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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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leahyl

This is my Ophelia - I was in 35 degree heat in Lanzarote when that hit!

Itssoeasy

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

citys getting windy now? More to come, still building down here too.

Oh Ellen has arrived in cork city.

revelman

Jim Gazebo wrote: »

"it's overkill" "it was supposed to be here at 9"

Hate to say I told you so. Some wind that.

Where are you based? This is a serious storm, at least for us on the south Cork coast. Not quite Ophelia yet but bad enough!

Aimsir

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Wind at Cork airport at 1030pm is south easterly at just 18 knots,however it is due to swing around to the south west and increase in the next 30 minutes

trees bending from SW now Cork city South

anacc

revelman wrote: »

So far for us here on the coast near Kinsale, it isn’t as bad as Ophelia. But this is a serious storm.

I’m also somewhere near Kinsale. Definitely not as bad as Ophelia so far but Ophelia winds were less gusty and more sustained.

SleetAndSnow

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Oh Ellen has arrived in cork city.

Prepare for more

munsterlegend

leahyl wrote: »

This is my Ophelia - I was in 35 degree heat in Lanzarote when that hit!

Ophelia wasn’t too bad in Cork. Darwin much worse.

[Deleted User]

All the bravados here in my house are looking very pale ,this is pretty bad.

ffarrell7

chris2007 wrote: »

When will the wind get bad in dublin??

When you start farting!!!!

An Ri rua

Heckler wrote: »

That was pretty sweet. Watching it on flight radar and opening my window and hearing it as it passed over the Wilton area to land.

You have years of enjoyment ahead of you.

Wild Field 1831

Darc19 wrote: »

Thankfully this is a weather thread. Your post could mean something totally different if said elsewhere

Noticeable increase in Kildare too

He has a long one that funnels wind.. I can gauge a lot from noise/activity there. The pressure is building from a westerly source here.

Or should I say the pressure is building in his back passage but pressure in general is falling in Laois, naturally

Jim Gazebo

revelman wrote: »

Where are you based? This is a serious storm, at least for us on the south Cork coast. Not quite Ophelia yet but bad enough!

Cork city.thay was some of the stuff being said about 20 mins ago that I was trying to forewarn

[Deleted User]

Anyone else in Cork city wondering when to put their bin out for collection in the morning?!

redsteveireland

Goldstein wrote: »

All hell just broke loose on Cork coast south of the city in the last 10 mins. Out of absolutely nowhere.

Imagine if we had some sort of warning system :P
Sorry, stay safe, sounds wild down there.

francois

Gusts and rain Dublin 12, started 5 mins ago

[Deleted User]

Just ramped up in seconds in Ballincollig. Literally out of nowhere.

Be right back

[Deleted User] wrote: »

All the bravados here in my house are looking very pale ,this is pretty bad.

What part?

Itssoeasy

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Prepare for more

Oh good so what's this the starter and not the main course.

blobbyblob

A few squalls in Kilkenny now

UKLad

Strong gust just hit the house like a train in cork city sounds out there are amazing! Similar to Orphelia hope everyone keeps safe.

[Deleted User]

Be right back wrote: »

What part?

Cork city sth side.

Comhrá

Getting windy in Limk City, but no too bad yet. Very mild. 17c, 973.7 hPa and falling rapidly.

CirrusBusiness

Some strong gusts starting to hit our house on the side of Mt Leinster. Really ramping up in the last 10 minutes. Doors and windows rattling. Long night ahead.

Awaaf

francois wrote: »

Gusts and rain Dublin 12, started 5 mins ago

Very heavy loud rain in Dun Laoghaire for last while.

The One Doctor

Lia_lia wrote: »

Anyone else in Cork city wondering when to put their bin out for collection in the morning?!

If you want your rubbish scattered to the four winds, by all means put it out.

Bicyclette

Picking up here in Limerick City.

My sunflowers are dancing.

M.T. Cranium

From all your reports it would appear that the landfall occurred near Kinsale around 2200h and the centre has moved across Cork, earlier reports of very light winds indicating you were in the eye of the tropical-storm-like "Ellen" which apparently wants to be more of a Kyle.

This eye feature may be noticed further north inland but usually they shrink to such a small size that a period of moderate winds marks the passage.

Will now be quite rough for several hours as you are all saying anyway.

sammyjo90

Lia_lia wrote: »

Anyone else in Cork city wondering when to put their bin out for collection in the morning?!

Well ive just seen my neighbours one moved across the carpark so i'd say in the morning!

Meteorite58

ACitizenErased

Can't believe how out of nowhere it was. Was completely calm here in Rochestown and within 2 minutes the power was gone and the gusts started.