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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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REBELSAFC

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Skibbereen is under water.

Spot flooding.River hasn't burst it's banks

[Deleted User]

Gusty in North kerry
Highest Wind 23kmh wsw
17.6mm rainfall
13.5C
973hpa

fits

CirrusBusiness wrote: »

whereabouts are you located? Some high gusts hitting now alright. Lights are flickering here already. Wasn't expecting anything like this this early. (Mt Leinster, Carlow side.)

Not as wild as it was a few minutes ago. Was that a squall? It was like a steam train.

HeyV

rodders999 wrote: »

Power gone so it’s off to bed with me. Just put my head on the pillow and the power cut has caused someone’s house alarm to go off.....and they don’t seem to be home.

Great!

The best €2 I spent lately was on a pair of ear plugs...
OT, sorry

spookwoman

https://twitter.com/Deisesupes/status/1296203316637110273?s=20

BionicRasher

Another bit of a lull here in Cóbh. 57kts gusts at 10.20 but slowed down now

caeser

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Any orange level windspeeds manifested yet, seems to barely broken yellow warning speeds as of now. Will increase i am sure but this won't be at the high end of the winds forecast

I suppose it will be very difficult to gauge the official wind speeds. There is a gap in the weather stations between roches point and Wexford and this seems to be where the highest wind speeds will be. Not at all accurate but I’m guessing just shy of Ophelia here which caused structural damage to my house. Hill over Ardmore

[Deleted User]

Strong smell of the sea here in East Cork.... and we're a good few miles away.

Super-Rush

CirrusBusiness wrote: »

whereabouts are you located? Some high gusts hitting now alright. Lights are flickering here already. Wasn't expecting anything like this this early. (Mt Leinster, Carlow side.)

I'm on the Carlow side of the mountain as well but it has sounded a lot worse than it actually was for me. Power went about 9 for half an hour and came back.

ACitizenErased

At least 16 power faults in Cork according to powercheck.ie

spookwoman

https://twitter.com/CorkSafetyAlert/status/1296204084870090757?s=20

CirrusBusiness

fits wrote: »

Borris.

Not as wild as it was a few minutes ago. Was that a squall? It was like a steam train.

I'm only up the road from you. Some big gusts there alright. Hope the shed stays put.

Hawthorn Tree

Breezy in Galway but the air is so so warm. It feels lovely actually.

tupenny

Great to have weather to talk about, all the same

spookwoman

https://twitter.com/CorkSafetyAlert/status/1296204364810457089?s=20

https://twitter.com/CorkSafetyAlert/status/1296204514777849858?s=20

blobbyblob

That ramped up quickly....

SleetAndSnow

This should definitely clear the humid air anyway I would say

munsterlegend

ACitizenErased wrote: »

At least 16 power faults in Cork according to powercheck.ie

Virtually all in east cork.

smellyoldboot

Little bit of a damp squib so far here in Waterford. Few gusts a while back but otherwise just a windy autumn night this far.

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/CorkHarbourWX/status/1296196008871964678?s=20

anacc

Calmed down a little here near Kinsale. Lot of rain but wind isn’t as strong as the start of the second wave.

REBELSAFC

igCorcaigh wrote: »

https://twitter.com/COSullivanTD/status/1296196733085638657?s=19

If Christopher picked up the phone today and told the council to clear all the drains around Skibbereen this wouldn't have happened. Very easy to be knowledgeable after the event.

ACitizenErased

https://twitter.com/CorkSafetyAlert/status/1296204514777849858?s=20

Mr.Crinklewood

FYI Lidl have Saws on sale tomorrow.

Recliner

In Clonmel, frightening gusts. Tree down in my estate. I'm actually nervous.

Ninthlife

Lights flickering here in SW Kildare.. the odd noisy gust but nothing too bad

spookwoman

https://twitter.com/WaterfordCounci/status/1296204743476469761?s=20

TheRiverman

blobbyblob wrote: »

That ramped up quickly....

More clusters than coronavirus.

irishfeen

Power flashed on and off here in North Cork. It’s not going to survive much longer. Wind really picked up last few minutes.

Santy2015

Nothing much happening here in kanturk north west cork