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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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ACitizenErased

Cork Safety Alerts reporting lightning in Skibbereen

statesaver

Will this bring warm air / weather up behind it ? Could do with it.

leahyl

Just been told by a friend that the power is gone in Riverstick where his sister lives.

ACitizenErased

leahyl wrote: »

Just been told by a friend that the power is gone in Riverstick where his sister lives.

ESB have fault at Kilmoney, 1.5k customers affected

leahyl

Picking up a little on Northside of cork city

spookwoman

https://twitter.com/CorkSafetyAlert/status/1296179528058970116?s=20

redsteveireland

leahyl wrote: »

Just been told by a friend that the power is gone in Riverstick where his sister lives.

https://www.esb.ie/esb-networks/powercheck/index.html

Drifter50

WB Yeats is currently inbound from Cherbourg to Rosslare. Left Cherbourg at 4pm and due to dock in Rosslare at 11am in the morning. Possibly was not wise to sail but if it gets really lively over the next few hours I expect it will shelter off Lands End rather than try and make it across the Georges Channel in these conditions. If it arrived in Rosslare and its too lively she would have to hove to off the port. I can imagine there is a lot of families aboard returning home for school start etc, might`nt be a pleasant trip

pauldry

Really windy in Sligo?

Not mad but earlier than I thought.

63kph highest I've seen so far.

Let's see what next 10 hours bring. Will any of Cork have power by midnight?

NIMAN

There's already an increase in winds up here in Donegal

thomil

Definitely picked up a good bit now in Ballincollig. A few pretty nice gusts, but so far nothing spectacular. Quite a bit of rain. Pressure 973.3mb and dropping rapidly now.

aisling86

My brother currently on holyhead to Dublin sailing & 4m swell. All cars on top deck & heavier trucks etc below. Surprised it went.

squarecircles

dead calm,west Mayo.

sunbabe08

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Cork Safety Alerts reporting lightning in Skibbereen

give me some lightening!!!!

munsterlegend

pauldry wrote: »

Really windy in Sligo?

Not mad but earlier than I thought.

63kph highest I've seen so far.

Let's see what next 10 hours bring. Will any of Cork have power by midnight?

It’s very rare it goes where I am!

bmc58

Wind getting a bit scarey in Clonmel area now.

M.T. Cranium

A better developed eye has shown up, track appears to be almost directly across Roches' Point, close enough to Cork-Cobh that we should assume major wind impacts possible but there may be a sharp gradient from east to west.

Noting 9 mm rainfall totals at both Valentia and Sherkin Island past hour.

Wind at Kinsale energy platform has backed from SSW to SSE indicating eyewall is approaching them. Next hourly report from there may be all-out southwest gale (I have noticed in past that Kinsale anemometer seems better exposed to W or WNW winds than SW or WSW). Onset of strongest winds likely to be around 11 p.m. in east Cork and west Waterford.

As to the Clonmel to Dungarvan drive in darkness, I would advise taking that slow enough to make a full stop as there could very well be trees down in that area.

These things are always streaky, it's due to rapid development and not enough time to form a totally organized wind field. Hit or miss so I hope it misses your location(s).

leahyl

thomil wrote: »

Definitely picked up a good bit now in Ballincollig. A few pretty nice gusts, but so far nothing spectacular. Quite a bit of rain. Pressure 973.3mb and dropping rapidly now.

Rain hasn’t really started properly on Northside yet and wind is nothing major either....not yet anyway :-D

munsterlegend

sunbabe08 wrote: »

give me some lightening!!!!

Only if you spell it right.

Tazio

leahyl wrote: »

Just been told by a friend that the power is gone in Riverstick where his sister lives.

I can confirm.. it bounced 6 times then died.. great.

ACitizenErased

Nothing mad here in Rochestown, few gusts but nothing crazy

Jim Gazebo

aisling86 wrote: »

My brother currently on holyhead to Dublin sailing & 4m swell. All cars on top deck & heavier trucks etc below. Surprised it went.

Not having a go, but it's not a 4m swell in the Irish sea yet. Overestimating.

Ludo

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Nothing mad here in Rochestown, few gusts but nothing crazy

Some crazy gusts there a second ago in Rochestown. Picking up alright.

leahyl

Tazio wrote: »

I can confirm.. it bounced 6 times then died.. great.

Is it that bad there?

pad199207

Wind has literally picked up here in Kildare the last minute or two.

LLewellen Farquarson

Kilmoney!
I'm on church road. We normally get outages. Hope we'll escape.
Went from peaceful to very blustery in 1/2 an hour.
At 8:30 we were wondering if it was a damp squib. It's shaking the trees now.

Sephiroth_dude

If the wind stayed like this now for the night and for tomorrow it would be grand.

B.A._Baracus

Sucks to be in cork right now.
... Then you got the storm as well :pac:

I'll grab my coat.

Denny61

Wild Field 1831 wrote: »

Siobhan Ryan's gone blonde:eek: Red Alert!

And showing a bit of cleavage too...Jesus this stormy weather getting her all hot and bothered lol

flexcon

Wahey boys.

Massive once off gusts now hitting the apartment in Mahon, cork Literally out of nowhere it slams.