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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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un5byh7sqpd2x0

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

Next to LIT, still got power

Either the ESB are lying or it doesn’t effect you :pac:

notwhoyouthink

Gatlin Refined Medicine wrote: »

Either the ESB are lying or it doesn’t effect you :pac:

Will this storm impact Dublin, specifically clontarf?

pad199207

Major Fault in Sallins now. Over 2000

Limpy

Imagine been in a coma since xmas, waking up thinking omg, were all gonna die it's Armageddon. House's are on fire, buildings knocked down, power outages ect. And the nurse says it not that bad trust me, what you mean it's crazy out? Feck this I'm going for a pint....

Ah about that...

NIMAN

Wind not bad in Donegal, but chucking it down

Irish Wolf

notwhoyouthink wrote: »

Will this storm impact Dublin, specifically clontarf?

You're safe, Joe. It'll recognise you and realise nothing can blow more air than yourself.

smellyoldboot

Jesus if the power goes a few more miles north east it'll be like bloody Mad Max.

Will make the Lidl snow party look like a teddy bears picnic.

Dank Janniels

Power cut in north east Galway, fairly blustery out

Tefral

In East Clare and its been mental here for 2 hours. It dulled down for about 20mins but cranking back up again.

yammagamma

That Shannon gust must have been one that came through my garden around 12 on southwest direction, garden destroyed with large ash tree branches down branches like 2 foot wide buried a foot into grass at least 4 of them ,power went just before they came down, worst damage ever and I'm in caherline outside caherconlish in limerick,

spookwoman

Bed for a few hours till the fun starts again

TTLF

starting to pick up in Dublin a little, raining again

syngindub

massive attack a great listen right now !!

[Deleted User]

Lights flickering here in east Galway. Some very strong gusts in the last few minutes.

[Deleted User]

syngindub wrote: »

massive attack a great listen right now !!

Teardrop?

syngindub

Deleted User wrote: »

Teardrop?

what a tune

DaithiMa

Am around 7 miles North and slightly West of Tuam not far from Mayo border on an exposed hill. Was really gusty for a couple of hours with a fair belt of rain but gone eerily quiet now.

smellyoldboot

TTLF wrote: »

starting to pick up in Dublin a little, raining again

If a tree goes it'll be on the 6/1 news tomorrow.

BLIZZARD7

Getting stormy now - D14

Dodge

Pretty noisy now in Dublin. I was awake but it woke up the rest of the house

An Ri rua

Rikand wrote: »

I have the trampoline well weighted down, but I'm still worried for it

The hint is in the name. They're a lot like Tomcats. Touch of the tramp about them. They never come back home by midnight.

pad199207

Lights flickering now in Kildare. I’d say it’s about to go.

paulusdu

Power gone in east Galway, back again a few minutes later. Savage sounds coming from outside with the wind howling around the house.

TTLF

https://twitter.com/vxlks/status/1296247610043510784

Best video i could get, not too bad by the looks of it in dublin but keep in mind i live in a valley

syngindub

An Ri rua wrote: »

The hint is in the name. They're a lot like Tomcats. Touch of the tramp about them. They never come back home by midnight.

trampoline M50 bound

vickers209

On a staycation at moment in limerick staying in maldron and power has gone in hotel
thought they have a jenny doesnt look like it

My god that one of worst storms i can remember

yammagamma

smellyoldboot wrote: »

If a tree goes it'll be on the 6/1 news tomorrow.

The winds that hit my property were way worse then when the country was shut down with other storms but sure I'm only living in limerick which constantly gets bypassed with warnings, every county up west coast gets warnings bar limerick but hey it's "met Dublin"

Rougies

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Getting stormy now - D14

I was going to say the same but you might get lynched for being in a 20km radius of RTE headquarters.

syngindub

TTLF wrote: »

https://twitter.com/vxlks/status/1296247610043510784

Best video i could get, not too bad by the looks of it in dublin but keep in mind i live in a valley

give it 30 or 40 minutes and gusts will pick up in Dublin

r93kaey5p2izun

https://mobile.twitter.com/JointCyclone/status/1296241260517154816

Is this significant or just par for the course?