nav[aria-label="Primary Navigation"] { padding: 0; & ul { list-style: none; width: 100%; display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: start; align-items: start; gap: 30px; padding: 0; & li { margin: 0; } & ul li { list-style: none; } } }

Child Item

Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

Find more posts tagged with

Quick Links

Comments

SeaBreezes

No winds to speak of kinsale coast. Near old head. Blustery but nothing big. Could we be in the eye?

ninebeanrows

Wind at Kinsale Platform has just gusted 85 knots,

wind has veered to the southwest.

People on the south coast, this is the real deal

Danno

Can't get my head around the forecasts on RTE at 9.30pm.

The pressure chart clearly showed a very slack gradient to the west of the centre with the tightest isobars up through the midlands and east! Yet the warnings are western counties!

M.T. Cranium

JFKIRELAND wrote: »

https://twitter.com/FastnetLHouse
Fastnet light only reporting 10 knots @ 20:26, whilst other users in Cork are reporting much higher wind strengths.
Is there something up with the wind readings?

No that seems legit, they are in that dead zone between Ellen and the larger circulation to the west. Around midnight expect them to ramp up to WNW 50 to 70 knots at their height above terrain.

Two things to expect here, any wind impacts so far are from the weaker easterly flow ahead of the centre, much stronger winds will hit when the centre makes landfall, and those will be generally from the landfall point eastward, but as the centre moves inland, winds further west will also pick up as the "dead zone" as I am calling it moves north in phase with Ellen. Mace Head will show this same sequence about 3-4 hours delayed.

redsteveireland

Aviation forum is over there - - - >

caeser

Really strong gusts now. House is shaking and windows in conservatory are moving. Lights flickering and we are still and hour and a half from peak wind. Gonna grab a bottle.. Hill over Ardmore

poconnor16

I'm north Cork and there is a flight in a holding pattern over me....I think it FR905 due in at 10pm?

I would not like to be on that flight right now.

HeidiHeidi

Danno wrote: »

Can't get my head around the forecasts on RTE at 9.30pm.

The pressure chart clearly showed a very slack gradient to the west of the centre with the tightest isobars up through the midlands and east! Yet the warnings are western counties!

I've been wondering that as well!

sdanseo

Denny61 wrote: »

Looks like it can't land at cork .heading for Shannon now

Hasn't made an approach attempt yet, holding too high and in fact climbed in the hold, probably because it's too bumpy.
Visibility 2000m at Cork so it's holding for that reason rather than wind.
With the direction it's a straight headwind so even 40-45kt gusts won't be particularly challenging vs. a crosswind.

ACitizenErased

poconnor16 wrote: »

I'm north Cork and there is a flight in a holding pattern over me....I think it FR905 due in at 10pm?

I would not like to be on that flight right now.

Yup that is it, you'd imagine it will head for Shannon soon, been holding for a while, unless they budgeted fuel for this scenario

revelman

SeaBreezes wrote: »

No winds to speak of kinsale coast. Near old head. Blustery but nothing big. Could we be in the eye?

Indeed. Gone very quiet here!

telekon

Flash of lightning from glanmire direction. Lit up entire sky but didn’t hear any thunder?

NIMAN

poconnor16 wrote: »

I'm north Cork and there is a flight in a holding pattern over me....I think it FR905 due in at 10pm?

I would not like to be on that flight right now.

I was on a flight into Derry the night they had their record wind gust.

Its not a place to be.

spookwoman

https://twitter.com/CorkSafetyAlert/status/1296186207609729024?s=20

deisedevil

Power gone in Fermoy and Carrigaline

ninebeanrows

This wind veer is going to be sudden and violent on the south coast

There will be a shift from a force 6 southeasterly veering storm force 10 southwesterly in a matter of minutes.

ACitizenErased

Power gone in Little Island now too

km79

I think overnight rain is going to be the main feature of this for me in south mayo
Looks like worst winds will miss us thankfully

JCX BXC

Denny61 wrote: »

Looks like it can't land at cork .heading for Shannon now

No. It's not.

munsterlegend

spookwoman wrote: »

https://twitter.com/CorkSafetyAlert/status/1296186207609729024?s=20

That N71 won’t be around for much longer in west cork.

redsteveireland

Met Eireann sticking to their guns so with no change expected to the warnings at this stage?

SleetAndSnow

munsterlegend wrote: »

That N71 won’t be around for much longer in west cork.

Badly in need of an upgrade anyway!

OhToBeByTheSea

OhToBeByTheSea wrote: »

Dunmore East

Big drops of rain falling and wind starting to pick up. Nothing dramatic yet though. I see MTC says landfall in Cork in about 90 minutes so, we probably won't see much here until around 11pm - midnight?

Really picking up here, wind battering all sides of the house, very wet and windy.

Car alarms have just started kicking off.

munsterlegend

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Badly in need of an upgrade anyway!

That it is.

Denny61

Hes trying to land for the 4th time..hope it doesn't run out of fuel

SleetAndSnow

Suddenly the rain is coming from the south west in west cork and very heavy... EDIT:....VERY. Opened the window and im soaked

[Deleted User]

Denny61 wrote: »

Hes trying to land for the 4th time..hope it doesn't run out of fuel

I'd die if I was on that,I'm getting anxious even reading about it.☺️

Oglaigh84

Denny61 wrote: »

Hes trying to land for the 4th time..hope it doesn't run out of fuel

They wont, they will land shortly or divert

Ludo

Some really string gusts now again in Rochestown. Would not like to be on a plane coming into Cork Airport now. It's calm for a good while then really strong gusts. Back to clam again now.

Cork_red

Denny61 wrote: »

Hes trying to land for the 4th time..hope it doesn't run out of fuel

It’s not trying to land for the 4th time. They’re holding at 8,000ft.