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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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ACitizenErased

It's after calming down a bit here in upper Rochestown

Cloudio9

redsteveireland wrote: »

Aviation forum is over there - - - >

No. If trees come down we don’t say “forestry forum over there...”

Wild Field 1831

redsteveireland wrote: »

Thank fudge. Now, the weather...?

You love talking about Irelands Weather Channel too I believe Steve?

Just joking

irishfeen

teednab-el wrote: »

No gusts here or wind

Windy here but nothing exceptional - heavy rain - 10km south of Mallow

March11

Severe gusts here now and power fliking on and off. 😳

munsterlegend

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

It looks like within the hour violent winds will be impacting the south coast.

Red warning for Cork ends at midnight so it has better be!

ACitizenErased

Big power outage just outside Dungarvan, 1000+ customers affected

froog

east cork. after half an hour of quiet, powerful gusts, house shaking

bennyineire

Andrew00 wrote: »

Will the racing at killarney go ahead tomorrow evening.. Inspection at 11am tomorrow

Won't know until the inspection, hence the need for inspection

EastCork2018

Very Violent wind gusts here at the moment actually getting worried l.

xii

Howling in Limerick City, wind now very much coming from the east.

theMountain

Wind picking up in Spanish Point (West Clare) now

fryup

the gusts on ventusky are pretty modest at 30-40 mph

where's the drama?

pauldry

Is 89kph as high as it's got so far. 20mm of rain in Southwest in 2 hours!!

JackieChang

Seems to be over now. Cork City.

Most boring storm ever?

HeyV

EastCork2018 wrote: »

Very Violent wind gusts here at the moment actually getting worried l.

Was just about to ask where are you til I looked at your username

maebee

ACitizenErased wrote: »

And she's down

FYP

ACitizenErased

JackieChang wrote: »

Seems to be over now. Cork City.

Most boring storm ever?

It's very calm here in Rochestown now with the odd gust

caeser

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

It looks like within the hour violent winds will be impacting the south coast.

Unbelievable. It’s so bad here now. The house is holding up but I’d reckon there will be local damage based on the severity of the gusts. I can only guess what’s its going to be like in an hour. Better grab another bottle. Hill over Ardmore

banjolin

Nire Valley West Waterford picking up significantly in last 5 minutes.

leahyl

Nothing happening in Cork City - kind of strange

redsteveireland

First hints of wind in the chimney in Galway.

Cody montana

JackieChang wrote: »

Seems to be over now. Cork City.

Most boring storm ever?

Absolutely crap.

poconnor16

North Cork, 15kt east direction.

Doesn't seem too bad yet....expecting things to pick up quickly

HeyV

redsteveireland wrote: »

First hints of wind in the chimney in Galway.

City or county?

revelman

Really significant increase in winds here just outside Kinsale. It was all quiet for last half hour. We live in an exposed place so are used to wind. On a scale out of 10, this is at least 7 for us. All in the last few minutes. Good thing that plane landed when it did.

Vinta81

Stored everything in the shed for nothing. Boring! Nothing happening and I’m 5 mins outside Cork City Center.

Viewtodiefor

Used to wind here. Just went outside for a bit. Were hit here bad by Ophelia. Very similar wind flow as then probably not as strong but same kind of wind. With high gusts

ninebeanrows

JackieChang wrote: »

Seems to be over now. Cork City.

Most boring storm ever?

:D Come back and make that post in 3 hours:eek:

March11

Violent gusts, power gone now.