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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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March11

We are up high between Youghal and Dungarvan, townland at 52° 1' 56" N, 7° 45' 42" W. Alot of forestry around this area. Ophelia knocked hundreds of trees like skittles around here. It has become very windy, with strong gusts. Going to be a long night.

sdanseo

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Wind at Kinsale Platform has just gusted 85 knots,

wind has veered to the southwest.

People on the south coast, this is the real deal

Knots??
Source??

lcasey90

sdanseo wrote: »

The Ryanair approaching Cork, reporting wind 84kt at 6,000 feet. Very high wind for that low altitude.

In holding pattern not far from ****** hill

namloc1980

Would hate to be on that flight circling at Cork.

Ludo

Denny61 wrote: »

Hes trying to land for the 4th time..hope it doesn't run out of fuel

He is just circling. Hasn't attempted to land yet from looks of it.

sdanseo

Cork_red wrote: »

It’s not trying to land for the 4th time. They’re holding at 8,000ft.

They also have fuel gauges believe it or not :pac:

ninebeanrows

sdanseo wrote: »

Knots??
Source??

Down to 71knot gusts now, saw it above 85knots for a time

https://www.fugroweather.com/WeatherMonitor.Net/Displays/KinsaleEnergy/C20236/heli_ops.aspx

smellyoldboot

Getting a bit saucy out there now. Few nice gusts. Waterford City.

munsterlegend

sdanseo wrote: »

They also have fuel gauges believe it or not :pac:

I thought they just guessed it.

Denny61

Cork_red wrote: »

It’s not trying to land for the 4th time. They’re holding at 8,000ft.

Why is he holding..sure the weather isn't going to get better..would he not divert to Shannon

spookwoman

last 10 mins or so def increase in gusts Waterford city

SleetAndSnow

No idea where these gusts in west cork came from 10 minutes ago I was commenting how its dead, wind direction change and all tot he SW. House getting hit. Opened the door and i came in like I was in a shower. Wish I had a wind speed measure down here. Rain died a bit now but still raining, that was a mad few minutes. Still strong gusts though

pad199207

Graph from Kinsale. Gust over 90knots? :O

JCX BXC

Denny61 wrote: »

Why is he holding..sure the weather isn't going to get better..would he not divert to Shannon

Wind direction is very bad for the runway, as it moves southerly they may be able to land.

A tip, if the aircraft isn't below 3000ft it's not trying to land.

Cork_red

sdanseo wrote: »

They also have fuel gauges believe it or not :pac:

And well trained professionals at the controls. Unbelievable the overreaction of some people.

Shadylou

Still very quiet cork city

mossie

North Cork, near Newmarket, wind picking up now some rain but nothing major yet.

sdanseo

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Down to 71knot gusts now, saw it above 85knots for a time

https://www.fugroweather.com/WeatherMonitor.Net/Displays/KinsaleEnergy/C20236/heli_ops.aspx

Have we any other source for this, to verify

76kt mean wind is very close to Ophelia peak and 87kt gust is already matching (exceeding?) the maximum forecast gusts on any model today.

That sustained wind is assuredly equivalent to a strong Category 1 hurricane for comparison.

Gaoth Laidir

I would not take those aircraft windspeeds reported on Flightradar24 too seriously. Sometimes they're correct but many times not. However the 106 knots at 14,000 ft reported earlier seems legit.

Latest aviation forecasts

Cork Airport warning, valid to 3 am. Max winds 50-55 kts between 11 pm and 1 am.

EICK AD WRNG 01 VALID 192200/200200 WIND SFC ESE 25-30KT MAX 35-40 BECMG 1922/1924 SW 30-35KT MAX 50-55 FCST=

Waterford Airport TAF similar, gusts 55 knots between 10 pm and midnight.

TAF EIWF 192000Z 1921/2006 13015KT 9999 BKN015
BECMG 1921/1923 22035G55KT
TEMPO 1921/1924 5000 RA BKN005
BECMG 2001/2003 22025G42KT=

General pressure setting warning

EISN PR WRNG 01 VALID 192000/200200 EISN SURFACE PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE VALUES 0988 HPA AND 0972 HPA IN SHANNON FIR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD E of W01000 FCST=

pad199207

sdanseo wrote: »

Have we any other source for this, to verify

76kt mean wind is very close to Ophelia peak and 87kt gust is already exceeding the maximum forecast gusts on any model today.

That sustained wind is assuredly equivalent to a strong Category 1 hurricane for comparison.

Yeah but you’ve also got to take into account that it’s an offshore rig

Denny61

JCX BXC wrote: »

Wind direction is very bad for the runway, as it moves southerly they may be able to land.

A tip, if the aircraft isn't below 3000ft it's not trying to land.

Oh right..thanks...looking at flight radar. Could not make out wat height

JCX BXC

The radar image looks so strange, here in West Clare I'm going to just miss the heavy rainfall, which has a distinct line all the way from the loop head peninsula all the way down to Clonakilty!

Danno

JCX BXC wrote: »

Wind direction is very bad for the runway, as it moves southerly they may be able to land.

A tip, if the aircraft isn't below 3000ft it's not trying to land.

On their 5th or 6th lap now... :eek:

kyomi

sdanseo wrote: »

Think the Fastnet Lighthouse might be broken.

https://twitter.com/FastnetLHouse/status/1296183490082414593?s=20

I'm on the end of the Mizen peninsula and it's been really quiet here wind-wise - just a lot of rain. May be starting to pick up now but really only in the last 4 mins or so. I went out to the conservatory to check as I was surprised I couldn't hear any wind.

sdanseo

pad199207 wrote: »

Yeah but you’ve also got to take into account that it’s an offshore rig

Oh of course but the comparison I'm making with Ophelia is to the Fastnet speeds so apples and apples.

irishfeen

10pm Update, NW Cork 190 ASL

16.8 DegC - 977.2 hpa - heavy rain, windy but nothing exceptional

Gaoth Laidir

sdanseo wrote: »

Have we any other source for this, to verify

76kt mean wind is very close to Ophelia peak and 87kt gust is already matching (exceeding?) the maximum forecast gusts on any model today.

That sustained wind is assuredly equivalent to a strong Category 1 hurricane for comparison.

That link is reporting 1-minute mean speeds, which is around 10% higher than the standard 10-minute means. The anemometer is also at I think 30 metres above the sea.

EDIT: The anemometer at Kinsale is at 55 metres amsl.

Be right back

It is great to see people discussing something else for a change!!

JCX BXC

Danno wrote: »

On their 5th or 6th lap now... :eek:

I've been storm watching for years, aswell as watching FR24, it's not uncommon.

Wouldn't like it myself though.

redsteveireland

Do we really need 20+ posts about a Ryanair plane holding over Cork?