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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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aisling86

Is the rain making an opening for the winds!!

Oglaigh84

redsteveireland wrote: »

Do we really need 20+ posts about a Ryanair plane holding over Cork?

Its still holding btw

JeffKenna

redsteveireland wrote: »

Do we really need 20+ posts about a Ryanair plane holding over Cork?

I actually find it very interesting.

kmart6

redsteveireland wrote: »

Do we really need 20+ posts about a Ryanair plane holding over Cork?

It's holding due to the weather front that is the topic of discussion, hardly that a big deal. Ignore the posts if it's such a concern.

SleetAndSnow

Definitely be ready for a sudden wind direction change to those in cork city, just changed drastically and out of nowhere and grew in strength

JeffKenna

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Definitely be ready for a sudden wind direction change to those in cork city, just changed drastically and out of nowhere and grew in strength

Have you notified that Ryanair pilot?

Birtles

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

That link is reporting 1-minute mean speeds, which is around 10% higher than the standard 10-minute means. The anemometer is also at I think 90 metres above the sea.

went to 88 kts with gust of 96 kts about 10 mins ago....

Itssoeasy

listermint wrote: »

You didn't say that you gave a one line smug answer tbf. Let's call a spade a spade.

Well maybe the fact I bolded the part about trees it was obvious what I was on about. My answer was in no was smug. I wasn't having a go at the person.

Oscar Bravo

Cork airport now gusting 43 knots. 972hpa

spookwoman

https://twitter.com/HollyCairnsTD/status/1296191042757238786?s=20

ACitizenErased

That flight has begun descending, might give the landing a go

JCX BXC

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Cork airport now gusting 43 knots. 972hpa

Mean speed increased to 31kts. Still easterly.

Acosta

Big change after not looking at the wind map for 20 minutes. Can really see the shift inwards.

teednab-el

Not a puff of wind here in North West Cork.

caeser

So this is frightening. Stay safe all. Hill over Ardmore

[Deleted User]

Rain pouring down in North kerry

Oglaigh84

Going for the landing

Denny61

redsteveireland wrote: »

Do we really need 20+ posts about a Ryanair plane holding over Cork?

Its a change from hundreds of posts about something we know thats going to happen

Pipmae

Denny61 wrote: »

Hes trying to land for the 4th time..hope it doesn't run out of fuel

Maybe the he is a she

ACitizenErased

Power outage in Waterford City

mossie

teednab-el wrote: »

Not a puff of wind here in North West Cork.

Definitely picking up here Cork NW too.

Denny61

Pipmae wrote: »

Maybe the he is a she :P

or a he/she lol lol

SweetCaliber

Wind is quite bad now in Tramore, and seems to be intensifying by the minute and it hasnt even really hit us yet.

marno21

FR905 making an approach at Cork now. Air traffic control here: https://www.liveatc.net/search/?icao=EICK

120 at 22 knots with no recent gusts. Cleared to land on runway 16

ACitizenErased

Visibility 1400m at Cork airport

sweet_trip

Cork ATC reporting 22 knots no recent gusts lol.

mean gene

cork city p1ssing rain not much wind

NIMAN

... the tension!

Shakey_jake

Hes going in!

ACitizenErased

21kt wind, 120 degrees according to Cork tower