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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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BorneTobyWilde

https://twitter.com/CorkSafetyAlert/status/1296218988159082500

md323

Winds really picking up here just know, 5km east of Limerick city

signostic

Which motorway will have a trampoline on it tonight?

Storm 10

Gone very windy all of a sudden in Galway now

An Ri rua

obi604 wrote: »

You’d be a long time looking for a JAR of milk though.

I'm picturing hard cases in Waterford drinking milk from jars...Kentucky Justified style...

smellyoldboot

On a different note.: When we get our "go" at naming storm systems., should we not make sure we go full balls out Irish with the names. Ellen is very generic/American sounding. Eimear or Eileen or similar would be far better no?

Parabellum9

Dooradoyle Limerick - she has arrived out of nowhere!

blobbyblob

spookwoman wrote: »

https://twitter.com/CorkSafetyAlert/status/1296219814499844097?s=20

Why is it going to Whitechurch?

lab man

Bad enough now in sw clare alot of rain with big gusts

Spudmonkey

Gotten mad wild here in Limerick all of a sudden!

spookwoman

blobbyblob wrote: »

Why is it going to Whitechurch?

Maybe it got tired of Blackpool

[Deleted User]

Unreal rain here in Cork city at the moment, lovely to listen to from the leaba, wish it wasn't a work night.

An Ri rua

smellyoldboot wrote: »

On a different note.: When we get our "go" at naming storm systems., should we not make sure we go full balls out Irish with the names. Ellen is very generic/American sounding. Eimear or Eileen or similar would be far better no?

Storm Dána - a mischievous little minx that steals your roof and trampoline.

Storm Uafásach - Jaysus it even sounds rough.

md323

Gone crazy all of a shot here in Limerick

spookwoman

An Ri rua wrote: »

Storm Dána - a mischievous little minx that steals your roof and trampoline.

And damages tyres

445279.ie

Brycen Broad Wallflower wrote: »

Just a light wind here in Limerick city at the moment. But looking at the rain radar we're in for a massive downpour..

And it has arrived!! Pelting down

smellyoldboot

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Unreal rain here in Cork city at the moment, lovely to listen to from the leaba, wish it wasn't a work night.

Can't even make like your name anymore. WFH= On the clock forever. Haha

ACitizenErased

What is happening in Limerick rn is what happened to us in Cork City earlier, literally came out of nowhere

angeldaisy

Just 10km out of Limerick City and it started here about 15 mins ago. Very strong winds and rain.

maebee

In Limerick City/Clare border. Whipping up now. Mad wind and sounds like hailstones on aluminium garage. Wild.

smellyoldboot

An Ri rua wrote: »

I'm picturing hard cases in Waterford drinking milk from jars...Kentucky Justified style...

lol. Lingo that slipped into my lexicon subconsciously from another place, another time.

902l45irqnwbah

West limerick here and it came out of nowhere about half hour ago. Sounds crazy out there.

redsteveireland

Storm 10 wrote: »

Gone very windy all of a sudden in Galway now

Roof vents are vibrating quite annoyingly here in Galway, different feel to it due to the wind direction.

spookwoman

https://twitter.com/eamonnjwalshh/status/1296215730493493254?s=20

M.T. Cranium

From radar and satellite, centre appears to be near Lough Derg and moving slightly west of due north, will be close to Athenry by 0200h and of interest to Oneiric3, near Tuam perhaps by 0300h and then in northeast Mayo by 0400h.

Rather cool air managed to rotate around the centre, noticed 12 C at Cork last obs.

Moorepark went off-line presumably due to power failures in the area, will be interesting to see what its gust max is reported to be eventually (if they don't lose that data). (edit they are back on line at midnight, gusts to 94 km/hr, fairly strong for that location).

Probably verified red wind warning in eastern Cork and some parts of west Waterford from reports, not sure if any other examples unless in very exposed hilly locations perhaps.

ACitizenErased

https://twitter.com/CorkSafetyAlert/status/1296222199892901890?s=20

SleetAndSnow

Last question, is there a reason why fastnets gusts are steadily increasing? Is there another system moving up? There was so many charts i've gotten confused

https://twitter.com/FastnetLHouse/status/1296222284873695233?s=20

Larbre34

Sudden increase in mean winds in Dublin 15 last few minutes.

Denny61

Its practically calm here now in thurles..lovely out and air is humid ..im having a coffee out in patio...radio one on.good music ..

froog

Trees down all over cork roads. Hope no one needs emergency services