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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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SleetAndSnow

Can hear the slates lifting and falling on the roof, not a good sign

SEPT 23 1989

Starting up in Newcastle Dublin

CZ 453

I'm shocked by how sudden the change was. This is quite unsettling. Wind is mental now. Cork City South. Power still on.

[Deleted User]

Starting to get a bit gusty west of Athlone now, I am in a sheltered hollow surrounded by trees but am already seeing gusts exceed 30Kmh and pressure of 977 and dropping.
Not much rain yet, only 2.8mm for the day 2mm about an hour ago.

FutureGuy

A few gusts in Limerick.

fleet_admiral

Awaaf wrote: »

Very heavy loud rain in Dun Laoghaire for last while.

Getting noticeably stronger here in Terenure

pad199207

Picking up up further in Kildare now

Oneiric 3

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCfWHqrYUqo

Covid19

For once, it does not seem so bad here in the West, however I can imagine what's on the way, given some of the comments so far. Trees will definitely fall, that is for certain.

Denny61

ffarrell7 wrote: »

Great climate???? In the driving wind and rain???

Yeah... depressing dank and drap climate..... Bad for one's health....

I am off to Italy on Sunday.. Yippee.... For two weeks of sun and Pizza...

Away from the Swamp!!

Its easy please you ..sun and pizza,lol

redsteveireland

So where have all the non - event posters just dissapeared to?

Sephiroth_dude

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Can't believe how out of nowhere it was. Was completely calm here in Rochestown and within 2 minutes the power was gone and the gusts started.

Same here, you know it bad when you have to close the window.

screamer

Winds picking up a bit Kk laois border trees swaying around and wind nice and high. Now if the storm streaks this way, I’d say it’ll be bad, it’s nowhere near yet and the wind is powerful already.

rino87

Yep getting walloped here now near Blarney. We are quite sheltered in a bit of a Glen but it's very wild out.

igCorcaigh

Mostly calm again with the odd gust.

alentejo

I suspect Ireland is the windiest place on the planet at the moment! (with exception of oceans . seas....)

munsterlegend

redsteveireland wrote: »

So where have all the non - event posters just dissapeared to?

Preparing for sunrise walk.

The One Doctor

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Can hear the slates lifting and falling on the roof, not a good sign

That's a bit ominous, stay safe.

Sonics2k

I strongly suspect I won't have a shed in the morning, so if anyone around the Carrigaline area see's it, do let me know yeah.

poconnor16

redsteveireland wrote: »

So where have all the non - event posters just dissapeared to?

Aviation forum?

froog

whole house is creaking and shaking east cork

[Deleted User]

The One Doctor wrote: »

If you want your rubbish scattered to the four winds, by all means put it out.

The one week it’s full to the brim! Think I’ll be getting up at 6am to put it out..

marno21

Picked up here in Wilton but doesn’t sound as severe as in other parts of the city. Being north facing is likely a help for us too

ACitizenErased

Skibbereen is under water.

SeaBreezes

Near the old head kinsale. Sustained winds not at all bad, odd severe gusts. But so far, nothing too worrying. Wondering if we are west enough to avoid the worst of it.
Really need to get a weather station

fits

I’m shaking. Tree just fell against house.

South Carlow. Frightening.

4Ad

First gust in East Clare 10 minutes ago, picking up now.

igCorcaigh

Reports of trees coming down from Cork safety alerts.

aisling86

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Mostly calm again with the odd gust.

Are you in mid cork also?

outsourced_ire

It's gone pretty calm here 10km west of Fermoy. The sudden changes this evening from quiet to loud to quiet again feels quite eery!