nav[aria-label="Primary Navigation"] { padding: 0; & ul { list-style: none; width: 100%; display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: start; align-items: start; gap: 30px; padding: 0; & li { margin: 0; } & ul li { list-style: none; } } }

Child Item

Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

Find more posts tagged with

Quick Links

Comments

galwaybabe

Starting to pick up in Kinvara, Galway area in the last while, getting more sustained now

Seamai

Pretty wild here in the outskirts of the Cork city in the last 20 minutes.

HeyV

fits wrote: »

I’m shaking. Tree just fell against house.

South Carlow. Frightening.

FS! Hope all ok in the morning!

igCorcaigh

aisling86 wrote: »

Are you in mid cork also?

City Centre.

Danzy

Sephiroth_dude wrote: »

Same here, you know it bad when you have to close the window.

You know it's bad when you have to open the window.

mossie

Wind has eased here in North Cork County, wasn't too bad anyway, but I'm thinking that's just the first part going by what's happening south of here.

Odyssey 2005

Extremely windy here in south Kk

Oneiric 3

Hopefully, this passing low will clear the air a bit. There are only so much Amazonian nights like this I can tolerate.

[Deleted User]

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Skibbereen is under water.

https://twitter.com/southernstarirl/status/1296196726093762571?s=21

poconnor16

Holy sh*t she is here....

Donoughmore, North Cork....winds from nowhere. Could hear them coming

Tazio

how fast is the system moving northwards out of interest?

Jimbob1977

Breezy just south of Limerick City.

Nothing too hectic yet

screamer

Lads strap in we’re going to Ellen back tonight.

Holy fook we just got a gust that frightened the bejesus out of me. Kk/ laois border.

REBELSAFC

I'm on an exposed West facing site overlooking the Atlantic in West Cork. Dead calm up to 9.30 but torrential, tropical like rain. Windy now but not at Ophelia levels here. My totally unscientific assessment would be "stormy but not too bad"

greedygoblin

Wind just picking up now. Torrential rain. 15 miles west of Cork city.

Gaoth Laidir

So, any more shíte coming from Nathal's Colon at IWC?

Here were the pressure reports at 10 pm. Cork Airport fell further to 970 hPa at 22.30. Wind direction shows the centre of the low on the coast.

KingdomRushed

Any orange level windspeeds manifested yet, seems to barely broken yellow warning speeds as of now. Will increase i am sure but this won't be at the high end of the winds forecast

Thespoofer

Seems to have calmed a little , wind wise, raining handy now though, east Cork.

rodders999

Power gone so it’s off to bed with me. Just put my head on the pillow and the power cut has caused someone’s house alarm to go off.....and they don’t seem to be home.

Great!

squarecircles

Danzy wrote: »

You know it's bad when you have to open the window.

dodgy Curry?

munsterlegend

REBELSAFC wrote: »

I'm on an exposed West facing site overlooking the Atlantic in West Cork. Dead calm up to 9.30 but torrential, tropical like rain. Windy now but not at Ophelia levels here. My totally unscientific assessment would be "stormy but not too bad"

I think rain/flooding will be the big issue in west cork as opposed to wind.

igCorcaigh

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

https://twitter.com/southernstarirl/status/1296196726093762571?s=21

https://twitter.com/COSullivanTD/status/1296196733085638657?s=19

revelman

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Near the old head kinsale. Sustained winds not at all bad, odd severe gusts. But so far, nothing too worrying. Wondering if we are west enough to avoid the worst of it.
Really need to get a weather station .

Closer to Kinsale town here but still on the coast. I’d say, out of a scale of 10, this is about 6 out of 10 for us at the moment. Gusts went up to 7 or 7.5 between 10 and 10.30.

Papa_Lazarou

The strongest wind I've experienced, up in MaryBorough Woods facing out to the city. The noise from it is amazing!

https://youtu.be/CsOSSEjj5-A

CirrusBusiness

fits wrote: »

I’m shaking. Tree just fell against house.

South Carlow. Frightening.

whereabouts are you located? Some high gusts hitting now alright. Lights are flickering here already. Wasn't expecting anything like this this early. (Mt Leinster, Carlow side.)

LLewellen Farquarson

Sonics2k wrote: »

I strongly suspect I won't have a shed in the morning, so if anyone around the Carrigaline area see's it, do let me know yeah.

Will there be a motorcycle in it?

[Deleted User]

Calmer now in cork...I’m out by the airport.

God it’s eerie

Wild Field 1831

fits wrote: »

I’m shaking. Tree just fell against house.

South Carlow. Frightening.

The more easterly gradient Danno and others spoke of. Could be a southern half of Ireland event. Waterford, Wexford, Kilkenny, Carlow, south Laois, Tipp, Limerick and so on.

Jeju

East of Cork City, sustained gusts niw and heavy rain, lights flickering

dexter647

Christ this already sounds a lot worse than a yellow warning here in south Laois...Surely a few more counties should be orange..:eek: