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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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Cody montana

Holy ****, this is mental.

[Deleted User]

Lights flickering in East Cork, Ellen has arrived

Speak Now

Waterford airport 22:30

Ditection 200⁰

Mean 32kts

Gust 52Kts (96kph)

Vinta81

Jesus it’s howling here and battering! Thankfully my bedroom isn’t south facing !

CZ 453

Mad wind out of nowhere in Cork City South. Lights flickering. Quite sudden. It was dead about 10 minutes previous.

thomil

Well, Ellen is definitely here now. SOme pretty impressive southerly gusts just hit here in Ballincollig, strong enough to trigger car alarms. Air pressure 966.9mb and falling, albeit slowly. Also, I could have sworn I saw some lightning...

Frostybrew

Cork city centre. Went from zero to a gale in the space of a minute. You could actually hear the sound of the wind approaching from the distance. Very ominous.

fleet_admiral

chris2007 wrote: »

when will the yellow warning kick in dublin

Lashing rain and very windy where I am (Terenure). I went to tesco just before 10 and it was calm and mild. Still mild, but I took in the wind chimes from my garden because of the racket

quartz1

North of Cork City just appeared out of nowhere

pad199207

Gust 47 knots at Fastnet net

munsterlegend

leahyl wrote: »

Thar she blows!

aye aye Captain.

Lights just flickered here in north cork.

The One Doctor

ffarrell7 wrote: »

We are such a sad nation.

Rest of Europe with lovely weather and decent temperatures and we are getting hammered by rain and wind....(as per usual).

Hibernia is right....... Land of depressionðŸ˜¢ðŸ˜¢ðŸ˜¢ðŸ˜¢

Actually Hibernia means Winterland, but your point is valid. That said, we're the first port of call for bad weather travelling east in the Atlantic, so...

Andrew00

Plastic Sheeting, RTE news, Cobh

lulublue22

Wind really picking up in cork city now.

leahyl

Ok I’ve have never seen the weather change so quickly - mad gusts

poconnor16

Lights flicking, north Cork...dead as a door nail here which is so bizarre, no wind at all...

Is it the calm before??

The anticipation is unreal :eek:

Ludo

It actually feels worse than Ophelia now, but that is probably just because it is dark and it makes it feel more intense and "stormy" for want of a better word. Ophelia was during day so didn't feel that bad.

flexcon

Yikes!!!

Here we go! That is one constant blast of wind!!! I’m guessing the eye passed over last 15mins and the big moment has arrived!

Jim Gazebo

"it's overkill" "it was supposed to be here at 9"

Hate to say I told you so. Some wind that.

irishfeen

Lights flickering now in North Cork (10km South of Mallow) :rolleyes:

[Deleted User]

In Cork city, gone a bit windy alright! Off go the car alarms.

igCorcaigh

Frostybrew wrote: »

Cork city centre. Went from zero to a gale in the space of a minute. You could actually hear the sound of the wind approaching from the distance. Very ominous.

Same experience, City centre. Like an oncoming train.

Sephiroth_dude

Wind has gotten very bad all of a sudden in Ballincollig.

ffarrell7

WesternZulu wrote: »

We've a great climate, few extremes and very mild for our latitude.

Great climate???? In the driving wind and rain???

Yeah... depressing dank and drap climate..... Bad for one's health....

I am off to Italy on Sunday.. Yippee.... For two weeks of sun and Pizza...

Away from the Swamp!!

ab4248

In a house, on a cliff just north of curracloe. Strong winds and rain. Still have power. So far....

lulublue22

Frostybrew wrote: »

Cork city centre. Went from zero to a gale in the space of a minute. You could actually hear the sound of the wind approaching from the distance. Very ominous.

Same here very quick turn around.

SleetAndSnow

citys getting windy now? More to come, still building down here too.

omicron

Violent wind in Midleton, several flashes of lightning also. Car alarms going off.

poconnor16

irishfeen wrote: »

Lights flickering now in North Cork (10km South of Mallow) :rolleyes:

Donoughmore here.....its dead!?

chris2007

When will the wind get bad in dublin??