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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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Hawthorn Tree

Trees in full leaf and the soil/ground is relatively damp. Plenty will topple tonight.

Little snowy old me

dexter647 wrote: »

Christ this already sounds a lot worse than a yellow warning here in south Laois...Surely a few more counties should be orange..:eek:

Wind always sounds louder at night. No station on land is reporting sustained yellow level winds.

Oneiric 3

Where the UK Met have the center of the low at 1am tonight:

Strongest of the winds should only last a couple of hours as the low pushes rapidly north.

spookwoman

https://twitter.com/WaterfordCounci/status/1296205998659641348?s=20

Goldstein

Sonics2k wrote: »

I strongly suspect I won't have a shed in the morning, so if anyone around the Carrigaline area see's it, do let me know yeah.

I spent much of Ophelia watching my shed bow and deform in the face of those winds. This is very windy alright but it's still a world apart from those sustained intense winds (so far). Gusts seem to have dropped a little in peak intensity now compared to the previous 45 mins. I've not been tempted to start shedwatch yet.

munsterlegend

irishfeen wrote: »

Wind and rain after really picking up last 15 min.

Don’t know how the power is lasting.

pnpweirdo

Been calm in limerick city until now. Not a drop of rain yet.

Santy2015

Spoke too soon. Heavy rain and strong gusts kanturk

spookwoman

munsterlegend wrote: »

Don’t know how the power is lasting.

Just made sure candles etc all ready

anacc

Some reports here of lightning but none of apps I use to track lightning are showing anything. Anybody know why that is?

Burts Bee

Holy moly. North Cork, near Mallow, just gone MENTAL!

ChikiChiki

Looks to be a very dangerous event. Stay safe folks.

willier

Power gone here in Borrisoleigh, Co. Tipp.
Gusts are really starting to pick up.

padohaodha

Limerick /Cork border...nothing unusual happening here.Dry and a bit of a breeze but harmless.So far.

morgana

Yup just now - heavy rain and wind just started up near Mallow

revelman

Goldstein wrote: »

I spent much of Ophelia watching my shed bow and deform in the face of those winds. This is very windy alright but it's still a world apart from those sustained intense winds (so far). Gusts seem to have dropped a little in peak intensity now compared to the previous 45 mins. I've not been tempted to start shedwatch yet.

I’d agree that this is not at Ophelia level but some of the gusts are still quite extreme. Can cause damage nonetheless, as evidenced by the number of houses without power now.

Bsal

(Roches Point) PsMETAR ROCH 192200Z AUTO 21046G77KT //// // FEW006/// SCT009/// BKN023/// 14/// 0976 MSL=

Wine Goddess

Winds still coming from the east here in Firhouse Dublin 24, so the really strong ones from the SW not yet arrived...... raining a bit but still quite warm......

mossie

Very heavy rain now and the wind is picking up again. North Cork near Newmarket

Shakey_jake

Picking up in d13 now

[Deleted User]

143km/h gust recorded at Roches Point

ChikiChiki

Picking up in D3

ACitizenErased

The rain is battering down in rochestown now

Oscar Bravo

11pm

Roaches point gusting 77 knots
Cork airport 58 knots
Sherkin 53 knots

Covid19

TheRiverman wrote: »

More clusters than coronavirus.

No, No, that's not true..

Banana Republic.

revelman wrote: »

I’d agree that this is not at Ophelia level but some of the gusts are still quite extreme. Can cause damage nonetheless, as evidenced by the number of houses without power now.

The damage to trees and structures from Ophelia can cater plenty of incidents tonight, tree down across the road after blown down in Kilmeaden, Waterford. Wind is very whippy is the best way to explain it in Waterford City.

Gaoth Laidir

Gust 77 knots at Roches Point at 2300

PsMETAR ROCH 192200Z AUTO 21046G77KT //// // FEW006/// SCT009/// BKN023/// 14/// 0976 MSL=

BionicRasher

Wind gone around SSW now. Shifted from SSE earlier. Heavy rain but lower gusts speeds
Cobh

kegg

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Where the UK Met have the center of the low at 1am tonight:

Strongest of the winds should only last a couple of hours as the low pushes rapidly north.

Going by the above, does it look like the west will get off lightly?

Wild Field 1831

Little snowy old me wrote: »

Wind always sounds louder at night. No station on land is reporting sustained yellow level winds.

Ah tis yourself