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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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tupenny

Wild Field 1831 wrote: »

Oh I love low humming, medium humming, all humming..

I once knew a woman, but then she died.

Sure once you know where to get one of the finest boilers in the world, you've made it

chavezychavez

tupenny wrote: »

Sure once you know where to get one of the finest boilers in the world, you've made it

17 that's another number....

SleetAndSnow

https://twitter.com/EoinBearla/status/1296213041109970945?s=20

Awh no! Loved that tree for some reason. Planted in 1845, downed today.

Popoutman

The watch and phone measurements of barometric pressure both say 964 here in Castletroy Limerick.
Darwin bottomed out at 959 iirc on the watch.
(Obviously not calibrated, but close enough for indicative stuff)

Actual wind is gusty but not epic (yet), can hear some gusts coming.

Awaaf

Larbre34 wrote: »

Strange, the DL Harbour weather station is giving Force 7 gusting Force 10 from the SE, perhaps you are sheltered from that direction.

Yes I am more exactly in Deansgrange just under a ridge from the DL Harbour side of things. In the national scheme of things that didn't seem so important when I posted but locally it makes a massive difference.

squarecircles

coming up to 3 hours into the warning here,calm night,some light rain, am done for the nite.

stay safe everyone,

Super-Rush

chavezychavez wrote: »

17 that's another number....

We ran the gas off the electricity and the electricity off the gas.

igCorcaigh

https://twitter.com/conredman/status/1296210952581521409?s=19

Hawthorn Tree

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Awh no! Loved that tree for some reason. Planted in 1845, downed today.

Great video but those winds looks savage. RIP Monkey Puzzle.

pad199207

Strongest winds of the evening here so far in Kildare

HeyV

https://twitter.com/padraig_wmc/status/1296213437131915265?s=21

spookwoman

https://twitter.com/Tipperaryphotos/status/1296211740548567041?s=20

Wild Field 1831

tupenny wrote: »

Sure once you know where to get one of the finest boilers in the world, you've made it

The Canadians they make great boilers. Great to put on on a night like this to make a cup of tea. Or coffee. Indeed any beverage or some quick stir about porridge..

rino87

tupenny wrote: »

Sure once you know where to get one of the finest boilers in the world, you've made it

Would you include Canada in that??

On topic... Relatively quiet near Blarney last 20 minutes. Mostly rain.

Hawthorn Tree

This looks so like Ophelia. Cork taking a bullet for Eire.

ninebeanrows

Surprisingly windy in coastal Dublin at minute

Sonics2k

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

https://twitter.com/EoinBearla/status/1296213041109970945?s=20

Awh no! Loved that tree for some reason. Planted in 1845, downed today.

Bloody hell! Where did it land?

mossie

Still have power here but internet is down so maybe power is out at the other end.

ACitizenErased

Sonics2k wrote: »

Bloody hell! Where did it land?

Fairly open area so it should've landed well clear of anything

Shadylou

Bit of wind, bit of rain on northside cork, hardly a red weather warning

SleetAndSnow

Sonics2k wrote: »

Bloody hell! Where did it land?

Doesn't look like it hit any building anyway, over 500m tall so hopefully not!

Winds picking up again in west cork as per the Union Hall post above so moving eastwards it seems. Mental, wasn't expecting this here.Not sure if its just the fact of being right next to the coast or what but having fun trying to open my velux windows and failing. Its like a game now, me vs ellen

appledrop

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Surprisingly windy in coastal Dublin at minute

Yep extrenely windy here in North County Dublin.

[Deleted User]

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Doesn't look like it hit any building anyway, over 500m tall so hopefully not!

Winds picking up again in west cork as per the Union Hall post above so moving eastwards it seems. Mental, wasn't expecting this here.Not sure if its just the fact of being right next to the coast or what but having fun trying to open my velux windows and failing. Its like a game now, me vs ellen

500m?? :pac::pac:

tupenny

RINO87 wrote: »

Would you include Canada in that??

On topic... Relatively quiet near Blarney last 20 minutes. Mostly rain.

Oh yes, including Canada in that!!

Just your average rainy / windy night in Kildare. So far anyway

ACitizenErased

Shadylou wrote: »

Bit of wind, bit of rain on northside cork, hardly a red weather warning

I thought my house was going to be lifted clean off the foundations earlier.

Wild Field 1831

Hawthorn Tree wrote: »

This looks so like Ophelia. Cork taking a bullet for Eire.

Cork for wind and rain but the infamous snow shield kicks in during winter.

[Deleted User]

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Heavy rain earlier here in Tralee, more moderate now, the AWS is blocked I reckon , must take a look at the manual gauge soon

974.1 hPa Falling Rapidly

Netweather

971 here as well. Wind up to 40 kmh
4 4mm rain in last 40 minutes

Hawthorn Tree

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Doesn't look like it hit any building anyway, over 500m tall so hopefully not!

5 times taller than the Californian redwoods. Ye don't mess about in Cork!

leahyl

Wasn’t too bad on the Northside of cork city except for that brief 10/15 minutes so of crazy gusts. Has calmed down now again

SleetAndSnow

mcburns07 wrote: »

500m?? :pac::pac:

whoops, I blame the storm!

50m.. i think..