carrick on Shannon getting battered like **** here. It's probably worse on the water but in all my years boating I don't think I've experienced something as bad.

Jaysus, that's either v brave or v foolish! As much as I love being tucked up on a boat in a blow, I'm not sure I'd have tried it last night. Hope you survived the night!

Graces7

Zapperzy wrote: »

Neighbours tin shed clean gone this morning, gone over 3 walls knocking one.

I lost sunflowers, lupins and all my radish seedlings. Would've been worse if I'd not prepared. Woke up at 1.45am with the wind howling, I almost never wake up during storms!

East Galway.

That word had me racing outside! Ah poor lupins! Felled by Ellen! Still a few buds left though.. Flowers are hard fought for out here. And they make lovely cut flowers..

Sephiroth_dude

No power loss here in Ballincollig, was half expecting to wake up to it gone.

[Deleted User]

My little area of the world seems to have missed the brunt of the storm, thankfully.

I hope everyone is ok. It’s good that there are no reports of loss of life.

Graces7

Crazy out there but energising in a way. The sky is that shade of navy blue/purple ….
Next job is to sort re the grocery delivery which will not be happening today.

Still one cat awol. Poor lad is probably hiding. Can't blame him as the wind is still ferocious. Love the look of the ocean in these circumstances.

And another sideways deluge now.