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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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TheBody

Power just gone in North Longford.

TTLF

https://mobile.twitter.com/vxlks/status/1296257503374835712

rossie1977

Power gone west Roscommon

mountainy man

Lost power here in South East Sligo. Wind only starting to ramp up now.

darragh13542

I'm in Carrick on Shannon and the amount of trees snapping is mad, I've a flask, torch and candles ready, this storm has brought the cold with it too

An Ri rua

pad199207 wrote: »

Having some very opheliaesque gusts in Kildare now

Similar near Mountmellick/Portlaoise. Standard fare in the main but a few very serious gusts in last half hour.

darragh13542

Power gone to roscommon side of Carrick on Shannon, still strong gusts

auspicious

Mid Midlands. Sustained winds. Lashing rain.
Rotten weather.

The HorsesMouth

In a yellow warning county and it is quite easily an orange out there for sure. Never heard anything like it.

pad199207

Easing down now in Kildare. One or two gusts was borderline Ophelia but nowhere near as sustained as Ophelia or as damaging. She’s still the one to beat.

A good strong Yellow a good call by Met Eireann

Fitzo123

Horrendous in Sligo town.

NIMAN

Its rough up here in N. Donegal now.

bluedoor27

Electricity gone in south longford!! Lashing down and sustained winds. Managed to keep power during Ophelia but not Ellen!!

darragh13542

Has eased sone what in Carrick on Shannon but I'd say thats the eye moving north, lights keep flickering though

Dank Janniels

That electrical fault in Ballygar seems to have taken out half of east Galway!

NIMAN

How long is this to continue to hit Ireland?

Will it be here for most of the day tomorrow?

darragh13542

The eye is over sligo and south donegal moving in northeast direction

NIMAN

Seems to be ramping up a little more in the last 10 mins ... the roof is creaking now as well with the gusts.

Been a long time since I remember those noises.

nacho libre

It's still quite windy now, but the peak of it was from 1-2 am. I thought the electricity might go out at one stage, but it did not. It was certainly the strongest sustained wind I've experienced in recent years.

Graces7

Graces7 wrote: »

Goodnight all. Take care and stay safe. All quiet here now.

Did I really think that was it? I really should know better!

Marine red; coastal and 12 miles out to sea.

Howling and battering. Nasty tempered Ellen.

Two sodden cats came in when I called; two were in all night and one is still out there. Plenty of shelter.

Gregor Samsa

I’m in a mobile home right in the Atlantic coast in Co. Clare. At 0:04, I went out in the deck to see what it was like. It was very breezy, but nothing unusual. Literally the second I came back inside, the wind picked up, and within a minute, rain was lashing in sideways, battering the front window, which faces west and has an unobstructed view of the ocean 50m away. I was half sure the window was going to come in, so I went to bed down the back, as far away from it as possible (but couldn’t sleep).

I was waiting for the wind to veer southerly, because there’s a hill to the south and I thought we’d get some shelter. It did veer southerly around 02:30, but there was no shelter, and the side of the mobile got an absolute pounding.

It finally eased off around 03:30. It’s still breezy, but it’s not rocking the mobile and it doesn’t feel like the windows are going to burst in any more. There’s a few big gusts from time to time.

Have to say, for a couple of hours there, it was pretty scary. Not going to risk it again Thursday night - windy.com is showing some more very high wind for Friday morning. Home is only a 30 minute drive away, so I’ll head after breakfast.

Graces7

Well, the place is not shaking so it cannot be THAT bad. ...In eg Callum it shook and shivered. The rain is battering the front with a merciless venom. The door is on the dog lead, Storm tactics.... Routine!

Just reading rte news online. Orange for Mayo until 6 am. Ferocious. Some slight shivering of the place.

Pretzill

Power out, wind has eased.

South Sligo
90m asl

NIMAN

Wind seems to be ramping up again of late

NIMAN

Good to hear from you again Graces, hope you're keeping safe out there!

eskimocat

Well.Ellen managed something many other storms didn't...woke me with the noise! About an hour ago it was fierce here in the countryside outside of Sligo town. And still with significant gusts. Sadly my little weather station is only reading it like a stiff breeze...whatevers wrong with it... The trees are bowing almost to the ground here. A lowly 2 on the Beaufort scale that is not, little weather station! Hi to all the old familiar weather heads, nice to see ye all on the go. Stay safe out there.

Pangea

Nothing notable here in Donegal , seems to be calming now.

Gaoth Laidir

Met Éireann got this by and large spot on.
M.É. 1, IWC 0.

Let's see how he defends this one, with his red zone over half of the country. He will say that the "models" were wrong and that's not his fault, but all he does is takes the most impressive chart and claims that this is a sure thing, without ever discussing the range of different model data and the likely outcomes. He has zero knowledge and only knows how to look for colours on a map. Unfortunately there seems to be a following of people who take his word more seriously than the official forecasts, which can lead to panic and worry.

Still, he doesn't care about any of this and is only interested in promoting himself. The "Please Share" appeal on every post and the personal attributes he claims on Twitter just proves this

Chong

Who is IWC?

Gaoth Laidir

Chong wrote: »

Who is IWC?

Ireland's Weather Channel Facebook page.