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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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cameramonkey

BrownFinger wrote: »

RIP

RIPE

spookwoman

syngindub wrote: »

me tomato plants are all over me garden

I'm sure you will be able to ketchup to them

sunbabe08

strong enough winds still here on the north side of cork city.

smellyoldboot

May go and water the flowers in the morning.

rino87

Sustained heavy gusts for last 10-15 mins near Blarney. Still have power strangely enough seeing as our sub station is whitechurch which is a lot more exposed than here.

Sacrolyte

DrGreenThumb82 wrote: »

Power gone in Ardnacrusha. Wind crazy.

Isn’t that ironic

Graces7

In the nearly two hours it has taken to catch up with posts.... it has gone from totally quiet to squally and intermittent rain battering the windows.

Nothing exceptional or sustained.

Quiet again..

bananaskin

Seen this crazy lights, only thing I can think of is the substation nearby cratloe

lisasimpson

I dont think any company BCP plans had accounted for a pandemic and a storm at the same. Going to be some crack in the morning with people ringing in ive no power when trying to work from home

Denny61

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

On this note I'm actually going to bed now, still very strong gusts here in West cork but definitely died down but the coastal aspect is keeping the winds up I think. (EDIT: Just as I say that the gusts pick up again and are howling.. at least this is making up for missing the thunderstorms last week!)

Rain has stopped and looks to have moved northwards. Best of luck to those up the country overnight!

Very strange thing to say...Best of luck?? Could you not say .stay safe and trouble free night!!!!

Humberto Salazar

syngindub wrote: »

me tomato plants are all over me garden

Load of bolognese

DrGreenThumb82

Sacrolyte wrote: »

Isn’t that ironic

Never did is any good. Power outages galore over the years.

krissovo

syngindub wrote: »

earth calling cork

Its like a disaster zone in North Cork, just got the kids back to bed after they woke up at the peak of the wind. Hit our house like a hammer for a good 45 minutes, kids were screaming and crying.

My roof has a bit of damage, water is pissing in and running down the wall. In my road I can see 4 or 5 trees down across the road and power / phone lines. Power has gone clearly, power banks and tethered phone keeping us online but Vodaphone connection keeps breaking up.

I would love to sheet my roof to stop the water but still strong gusts.

syngindub

syngindub wrote: »

me tomato plants are all over me garden

brought them indoors, feck that ****

un5byh7sqpd2x0

FutureGuy wrote: »

Saw a large flash out towards Caherdavin, Limerick so I’d say power out there.

Moylish is out, 1500 premises gone

ellieh1

Horrific night here in Limerick

josip

Hawthorn Tree wrote: »

5 times taller than the Californian redwoods. Ye don't mess about in Cork!

Lucky that RyanAir plane didn't hit it earlier

pnpweirdo

krissovo wrote: »

Its like a disaster zone in North Cork, just got the kids back to bed after they woke up at the peak of the wind. Hit our house like a hammer for a good 45 minutes, kids were screaming and crying.

My roof has a bit of damage, water is pissing in and running down the wall. In my road I can see 4 or 5 trees down across the road and power / phone lines. Power has gone clearly, power banks and tethered phone keeping us online but Vodaphone connection keeps breaking up.

I would love to sheet my roof to stop the water but still strong gusts.

Where abouts north cork. I can imagine limerick city is the same

TTLF

must be scary for those in cork, hoping my Uncle and his family in Cobh are okay, any updates from anyone in Cobh? was it very bad there?

Comhrá

I'm in Caherdavin and the power is still on.

pad199207

A period of stronger winds likely pushing into the greater Dublin area now as the hook pushes northwards.

M.T. Cranium

Graces7 wrote: »

In the nearly two hours it has taken to catch up with posts.... it has gone from totally quiet to squally and intermittent rain battering the windows.

Nothing exceptional or sustained.

Quiet again..

I think you can expect a quiet night in general, winds likely to remain light northeast or variable in that area, then will pick up to moderate southwest by daybreak, nothing too strong at any point as Ellen weakens and moves past Mayo into the North Atlantic. Rain also won't be too fierce there, some squally showers could develop towards morning.

You may actually get a more impactful period of weather late Thursday or on Friday.

spookwoman

Fault
Kilmacthomas, waterford
Estimated time for power to be restored 20/08/2020 16:00

c.p.w.g.w

Gatlin Refined Medicine wrote: »

Moylish is out, 1500 premises gone

Next to LIT, still got power

CiarraiAbu2

When should the worst be over in North Kerry

CBear1993

krissovo wrote: »

Its like a disaster zone in North Cork, just got the kids back to bed after they woke up at the peak of the wind. Hit our house like a hammer for a good 45 minutes, kids were screaming and crying.

My roof has a bit of damage, water is pissing in and running down the wall. In my road I can see 4 or 5 trees down across the road and power / phone lines. Power has gone clearly, power banks and tethered phone keeping us online but Vodaphone connection keeps breaking up.

I would love to sheet my roof to stop the water but still strong gusts.

Mustn’t be too bad all the same when you’ve time to post on boards.

sumtings

Was very rainy for a good period of time in Dooradoyle, Limerick city. It's just passed to the north east and things have calmed down a bit, it was proper weather. I can see a band further down near the Limerick Cork border, I hope it misses us.

Larbre34

pad199207 wrote: »

A period of stronger winds likely pushing into the greater Dublin area now as the hook pushes northwards.

Noticeable alright here between Leixlip and Clonsilla.

Irish Wolf

Seems to have blown over north LK city, still raining, mild gusts.

Is a second wave on the way :pac:

Broken Strings

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I think you can expect a quiet night in general, winds likely to remain light northeast or variable in that area, then will pick up to moderate southwest by daybreak, nothing too strong at any point as Ellen weakens and moves past Mayo into the North Atlantic. Rain also won't be too fierce there, some squally showers could develop towards morning.

You may actually get a more impactful period of weather late Thursday or on Friday.

Are we likely to have another stormy night like this tomorrow or Friday?