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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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CptMackey

Big gusts here in cork. West of the city. Seems to be coming from the east

JCX BXC

Cork airport 28kts gusting 42kts at 9:30pm.

munsterlegend

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Do both. Those tricky four footers much easier with a hangover

That’s if you can find your ball plugged.

sdanseo

The Ryanair approaching Cork, reporting wind 84kt at 6,000 feet. Very high wind for that low altitude.

aidanodr

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/08/19/ireland-sting-jet/

We made the washington post. Reports of a potential nasty stingjet

ACitizenErased

Cork ATC is the top feed on LiveATC right now, lots watching
https://www.liveatc.net/hlisten.php?mount=eick2_s&icao=eick

Santy2015

Winds picking up kanturk area, showers coming and going as well.

krissovo

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

I’ve a round of golf booked in Waterville in the morning. Nobody rang me yet from the club about a cancellation or anything. I presume it will be ok to go ahead? I love a bit of wet and windy links golf. Due to tee off at 9am.

Could any of the weather boffins give me some advice? If not then I’ll stick to the pub tonight and drink a dozen pints.

They were expecting to open as normal earlier, I will be teeing off in the afternoon. The biggest risk could be flooding or fallen trees.

ACitizenErased

Power gone in North Fermoy.

ninebeanrows

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Cork airport gusting 42 knots at 9.30pm. 975hpa!

Is that adjusted to sea level?

I see 979hPa now on south coast so scrap my previous comment regarding the storm centre depth:o more likely sub 975hPa

sdanseo

aidanodr wrote: »

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/08/19/ireland-sting-jet/

We made the washington post. Reports of a potential nasty stingjet

"bombogenesis" - jesus wept

Bomb Cyclone or Explosive cyclogenesis. You can't just invent new words because it sounds better.

antodeco

Small wind increase in Lucan. I'm a few floors up and fairly exposed. Nice feeling a cooling breeze blow through

sdanseo

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Is that adjusted to sea level?

I see 979hPa now on south coast so scrap my previous comment regarding the storm centre depth:o more likely sub 975hPa

At the field which is c. 150m elevation.

2013Lara

Heavy rain in coastal wicklow. Will we escape the wind?

JFKIRELAND

https://twitter.com/FastnetLHouse
Fastnet light only reporting 10 knots @ 20:26, whilst other users in Cork are reporting much higher wind strengths.
Is there something up with the wind readings?

JCX BXC

JFKIRELAND wrote: »

https://twitter.com/FastnetLHouse
Fastnet light only reporting 10 knots @ 20:26, whilst other users in Cork are reporting much higher wind strengths.
Is there something up with the wind readings?

Could be right under the center?

pad199207

RTE have a live feed from “Port of C rk” on Twitter

https://www.pscp.tv/w/cgwz3jF6WUViR0JBSm1HUWV8MVJER2xyWlZYZHp4TBfE-iFNM4dsLYTfBFwuQcsK9D4Bll8s1c-gH_jeS7io?t=15m35s

Frasier

Power in Riverstick back after being off for around 30 min. Had gone on and off for a few secs around 10 times before that- weird

PandanadnaP

aidanodr wrote: »

We made the washington post. Reports of a potential nasty stingjet

Didn't storm ophelia have stingjets too? (Or at least the mention of them.)

Very blustery in Innishannon (15km inland from Kinsale) on a south facing hill.

alentejo

Union Hall Cork, No real wind however raining cats and dogs!

sdanseo

Another Ryanair flying almost due north towards Shannon at FL140 (14,000ft) - this is the sort of wind you see at cruising levels normally.

Chris_5339762

I'd almost buy it.... the structure of this storm and the location of very slack winds west of the eye could explain it. Very strong winds east of the eye though.

leahyl

pad199207 wrote: »

RTE have a live feed from Port of Cork on Twitter

https://www.pscp.tv/w/cgwz3jF6WUViR0JBSm1HUWV8MVJER2xyWlZYZHp4TBfE-iFNM4dsLYTfBFwuQcsK9D4Bll8s1c-gH_jeS7io?t=15m35s

Ah the Port Of Crk looks great :-P

JackieChang

Can we get a dedicated button for weather threads that instantly posts the sentence "Wind's picking up now".

aidanodr

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1296183462848868353

munsterlegend

leahyl wrote: »

Ah the Port Of Crk looks great :-P

Told you to fix that light bulb before you left work.

[Deleted User]

Very wild now near Cork city and heavy rain,strong gusts.

deisedevil

Oglaigh84 wrote: »

Ryanir plane landing cork now... Wouldnt fancy being on that

Gone round three times in a holding pattern.

Denny61

sdanseo wrote: »

The Ryanair approaching Cork, reporting wind 84kt at 6,000 feet. Very high wind for that low altitude.

Looks like it can't land at cork .heading for Shannon now

sdanseo

Think the Fastnet Lighthouse might be broken.

https://twitter.com/FastnetLHouse/status/1296183490082414593?s=20