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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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signostic

Which motorway will have a trampoline on it tonight?

md323

Winds really picking up here just know, 5km east of Limerick city

BorneTobyWilde

https://twitter.com/CorkSafetyAlert/status/1296218988159082500

Sugarbowl

I’d say there are lots more without power than map is showing.

Power gone here a half hour but nothing on the map.

Still a bad night here off the west coast from the fastnet. Gusty, and rain pelting off window.

auspicious

spookwoman wrote: »

https://twitter.com/CorkSafetyAlert/status/1296218988159082500?s=20

Really shouldn't be playing with Radio controlled cars in this weather.

SleetAndSnow

Just went outside to assess if the house was ok in west cork, its mental this is now the strongest winds I have experienced down here. Sand blowing into my eyes and face in general, being blown around by the actual storm itself. Its just mental but an experience at the same time and we are easily gusting above 120km/h, more to 130km/h id say but again cant measure and could easily be lower!

Probably going to be my last post because don't want to spam the thread anymore but really hope everybody is being safe.

BorneTobyWilde

https://twitter.com/Padraig_WMC/status/1296213437131915265

An Ri rua

spookwoman wrote: »

https://twitter.com/CorkSafetyAlert/status/1296219814499844097?s=20

The trampoline is heading from Blackpool to Whitechurch? Christ on a bike. I will pray for Cork.

smellyoldboot

anacc wrote: »

And sure there were Waterford folk complaining earlier that Met Éireann care more about Cork than Waterford because ye didn’t get a red warning.

Nobody pays much attention to us so we'll take what we can get in fairness. lol

sunbabe08

no lightning for us here in cork city then? damn you met eireann.

JackieChang

Winds picking up now.

marno21

3300 in Carrigaline, 2500 in Ringaskiddy, 1600 in Aghada, 2000 in Cloyne, 4400 in Youghal, 4500 in Midleton, 1100 in Carrigtwohil, 300 in Little Island, 2500 in Glanmire, 1800 in Blackpool, 400 in Bishopstown, 2500 in Douglas/Rochestown, 1500 in Macroom, 2700 near Castlelyons, 2700 in Fermoy, 1400 in Mitchelstown, 1000 in Mallow, 500 in Buttevant, 500 in Charleville. Busy night for the ESB in Cork.

But only 277 near Skibbereen, West Cork has escaped bar that. Not a single outage in Kerry either.

anacc

smellyoldboot wrote: »

Waterford City. Its blustery but that's about it. Put it this way, (ignoring the time of night) if you needed a jar of milk it wouldn't bother you strolling to the shop in it.

And sure there were Waterford folk complaining earlier that Met Éireann care more about Cork than Waterford because ye didn’t get a red warning.

An Ri rua

Pherekydes wrote: »

A tree is over 500m tall? :eek:

A Ryanair pilot reported seeing the top of it as he was holding at 8000ft, so I'd say he was just playing it down, like most Cork people.

[Deleted User]

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I didn't fly a lot in my earlier days but even so I managed to get on one flight that aborted a landing at 250' (at Edmonton) and "went around" due to severe storms and another one that landed anyway in a rather strong windshift (at London ON). That was a relatively small plane so it was quite dramatic. However neither of those were as scary as any given float-plane flight take off or landing in normal weather.

Sounds like they timed the Cork landing to hit the eye of the storm.

Flew into Vancouver around 2012 in a huge thunderstorm. When the pilot looks pissed off you know someone messed up. I would totally agree on the Float Planes. Took one to Victoria, almost bought a ferry ticket for the return.

Not too windy in Dublin from what I can tell, but the rain has been relentless pretty much all day. Its been a long time since I've heard the rain beating off the windows like this.

OhToBeByTheSea

grebtol2 wrote: »

A spot of wind. What are you on.

That's all just a conspiracy, met eireann, rte and the government are in on this together. They made Storm Ellen in a lab and released her into the atmosphere to distract from covid. Duh!

anacc

Tazio wrote: »

Same here near Riverstick.. stormy - but not like earlier.

I’m only down the road from ya sure!

spookwoman

https://twitter.com/CorkSafetyAlert/status/1296219814499844097?s=20

obi604

smellyoldboot wrote: »

Waterford City. Its blustery but that's about it. Put it this way, (ignoring the time of night) if you needed a jar of milk it wouldn't bother you strolling to the shop in it.

You’d be a long time looking for a JAR of milk though.

deisedevil

smellyoldboot wrote: »

Waterford City. Its blustery but that's about it. Put it this way, (ignoring the time of night) if you needed a jar of milk it wouldn't bother you strolling to the shop in it.

Thats mad. Piles of damage in Dungarvan and surrounding area.

dzsfah2xoynme9

Just a light wind here in Limerick city at the moment. But looking at the rain radar we're in for a massive downpour..

ACitizenErased

Gusting mad now again in Rochestown

padohaodha

Limerick/cork border..holy jesus she has arrived.Mad gusts.Trees under big pressure

spookwoman

https://twitter.com/CorkSafetyAlert/status/1296218988159082500?s=20

https://twitter.com/WaterfordCounci/status/1296218582121160714?s=20

Tauriel

Wind is picking up again around Carrigaline.

smellyoldboot

John O.Groats wrote: »

Where are you?

Waterford City. Its blustery but that's about it. Put it this way, (ignoring the time of night) if you needed a jar of milk it wouldn't bother you strolling to the shop in it.

Dwarf.Shortage

grebtol2 wrote: »

A spot of wind. What are you on.

The wind up, they are on the wind up.

Do not feed.

Tazio

anacc wrote: »

Picked up here again near Kinsale. Third wave I guess. Not as bad as the second wave though.

Same here near Riverstick.. stormy - but not like earlier.

spookwoman

M.T. Cranium

munsterlegend wrote: »

Flight update from earlier on in Cork.

A lot of vomiting and screaming on the plane that landed. Source:Twitter

I didn't fly a lot in my earlier days but even so I managed to get on one flight that aborted a landing at 250' (at Edmonton) and "went around" due to severe storms and another one that landed anyway in a rather strong windshift (at London ON). That was a relatively small plane so it was quite dramatic. However neither of those were as scary as any given float-plane flight take off or landing in normal weather.

Sounds like they timed the Cork landing to hit the eye of the storm.