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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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Denny61

munsterlegend wrote: »

Preparing for sunrise walk.

Still only windy

aisling86

Just jumped out of my skin here kn macroom lightning & winds have arrived

spookwoman

https://twitter.com/wlrfm/status/1296205305563537408?s=20

Vinta81

Lights flickering in ballinlough

munsterlegend

irishfeen wrote: »

Power flashed on and off here in North Cork. It’s not going to survive much longer. Wind really picked up last few minutes.

Yeah heavy enough rain now too.

fits

I don’t think I’m going to get any sleep tonight.

igCorcaigh

Very weird whistling sounds.
Not like a regular windy event at all.

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/KildareMet/status/1296202446881067010?s=20

Pauliedragon

irishfeen wrote: »

Power flashed on and off here in North Cork. It’s not going to survive much longer. Wind really picked up last few minutes.

Same here down in Carrigaline. Wind and rain is mad now.

Papa_Lazarou

Power gone in Maryborough Woods, Cork!

ACitizenErased

Power gone in most of the lower harbour area of Cork City/County as far up as Maryborough Hill.

Danno

dexter647 wrote: »

Christ this already sounds a lot worse than a yellow warning here in south Laois...Surely a few more counties should be orange..:eek:

Top gust 51mph at 11pm. Average wind 23mph. (standard 10m reading) Durrow.

ACitizenErased

Really heavy rain now

Doctors room ghost

Mr.Crinklewood wrote: »

FYI Lidl have Saws on sale tomorrow.

They’re electric saws.
Not worth a hat of sh1te

revelman

Now 21 separate power outages across Cork county. Several thousand customers affected.

leahyl

Power still hanging on in Mayfield yaay

Ninthlife

Doctors room ghost wrote: »

They’re electric saws.
Not worth a hat of sh1te

Especially if the power remains out

munsterlegend

Wow some powerful gusts in north cork near mallow now.

Oscar Bravo

Pressure rising rapidly at Cork Airport from 970hp at 1030pm to 975hpa at 11pm

flexcon

Power surges now by Mahon

thomasm

Strongest gusts so far in south Kilkenny now

neiphin

https://twitter.com/carlowweather/status/1296047405452992512?s=21

brevity

Power gone near Rathcormac. Strong gusts and an ominous howling wind.

SleetAndSnow

Gusts getting very strong in west cork again, really surprised our power is still on.

Meteorite58

Heavy rain earlier here in Tralee, more moderate now, the AWS is blocked I reckon , must take a look at the manual gauge soon

974.1 hPa Falling Rapidly

Netweather

HeyV

Wind rising a bit here, wasn’t a sound 15 minutes ago but can definitely hear something now even though bedroom window is closed.
East Galway.

ACitizenErased

The ESB are going to be busy tonight. Massive amount of outages across Cork.

mikep

Very strong gusts in Thurles now... Seriously worried about the trees near the house..time for bed though.
Stay safe everyone...

Sundew

Just heard a really strong gust of wind above the noisy TV programme I was watching. I was outside around 10.15 with the dog, and it was just a normal breezy eve.
Don't mind wind or storms.....just concerned about large trees right beside my house! ( Sth Galway)
Enjoying the "mostly" informative posts and updates....always my go to forum when a storm is a brewing!

irishfeen

munsterlegend wrote: »

Yeah heavy enough rain now too.

Wind and rain after really picking up last 15 min.