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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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minibear

Wind has really ramped up here in mid Co. Waterford. Very loud and there are white things flying past the windows. I am hoping they're leaves and not next doors goats. A few power outages in Waterford city, Dungarvan and near Kilmacthomas too.

johndoe99

my house here in Waterford City is getting a right battering at the moment.

spookwoman

Just hit 80 in waterford (waterford weather). House is starting to creak with the gusts

caeser

And the electricity is gone. ☹️

froog

outage in cloyne

igCorcaigh

https://twitter.com/StormchaserUKEU/status/1296194467536474112?s=19

Wild Field 1831

I hear the wind starting to blow from my neighbours back passage in Laois.

John O.Groats

March11 wrote: »

Severe gusts here now and power fliking on and off. &#55357;&#56883;

Where is here?

Little snowy old me

Sunset walk went well. The mildness of the evening air is very notable. So any wind in Cork yet?

ninebeanrows

For people in Cork questioning the storm. Please give it 3 more hours, this is the real deal- you are about to get slammed.

ACitizenErased

Power gone in Cloyne, 2000 customers affected

ben.schlomo

HeyV wrote: »

City or county?

All quiet in the city. We're about 4/5 hours from the height of it here anyway.

revelman

revelman wrote: »

Really significant increase in winds here just outside Kinsale. It was all quiet for last half hour. We live in an exposed place so are used to wind. On a scale out of 10, this is at least 7 for us. All in the last few minutes. Good thing that plane landed when it did.

Now 8 out of 10. Amazed we still have power.

Jim Gazebo

This is going to do damage in cork, stay safe all.

ACitizenErased

There is nothing here in the city at the moment

PandanadnaP

Eye of the storm has just passed Innishannon. Winds now picking back up.

grebtol2

Can you add the location of "here" when posting.

Jim Gazebo

ACitizenErased wrote: »

There is nothing here in the city at the moment

Give it time.

SweetCaliber

Tramore weather station has hit 82km/h gusts so far.

Looking at the webcam some morons have left their children out on the slip by the beach, a disaster waiting to happen. Should be done for negligence.

dark crystal

minibear wrote: »

Wind has really ramped up here in mid Co. Waterford. Very loud and there are white things flying past the windows. I am hoping they're leaves and not next doors goats. A few power outages in Waterford city, Dungarvan and near Kilmacthomas too.

:D

Winds extremely high here in Waterford City. Thankfully, no goats around.

March11

John O.Groats wrote: »

Where is here?

Between youghal and dungarvan.

Danno

Vinta81 wrote: »

Stored everything in the shed for nothing. Boring! Nothing happening and I’m 5 mins outside Cork City Center.

They'll be dry at least?

Here in south Laois a stern ESE'ly averaging 20mph gusting 35mph.

sdanseo

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

For people in Cork questioning the storm. Please give it 3 more hours, this is the real deal- you are about to get slammed.

This.

See image below. The closer together the isobars - the stronger the wind.
The strongest winds are in the SE quadrant and the whole thing is moving northwards or so at about 50km/h.

Those of you in Cork city are not at the peak yet.

https://twitter.com/StormchaserUKEU/status/1296194467536474112?s=20

mickger844posts

Safe to say this is the real deal in Waterford City. Max gust of 80km/h at my station so far. Records could be broken later,

Live Stream https://youtu.be/SnnW5vSMRGM
Live data https://www.waterfordcityweather.com

anacc

Holy sh*t that just came out of nowhere! From zero to gale in seconds. Winds changed from E to SW. Just outside Kinsale.

Itssoeasy

ACitizenErased wrote: »

There is nothing here in the city at the moment

It's calmed down but it wasn't that calm a while ago.

teednab-el

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

For people in Cork questioning the storm. Please give it 3 more hours, this is the real deal- you are about to get slammed.

I doubt it to be honest.

Sawduck

Getting nasty in South tipp now, electricity went for a brief moment and now alarms are going off, my neighbours trampoline will probably be on my car when I wake up

JackieChang

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

:D Come back and make that post in 3 hours:eek:

Couldn't be calmer here in Cork city. Very relaxing. Literally not a gust of wind.

Is it supposed to get worse?

Viewtodiefor

1100 customers power out in Dungarvan