nav[aria-label="Primary Navigation"] { padding: 0; & ul { list-style: none; width: 100%; display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: start; align-items: start; gap: 30px; padding: 0; & li { margin: 0; } & ul li { list-style: none; } } }

Child Item

Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

Find more posts tagged with

Quick Links

Comments

SleetAndSnow

Definitely above storm force winds now in west cork coast, heavy rain and getting stronger. Cant open the velux window, too strong

ACitizenErased

Power gone in Macroom

Jim Gazebo

teednab-el wrote: »

I doubt it to be honest.

Fair play. Can sleep easy now thanks. Going to get hammered. Trust me.

squarecircles

dead calm,west Mayo.

Vinta81

Danno wrote: »

They'll be dry at least?

Here in south Laois a stern ESE'ly averaging 20mph gusting 35mph.

True and my neighbours both dismantled their trampolines so no fear there in case. Another beer and I’ll sleep whatever is supposed to come!

Sonics2k

Suddenly gotten insanely windy in Carrigaline. Lights flickering, windows shaking and more.

John O.Groats

Little snowy old me wrote: »

Sunset walk went well. The mildness of the evening air is very notable. So any wind in Cork yet?

Yes and plenty of it now.

ACitizenErased

Electricity just went and its back now within a minute here in Rochestown

Itssoeasy

JackieChang wrote: »

Couldn't be calmer here in Cork city. Very relaxing. Literally not a gust of wind.

Is it supposed to get worse?

That's the impression I'm getting yeah but others can verify that.

[Deleted User]

Wind is unreal outside Dungarvan. Power went about 15 mins ago

rogieop

Sawduck wrote: »

Getting nasty in South tipp now, electricity went for a brief moment and now alarms are going off, my neighbours trampoline will probably be on my car when I wake up

Be a lot worse if it was the other way around. Every cloud and all...

SleetAndSnow

If this is not the violent winds the city is getting, then I dont even know its mental. Stuff ratteling here that I have never heard rattle

Thepillowman

Wind picking up in East Clare in the last 20 minutes, took a spin down the road to Lough Derg to check someone's boat. Alot of leaves, twigs and deadwood on the roads on the way back. Weather station down to 976.

pauldry

The way this is going up the spine of the country is very dangerous. Between lightning wind and rain it's very unsafe to be out. Trees will likely be felled even if 140kph is not reached

ACitizenErased

Power gone again and back again here ffs

ACitizenErased

Power gone in Passage West and Monkstown

OhToBeByTheSea

spookwoman wrote: »

Just hit 80 in waterford (waterford weather). House is starting to creak with the gusts

Same, I'm in Dunmore East and there was a few gusts just now and it felt like the roof was going to lift. Car alarms going off occasionally too.

Darc19

Wild Field 1831 wrote: »

I hear the wind starting to blow from my neighbours back passage in Laois.

Thankfully this is a weather thread. Your post could mean something totally different if said elsewhere

Noticeable increase in Kildare too

chris2007

when will the yellow warning kick in dublin

ACitizenErased

Wind picked up big time in the city now

LLewellen Farquarson

Just lost power in Carrigaline. Wind picked up.and swung SE

teednab-el

Jim Gazebo wrote: »

Fair play. Can sleep easy now thanks. Going to get hammered. Trust me.

We will see. It's almost 11pm now. The red warning was for 9pm to 12am. Not a gust of wind just heavy rain which always reduces the power of the storm. Turning out like that storm last year that was blown out of proportion by the media.

leahyl

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Wind picked up big time in the city now

Not on the Northside - all is quiet

igCorcaigh

https://twitter.com/Muriel_Foley/status/1296195695502860292?s=19

Jim Gazebo

teednab-el wrote: »

We will see. It's almost 11pm now. The fed warning was for 9pm to 12am. Not a gusf of wind. Turning out like that storm last year that was blown out of proportion by the media.

Storms are known for their punctuality to be fair.

anacc

JackieChang wrote: »

Couldn't be calmer here in Cork city. Very relaxing. Literally not a gust of wind.

Is it supposed to get worse?

Based on what just hit me probably 15-20km south of you, YES!

Ludo

Really picked up now again in Rochetown. Driving rain and gale force winds.

irishfeen

irishfeen wrote: »

Pressure Drop in NW Cork up to 22:00 - fair play to Met Eireann - they look to have called this perfectly.

17:00 - 991.7 hpa
20:00 - 986.8 hpa
21:00 - 982.9 hpa
22:00 - 977.2 hpa

22:30 - 974.3 hpa

munsterlegend

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Power gone in Macroom

That’s normal though.

ACitizenErased

Power gone here in Rochestown now