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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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the hedgeman

Wind picking up here in n.kerry,so it's arrived......

aisling86

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10159102409478949&id=670643948

Lucylou35

Wine Goddess wrote: »

Winds still coming from the east here in Firhouse Dublin 24, so the really strong ones from the SW not yet arrived...... raining a bit but still quite warm......

I'm only down the road from you in Oldbawn. I can hear the wind down the chimney occasionally. Nothing much yet. Mountins usually shelter us from n the good stuff!

Hawthorn Tree

Roches Point got a 143 km/h gust in the 23:00 observations. Red level.

Nowhere else came close! Cork Airport only got a Yellow level 107 km/h gust.

No other station recorded a gust above 100 km/h

Valentia getting a lot of rain in the past 3 hours.

Samsgirl

Power gone in Aherlow. Very strong gusts too. House rattling.

Awaaf

Dry and quiet now in Dun Laoghaire.

[Deleted User]

Hawthorn Tree wrote: »

Roches Point got a 143 km/h gust in the 23:00 observations. Red level.

Nowhere else came close! Cork Airport only got a Yellow level 107 km/h gust.

No other station recorded a gust above 100 km/h

Valentia getting a lot of rain in the past 3 hours.

What's your point?

munsterlegend

Flight update from earlier on in Cork.

A lot of vomiting and screaming on the plane that landed. Source:Twitter

[Deleted User]

Little snowy old me wrote: »

Wind always sounds louder at night. No station on land is reporting sustained yellow level winds.

The little ones are heartbroken they didn't get their snow tonight.

Meteorite58

tupenny

Wild Field 1831 wrote: »

Ah tis yourself

What's your favourite humming noise?

Larbre34

munsterlegend wrote: »

Flight update from earlier on in Cork.

A lot of vomiting and screaming on the plane that landed. Source:Twitter

Ryanair per chance?

Wild Field 1831

Hawthorn Tree wrote: »

Roches Point got a 143 km/h gust in the 23:00 observations. Red level.

Nowhere else came close! Cork Airport only got a Yellow level 107 km/h gust.

No other station recorded a gust above 100 km/h

Valentia getting a lot of rain in the past 3 hours.

And the greatly qualified one, who brings weather to the common man, would have stations across the south of the country gusting 150-180km now.

He won't have egg on his face tomorrow, it'll be a large omlette.

munsterlegend

Larbre34 wrote: »

Ryanair per chance?

That’s the one.

An Ri rua

Sonics2k wrote: »

I strongly suspect I won't have a shed in the morning, so if anyone around the Carrigaline area see's it, do let me know yeah.

You're right, I'm left, shed goooone..

You're right, I'm left, all aloooone,

Some songs just make you shed tears..

I bet your shed was a 'she' too

Oneiric 3

munsterlegend wrote: »

Flight update from earlier on in Cork.

A lot of vomiting and screaming on the plane that landed. Source:Twitter

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UbuZxP7UrW4

Wild Field 1831

tupenny wrote: »

What's your favourite humming noise?

Oh I love low humming, medium humming, all humming..

I once knew a woman, but then she died.

Santy2015

How the power is still on here I don’t know!

JanuarySnowstor

Power gone all over Cork
I'd say this will take quite a while to sort tomorrow

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Power gone all over Cork
I'd say this will take quite a while to sort tomorrow

East Cork anyway and parts of the city.

Shadylou

Not too bad high northside cork city, looks to be dying down now. Bit of a non event

munsterlegend

Santy2015 wrote: »

How the power is still on here I don’t know!

Same here near Mallow. I think Ellen will give up now.

spookwoman

Seems to have quietened down enough here for the hedgehogs to venture out into the open

anacc

The worst of it seems to have passed here near Kinsale now unless there’s a third wave. Just a regular windy and rainy night now.

SleetAndSnow

Definitely one of the strongest wind events i've heard in west cork, picked up again in the last 5 minutes. Not a clue how we have power, usually lose it very quickly but alas, not going to complain as long as I have some wifi!

Larbre34

Awaaf wrote: »

Dry and quiet now in Dun Laoghaire.

Strange, the DL Harbour weather station is giving Force 7 gusting Force 10 from the SE, perhaps you are sheltered from that direction.

no.8

JanuarySnowstor wrote:

Power gone all over Cork I'd say this will take quite a while to sort tomorrow

You must live in a bunker so

tbayers

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Power gone all over Cork
I'd say this will take quite a while to sort tomorrow

Winds over the next few days, whilst not at current level will remain gale to strong gale force so weather won't be ideal for ESB crews. Next problem is storm surge associated to another low pressure Friday morning peaking with spring tides...

alentejo

Good F**K - Mental wind and rain in Union Hall last ten mins

[Deleted User]

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Power gone all over Cork
I'd say this will take quite a while to sort tomorrow

Looking out the window in Mallow a moment ago. Saw blue flash and power went out instantly. Sigh.