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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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TTLF

is itr supposed to track up the east coast/midlands and get worse through the night orrr, whats the situation?

pnpweirdo

Horrendous in limerick city now. Wind, rain power out. End of the world ****

smellyoldboot

FutureGuy wrote: »

Limerick is nuts.

You don't really need the rest of that text in fairness.

FutureGuy

Saw a large flash out towards Caherdavin, Limerick so I’d say power out there.

M.T. Cranium

East coast impacts will likely continue rather moderate, peak gusts around Dublin could reach 90-100 km/hr but some areas are protected from southwest winds which will eventually reach there as well. Rain also rather moderate, heaviest from Ellen is near track and to the west of the track (which is looking like Clare-Galway-east Mayo).

Larbre34

TTLF wrote: »

is itr supposed to track up the east coast/midlands and get worse through the night orrr, whats the situation?

The winds will be less overland but the rain wrapped around the low could give significant rain anywhere, especially over Mountains.

Euphoriasean

FutureGuy wrote: »

Limerick is nuts. The rain was falling so heavily I thought we had leak in house. First big storm as a homeowner.

Its the worst ive seen in Limerick in quite a while. Even the last couple of red warnings were mild compared to this.

syngindub

earth calling cork

angeldaisy

Euphoriasean wrote: »

Its the worst ive seen in Limerick in quite a while. Even the last couple of red warnings were mild compared to this.

I'd agree, this one is definitely scarier than others we've had. wind has dropped a little here, but rain is still very heavy.

Limpy

Can there be anything said for another staycation.

Irish Wolf

FutureGuy wrote: »

Saw a large flash out towards Caherdavin, Limerick so I’d say power out there.

Not yet kid.

[Deleted User]

An Ri rua wrote: »

You're right, I'm left, shed goooone..

You're right, I'm left, all aloooone,

Some songs just make you shed tears..

I bet your shed was a 'she' too

Ah yeah, a bottle of whiskey by the fire in the storm. I'm understand you buddy.

Humberto Salazar

Pressure got to 977.7 North Offaly. Seems to be on the rise now, it's blowy but not exceptional.

John O.Groats

ChikiChiki wrote: »

If there's one thing Met Éireann can forcast accurately with these storms, there's always a fecking trampoline gone rogue.

Yeah. I mean how hard can it be to properly secure these things? It`s not as if there weren`t adequate warnings.

smellyoldboot

Limpy wrote: »

Can there be anything said for another staycation.

A grand soft evenin.

Parabellum9

Still mental in Limerick, it’s like trying to go asleep in a ****in car wash

Xenji

Starting to pick up in Castlebar, first moderate gusts are occurring after a very calm and wet evening.

cameramonkey

Hawthorn Tree wrote: »

5 times taller than the Californian redwoods. Ye don't mess about in Cork!

The real capital of tall trees.

syngindub

me tomato plants are all over me garden

limericklad87

Euphoriasean wrote: »

Its the worst ive seen in Limerick in quite a while. Even the last couple of red warnings were mild compared to this.

Seconded

Darth Melkor

East Clare here. 15 minutes ago it was really calm. Has picked up massively in the last 5 minutes. Can't imagine the power lasting for long.

[Deleted User]

syngindub wrote: »

me tomato plants are all over me garden

RIP

pnpweirdo

The wind was so bad the rain was turned into a mist/fog

[Deleted User]

pnpweirdo wrote: »

End of the world ****

Cats and dogs living together

CptMackey

Seems to have calmed down here west of cork city. Went a good bit quieter around 1215, still have power sofar

DrGreenThumb82

Power gone in Ardnacrusha. Wind crazy.

pnpweirdo

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Cats and dogs living together

Ive no time for cats

[Deleted User]

John O.Groats wrote: »

Yeah. I mean how hard can it be to properly secure these things? It`s not as if there weren`t adequate warnings.

The rogue trampoline is probably owned by a family who have gone to kerry with a tent.

Comhrá

Up there with Darwin I'd say. Far worse than any of last winter's storms. The rainfall this past hour was something else to behold.

SleetAndSnow

On this note I'm actually going to bed now, still very strong gusts here in West cork but definitely died down but the coastal aspect is keeping the winds up I think. (EDIT: Just as I say that the gusts pick up again and are howling.. at least this is making up for missing the thunderstorms last week!)

Rain has stopped and looks to have moved northwards. Best of luck to those up the country overnight!