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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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leahyl

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

Sucks to be in cork right now.
... Then you got the storm as well :pac:

I'll grab my coat.

Now, now, steady on, you don’t want to anger a Corkonian :-P

Sephiroth_dude

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

Sucks to be in cork right now.
... Then you got the storm as well :pac:

I'll grab my coat.

Storm 10

Any news stations to folloiw how Cork is dfoing tonight

JanuarySnowstor

Storm 10 wrote: »

Any news stations to folloiw how Cork is dfoing tonight

Redfm

froog

fault in kinsale now

irishfeen

Storm 10 wrote: »

Any news stations to folloiw how Cork is dfoing tonight

Here is your best bet.

stevek93

Picking up in Dublin here Cork must be getting lashed out of it

aisling86

Jim Gazebo wrote: »

Not having a go, but it's not a 4m swell in the Irish sea yet. Overestimating.

Ah ok that's what the captain told them before departure

Bassfish

Serious wind here in Crosshaven. Power still on thankfully!

Denny61

flexcon wrote: »

Wahey boys.

Massive once off gusts now hitting the apartment in Mahon, cork Literally out of nowhere it slams.

Told you to go easy with that vindaloo and curry lol

leahyl

Cork City still not so bad...within the next half hour will prob pick up

munsterlegend

Storm 10 wrote: »

Any news stations to folloiw how Cork is dfoing tonight

Cork safety alerts on Facebook is good as well.

revelman

Wind significantly picking up here in last few minutes on coast outside Kinsale. We are in a pretty exposed place so we are used to wind most days. Compared to the wind we are used to here, using a scale out of 10, I’d say we are currently at about 4 or 5 out of 10.

Shadylou

leahyl wrote: »

Cork City still not so bad...within the next half hour will prob pick up

All is fairly quiet so far

Oglaigh84

Ryanir plane landing cork now... Wouldnt fancy being on that

Tazio

leahyl wrote: »

Is it that bad there?

No not really. Stiff breeze.. but I'd say trees in full leaf hit lines somewhere..

But it is ramping....

SleetAndSnow

Still not too bad on the west cork coast either, wet and the occasional gust but not that strong of a gust either.

Wild Field 1831

Over 2 mid August nights in 1988 RTE showed 'Cylone Tracy' the documentary/film apout the Cyclone which hit Darwin, Australia early Christmas morning 1974. Great viewing, highly recommend watching.

ACitizenErased

That Ryanair flight into Cork is heading for Shannon by the looks of it

Rebelbrowser

As others are saying, wind just went from zero to force 9 or so in minutes....

ninebeanrows

Kinsale Platform still east southeast at the moment so low centre to its south

Pressure @ 984.4hPa down 3.1hPa in just 1 hour

Low centre must be close to 980hPa now.

ACitizenErased

ACitizenErased wrote: »

That Ryanair flight into Cork is heading for Shannon by the looks of it

Looping back around now, didn't even attempt to land first time

Rebelbrowser

I was in west Cork all day (back in Cork suburbs now). It was perfectly still on Mizen head at 4pm. Amazing really.

JohnnyFlash

I’ve a round of golf booked in Waterville in the morning. Nobody rang me yet from the club about a cancellation or anything. I presume it will be ok to go ahead? I love a bit of wet and windy links golf. Due to tee off at 9am.

Could any of the weather boffins give me some advice? If not then I’ll stick to the pub tonight and drink a dozen pints.

nthclare

Wind's blowing down the chimney now in Corofin Co Clare.

Usually happens when it's offshore.
Not too strong but noticeable none the less.

JCX BXC

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Looping back around now, didn't even attempt to land first time

It's in a holding pattern at 6,000ft, no intention of going to Shannon or landing yet, simply holding.

ninebeanrows

Severest winds on south coast probably from midnight to 2am.

Oglaigh84

ACitizenErased wrote: »

That Ryanair flight into Cork is heading for Shannon by the looks of it

Looks like theyre trying cork again

Oscar Bravo

Cork airport gusting 42 knots at 9.30pm. 975hpa!

Rebelbrowser

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

I’ve a round of golf booked in Waterville in the morning. Nobody rang me yet from the club about a cancellation or anything. I presume it will be ok to go ahead? I love a bit of wet and windy links golf. Due to tee off at 9am.

Could any of the weather boffins give me some advice? If not then I’ll stick to the pub tonight and drink a dozen pints.

Do both. Those tricky four footers much easier with a hangover