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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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syngindub

looking like few outages on the ESB side of things so far

Humberto Salazar

Temperature has dropped 3C in an hour as the hook nears.

AdamB

Hmmm now to drive Clonmel to Dungarvan??? The worst seems to have passed but lot of reports of trees down all over Tipp and Waterford.

Jpmarn

We got a sting jet in the last hour and lightening near Limerick city. Share of trees down on my road. Had to take in a neighbour who was blocked from going home from shift work. Roof over my bedroom is leaking with the very heavy rain. Winds have eased since. My brothers Apple tree in his front lawn is down. There is a bit of history with it. Power is gone.

spookwoman

AdamB wrote: »

Hmmm now to drive Clonmel to Dungarvan??? The worst seems to have passed but lot of reports of trees down all over Tipp and Waterford.

Take care

Larbre34

AdamB wrote: »

Hmmm now to drive Clonmel to Dungarvan??? The worst seems to have passed but lot of reports of trees down all over Tipp and Waterford.

Why in the name of jaysis would you do that?

limericklad87

Larbre34 wrote: »

Why in the name of jaysis would you do that?

Home from work... finished at 1am from what I recall

Graces7

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I think you can expect a quiet night in general, winds likely to remain light northeast or variable in that area, then will pick up to moderate southwest by daybreak, nothing too strong at any point as Ellen weakens and moves past Mayo into the North Atlantic. Rain also won't be too fierce there, some squally showers could develop towards morning.

You may actually get a more impactful period of weather late Thursday or on Friday.

Thank you. Interesting as the worst weather has been bypassing us all week like this. Most unusual.

ChikiChiki

AdamB wrote: »

Hmmm now to drive Clonmel to Dungarvan??? The worst seems to have passed but lot of reports of trees down all over Tipp and Waterford.

Can you stay in your location? I would be wary of trees and live cables.

pnpweirdo

Thankfully it has calmed down a bit here in limerick city. Power gone. That was the worst weather ive ever witnessed. Look out further up the country for that squall

lil_ms_fu ky

In kinsale. Got hit hard around 10pm. Very scary wind. The windows and doors were shaking. Remained very windy and non stop rain until around 12.30. Calm at present but don’t know if that just means we are in the eye of the storm. Just looked at windy.com and it has us in the eye. Does anyone know if that’s it now or will it get windy again?

spookwoman

AdamB wrote: »

Hmmm now to drive Clonmel to Dungarvan??? The worst seems to have passed but lot of reports of trees down all over Tipp and Waterford.

Live map of roadworks fallen trees etc
https://www.mapalerter.com/maps/desktop/public/?level=6&center=-7.652402358305685,52.34409269369311

Rocket99

Winds starting to pick up now in North Kildare

Banana Republic.

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Can you stay in your location? I would be wary of trees and live cables.

I’d second that, lots of trees weakened, don’t be in a rush to get home after work either, still take the breaks if needed. Better be home later then planned. Drive safe on the road if you have to make that journey.

Oi5in

very intense 45 mins there just before midnight, worst i can remember in long time, still have power but not much longer id say. Its the rain now doing the damage, lots flooding and trees down in North Cork.

Geuze

Is it moving Cork - LK - Clare - GY?

Or Cork/Waterford - Tipp - KK - midlands?

Graces7

Goodnight all. Take care and stay safe. All quiet here now.

endainoz

spookwoman wrote: »

Live map of roadworks fallen trees etc
https://www.mapalerter.com/maps/desktop/public/?level=6&center=-7.652402358305685,52.34409269369311

That's quite handy, and with the added bonus of finding out who is applying for planning. How fantastically Irish.

Gerianam

Sleep well, Graces. Stay safe xx

Rikand

I have the trampoline well weighted down, but I'm still worried for it

TTLF

Geuze wrote: »

Is it moving Cork - LK - Clare - GY?

Or Cork/Waterford - Tipp - KK - midlands?

Cork/Waterford - Tipp - KK - midlands/east coast i think?

Lobsterlady

East Limerick, not too far from Caherconlish. Power went early, around 10pm when there was only a mild wind. It seriously kicked off here at 12, I'm surrounded by oak trees, saw large branches fall, flashes of lightening, plant pots, someones rubbish flying around, debris everywhere as far as I can make out. Water coming in our windows right now, including velux's, never had this before! Pretty darn close to Ophelia scare factor.

smellyoldboot

Geuze wrote: »

Is it moving Cork - LK - Clare - GY?

Or Cork/Waterford - Tipp - KK - midlands?

Cork, Limerick, and then darting off into the abyss(may also be referred to by some people as the Midlands).

pad199207

Has really cranked up in Kildare now

AdamB

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Can you stay in your location? I would be wary of trees and live cables.

Not really an option. I'm just going to take it really slow.

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater

smellyoldboot wrote: »

Cork, Limerick, and then darting off into the abyss(may also be referred to by some people as the Midlands).

Booo!

Lazy journalism.

gogo

Laois taking a battering right now, windows are rattling...

sumtings

Shannon reported a 113km gust in the last hour, would at least tally with what was seen in Limerick

salamander27

Woke up to some serious gusts here just outside Gort. It's giving the slates a good old rattle!

Rikand

The neightbours are frantically securing everything in their garden... because they obviously got no notice this was coming