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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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TTLF

Something I find interesting is, Dublin never really looses power?

Even during the worst of Storm Emma or even Ophelia, my power never went down. Maybe its because of where I live, or something else, but i find it odd

yet other times when there's no storm at all, the power goes out randomly

[Deleted User]

Met Eireann got it right. Again.
Still, it's fun being an amateur and enjoying the drama.

BrosnanL27

It's times like this this that I'm cursing my neighbours back garden wind chime. Louder than the ***kin wind.

CruelSummer

Extremely wild in Galway after a moment of eerie calm. Damaging gusts & seems like high sustained winds also.

dasdog

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Getting stormy now - D14

There's a bunch of quite tall evergreen trees 20m from where I am taking the brunt of it - they'll be the same tomorrow. I secured my balcony tomato plants earlier but they owe those trees a pint at the very least.

It's a Southerly gusty breeze - quite nice actually.

Danno

Clementine Thousands Kleptomaniac wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/JointCyclone/status/1296241260517154816

Is this significant or just par for the course?

I'm literally in the crosshairs of that yellow zone. 51mph so far here. Not a hope of seeing 88mph let alone 88kt!

Little snowy old me

TTLF wrote: »

Something I find interesting is, Dublin never really looses power?

Even during the worst of Storm Emma or even Ophelia, my power never went down. Maybe its because of where I live, or something else, but i find it odd

yet other times when there's no storm at all, the power goes out randomly

Most power cables in Dublin and suburbs are underground.

syngindub

TTLF wrote: »

Something I find interesting is, Dublin never really looses power?

well, it's number 1 priority for power so no, it shouldnt ever lose power !!

*eadaoin

Wow wind really picking up in Dublin 8 now, it’s howling around the city. I’m close to the new children’s hospital that’s being built and the sound of the wind in all the cranes is eerie!

utmbuilder

Blowing hard now in meath

LollipopJimmy

Green bin just went over here. cans rolling around the garden now. Dublin 8

pad199207

Having some very opheliaesque gusts in Kildare now

axe2grind

The wind speed at Roches point earlier looks like an August record for ROI, well at least since 1942
https://www.met.ie/climate/weather-extreme-records

[Deleted User]

Clementine Thousands Kleptomaniac wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/JointCyclone/status/1296241260517154816

Is this significant or just par for the course?

A load of unsubstantiated cobblers. Did I tell you I'm operating "The International Storm Centre" from my shed? Keep on eye out for daily updates on Twitter, I've appropriated the Batman searchlight and slapped an angry cloud on it. Our latest bulletin:

vid36

Power outages are far north as East Galway now.Some of them quite significant too in Loughrea and parts of Ballinasloe.

CBear1993

utmbuilder wrote: »

Blowing hard now in meath

It’s been a while so I thought I’d surprise you tonight

TTLF

really starting to pick up now, way winder than it would usually be in the valley im in

scarepanda

vid36 wrote: »

Power outages are far north as East Galway now.Some of them quite significant too in Loughrea and parts of Ballinasloe.

I suspect a good portion of Ballinasloe is out. The wind started to kick up here around 12.30/12.45, power was out around 1.00.

vid36

Parts of County Roscommon and Leitrim now in the dark too.

TTLF

would be cool to see a live satellite of areas without power and areas with power

pad199207

Casement might catch a decent gust

snowstreams

It's really gone crazy here in the last hour near athenry.
Thankfully I still have power here but its gone further east.
I see my tado heating system thinks the window is open too due to the wind gusts creating a draft!

[Deleted User]

TTLF wrote: »

Something I find interesting is, Dublin never really looses power?

Even during the worst of Storm Emma or even Ophelia, my power never went down. Maybe its because of where I live, or something else, but i find it odd

yet other times when there's no storm at all, the power goes out randomly

There's a network of stations feeding you power. I'm currently in rural east Galway and a single tree falling can take out power for the road and extended area.

syngindub

vid36 wrote: »

Parts of County Roscommon and Leitrim now in the dark too.

no comment

dummy_crusher

vid36 wrote: »

Parts of County Roscommon and Leitrim now in the dark too.

This is news?

CFlat

On a boat in Carrick on Shannon getting battered like **** here. It's probably worse on the water but in all my years boating I don't think I've experienced something as bad.

[Deleted User]

snowstreams wrote: »

It's really gone crazy here in the last hour near athenry.
Thankfully I still have power here but its gone further east.
I see my tado heating system thinks the window is open too due to the wind gusts creating a draft!

Hi Neighbour!

DaithiMa

Thar she blows!! Some seriously strong gusts here now. 8 miles N and slightly W of Tuam on a hilltop.

darragh13542

CFlat wrote: »

On a boat in Carrick on Shannon getting battered like **** here. It's probably worse on the water but in all my years boating I don't think I've experienced something as bad.

I agree I'm in a house and power could go, lights are flickering, where in the eye wall now

pad199207

Gust of 98KMH at Casement