nav[aria-label="Primary Navigation"] { padding: 0; & ul { list-style: none; width: 100%; display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: start; align-items: start; gap: 30px; padding: 0; & li { margin: 0; } & ul li { list-style: none; } } }

Child Item

Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

Find more posts tagged with

Quick Links

Comments

spookwoman

Looks like the starting up again here in waterford

Pherekydes

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Doesn't look like it hit any building anyway, over 500m tall so hopefully not!

A tree is over 500m tall? :eek:

spookwoman

https://twitter.com/WaterfordCounci/status/1296216065828102144?s=20

thomil

Things have calmed down a bit here in Ballincollig, but there are still some rather wild gusts in there. Pressure is climbing again, now at 974.8mb.

jackrussel

Shadylou wrote: »

Bit of wind, bit of rain on northside cork, hardly a red weather warning

If you say it again, someone might bother listening to yer “opinion”

munsterlegend

Well red warning coming to an end in Cork. I presume it’s making its journey north. Stay safe people.

auspicious

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Doesn't look like it hit any building anyway, over 500m tall so hopefully not!

500m tall.
Call that a tree?
pff..

deisedevil

Calming down a bit in Dungarvan now at the minute.

smellyoldboot

Meh. It was a bit windy. Spose yould say say Ellen lived up to her name. All mouth and no trousers.

ceekay74

Gone quiet enough now here in Killarney. Was quite windy and wet the last hour though. Nothing like some of the other posters are describing.

Storm 10

Lovely starry night in Galway just a bit breezy very mild

OhToBeByTheSea

spookwoman wrote: »

https://twitter.com/WaterfordCounci/status/1296216065828102144?s=20

Thanks for posting these, I'm not on Twitter. Hopefully people will check any information available on their route in the morning and be extra vigilant if driving anywhere.

Aglomerado

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

https://twitter.com/EoinBearla/status/1296213041109970945?s=20

Awh no! Loved that tree for some reason. Planted in 1845, downed today.

Me too, sad to see it go. Passed it every day for years and as recently as last Friday.
Still have power here but every now and again there are interruptions and things are bleeping.
Some friends are down in union hall at the moment :eek:

SleetAndSnow

https://twitter.com/FastnetLHouse/status/1296212588703997953?s=20

Fastnet gusts increasing? Easily gusting at least 100km/h here still if not more. Water flying out of the shoots and trees are pretty much at breaking point. Wish i could measure the speed because it is difficult to pass on what its like when its dying out around the rest of the county!

Gaoth Laidir

I think the IWC...I mean ECM went a little crazy on this one. Still early, but it is possible that Ellen Degenerates into something more along the lines of the ICON...

1f2359b510bceecc2722bccc0b19c7a0c2-ellen.rsquare.w330.jpg

1f2359b510bceecc2722bccc0b19c7a0c2-ellen.rsquare.w330.jpg

Neddyusa

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Doesn't look like it hit any building anyway, over 500m tall so hopefully not!

Winds picking up again in west cork as per the Union Hall post above so moving eastwards it seems. Mental, wasn't expecting this here.Not sure if its just the fact of being right next to the coast or what but having fun trying to open my velux windows and failing. Its like a game now, me vs ellen

What???:eek:

sdanseo

Wind starting to creep back up now at Kinsale.
(times UTC, 1hr behind local)

munsterlegend

Neddyusa wrote: »

What???:eek:

It was a typo. She meant 5000m.

spookwoman

https://twitter.com/iWeatherNews/status/1296217309527388165?s=20

spookwoman

https://twitter.com/wlrfm/status/1296217378771042309?s=20

SleetAndSnow

munsterlegend wrote: »

It was a typo. She meant 5000m.

She? :eek::pac: Better take a look at myself

OhToBeByTheSea

Really picking up in Dunmore East now, really strong gusts rattling the windows, lots of rain belting down.

Meteorite58

SouthWesterly wrote: »

971 here as well. Wind up to 40 kmh
4 4mm rain in last 40 minutes

20mm here this evening, gusting to 50 km/h

Bar 974.0 hPa Falling Rapidly

munsterlegend

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

She? :eek::pac: Better take a look at myself

Ok he/she/it!

smellyoldboot

jackrussel wrote: »

If you say it again, someone might bother listening to yer “opinion”

They're right though tbf. A spot of wind. Jaysus there were some sites going on as if we were getting Hurricane Katrina or similar. Had more worrying farts.

WoolyJumper

Electricity gone near Glanmire. It got very wild out of no where but it seems to have calmed down. I'm guessing the worst is over for in and around Cork city?

Hurrache

smellyoldboot wrote: »

lHad more worrying carts.

Because of the wobbly wheels?

spookwoman

Blitzortung registering strikes near charleville roughly in the red blob of rain

irishfeen

Wind has started to ease here in North Cork but the rain is savage, it it continues all night there will be lots of impassable roads with flooding.

anacc

Picked up here again near Kinsale. Third wave I guess. Not as bad as the second wave though.