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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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Cody montana

Think I spoke too soon.
Gone mental.

Goldstein

All hell just broke loose on Cork coast south of the city in the last 10 mins. Out of absolutely nowhere.

sunbabe08

leahyl wrote: »

Not on the Northside - all is quiet

yup i can comfirm this

JackieChang

Reports from my brother in the Clonmel area that power is gone.

[Deleted User]

Jesus...unreal in Cork city now.

ffarrell7

We are such a sad nation.

Rest of Europe with lovely weather and decent temperatures and we are getting hammered by rain and wind....(as per usual).

Hibernia is right....... Land of depressionðŸ˜¢ðŸ˜¢ðŸ˜¢ðŸ˜¢

leahyl

Hang on a sec....we have heavy rain!

Aimsir

Wind here now cork city south. Changed direction

padohaodha

Cork/Limerick border here.Gusty but nothing mad yet tbh.

SleetAndSnow

This is without a doubt one of the strongest windstorms i have seen down here in west cork (wasn't here for ophelia unfortunately was in the city!)

Trees bending over in the wind, basically violent gusts. Dont know how it can get a lot worse in the east

Vinta81

I’m in Ballinlough and just like that the rain and wind has come out of nowhere ðŸ‘€

igCorcaigh

Goldstein wrote: »

All hell just broke loose on Cork coast south of the city in the last 10 mins. Out of absolutely nowhere.

I can hear it coming in the city centre. Very sudden.

Itssoeasy

There's the driving rain on the northside of cork city again and there's the winds.

ninebeanrows

Goldstein wrote: »

All hell just broke loose on Cork coast south of the city in the last 10 mins. Out of absolutely nowhere.

Expect to read a lot of posts like above in the next hour or so

Ludo

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Power gone here in Rochestown now

Ok in this part of Rochestown so far. Wind gone absolutely mental in last 5 mins though. Incredible out there,

BionicRasher

57 KTS gusts in Cóbh weather station. Suddenly picked up after a short lull
Roof tiles are beginning to flap

2 yachts broke moorings at the local marine. 1 has made land and gone up on the beach the other is causing damage as it bangs about stuck in the marina

leahyl

Thar she blows!

blobbyblob

A few squalls in Kilkenny now

[Deleted User]

Wild Field 1831 wrote: »

I hear the wind starting to blow from my neighbours back passage in Laois.

Tell him to change his diet!

WesternZulu

ffarrell7 wrote: »

We are such a sad nation.

Rest of Europe with lovely weather and decent temperatures and we are getting hammered by rain and wind....(as per usual).

Hibernia is right....... Land of depressionðŸ˜¢ðŸ˜¢ðŸ˜¢ðŸ˜¢

We've a great climate, few extremes and very mild for our latitude.

refusetolose

getting nasty now in cork city

froog

the heavy rain starting now east cork. consistent very powerful winds. lights flickering

aisling86

Starting to arrive in macroom now, my mom in rochestown said the increase was so scary as it was so sudden.

Oscar Bravo

Wind at Cork airport at 1030pm is south easterly at just 18 knots,however it is due to swing around to the south west and increase in the next 30 minutes

OhToBeByTheSea

Dunmore East

Lights flickering.

[Deleted User]

Ludo wrote: »

Ok in this part of Rochestown so far. Wind gone absolutely mental in last 5 mins though. Incredible out there,

Its sounds like constant thunder, I'm shaking here that was so sudden.

sunbabe08

ahhh here it is. well that came out of now where

revelman

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

This is without a doubt one of the strongest windstorms i have seen down here in west cork (wasn't here for ophelia unfortunately was in the city!)

Trees bending over in the wind, basically violent gusts. Dont know how it can get a lot worse in the east

So far for us here on the coast near Kinsale, it isn’t as bad as Ophelia. But this is a serious storm.

greedygoblin

About 15 miles west of cork city & it's gone really calm for the last 10 minutes. Power went before 10, but haven't seen any severe wind here yet.

Covid19

Starting to get blustery here near Knock Airport.