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Child Item

Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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irishfeen

9pm Update .. 190m ASL NW Cork

16.8 DegC - 982.9 mpa - Winds steadily increased

Chris_5339762

Not my website, but we can all dogpile onto http://www.corkharbourweather.ie/ (Click Current Weather) to see latest updates.

Beechwoodspark

On rte news right now

Sephiroth_dude

Wind has picked up a good bit now in Ballincollig.

Oscar Bravo

Cork Airport now 978hpa and gusting 34 knots

JCX BXC

Cork airport 9pm 22kts gusting to 34kts, it's picking up.

Wild Field 1831

Denny61 wrote: »

Id say your great crack at a party ..isobars this and high-pressure that lol ��

If you think isobars and high pressure are convoluted meteorological speak, it's not something i would admit to, most 10 year olds understand these basic terms.

Cody montana

Getting nasty in Ballinlough!

Reckless Abandonment

RTE reporter "wind speeds of 98knots???? Ramp ramp ramp

leahyl

Typical RTÉ decided to plonk themselves in front of the Port of Cork sign with the missing O - at least it wasn’t the R missing :-P

BionicRasher

http://86.43.106.118/winfiles/cumulus/today.htm

igCorcaigh

Bang on schedule.

Cloudio9

Heavy rain but light winds in Bantry at the moment

Wild Field 1831

Siobhan Ryan's gone blonde:eek: Red Alert!

munsterlegend

Looks like Met Éireann have called the track of this spot on further to MT’s last update.

Odelay

Fair play to met. They said 21;00 and at 21:03 significant wind. It is starting with gusts now. Tree branches bending, air vent in the house rattling. Wonder how far this will go.

Beechwoodspark

Siobhan in full flight on RTÉ at mo

TheRiverman

RTE 9 o'clock News ridiculously hyping it up.

thecomedian

Wild Field 1831 wrote: »

https://beat102103.com/news/red-weather-warning-may-extend-to-parts-of-the-south-east/?fbclid=IwAR1TGEd_C4RBwoZF7Olh5G9vVFB6OA2tT1S31fmPFaCUJcZ354P9YVcl7KU

Comedy Gold:D:D:D

UCD PHD Fellow he has to get in!

Where are they getting these speeds from??

cherryghost

'Orange Impacts in Yellow Zones'. Christ. Make up your minds.

Pangea

cherryghost wrote: »

'Orange Impacts in Yellow Zones'. Christ. Make up your minds.

Exactly , why not issue orange warning then...

Wild Field 1831

Siobhan and Sharon are a site for sore eyes;)

And as a previous poster said not talking Covid is refreshing.

nthclare

I'm in the Burren, I know we might not get hit much here, hopefully not, with strong easterlies the sail's I cut into tree's with are usually to absorb the impact of wind's from the west.
So anytime we get a storm in Clare it usually won't knock the tree's down that had work on them.

If this has a big impact in Cork the tree surgeon's will be busy...

It's quite dark and no wind yet in Clare maybe 1am ?

EastCork2018

FFS... A Powercut here already between Ballycotton and Cloyne, East Cork area. Its wild out there now.

lucernarian

Parabellum9 wrote: »

Intelligent discussion doesn’t seem to be your thing - is there not a soccer forum or somewhere else you can go that might be more suited to your IQ?

Don't be hating on the soccer forum, I believe there's a child and childcare forum their parents might be interested in!

HeidiHeidi

Pangea wrote: »

Exactly , why not issue orange warning then...

Because if they did, and Sean a mile down the road didn't have his roof blown off then they were just hyping it up.

God, who'd be a forecaster these days. They really can't win.

adocholiday

So is Met Eireann's forecast for the east accurate then? This is mainly a South West/West event?

TheRiverman

Wild Field 1831 wrote: »

Siobhan and Sharon are a site for sore eyes;)

And as a previous poster said not talking Covid is refreshing.

Status red.

SleetAndSnow

Looks to be a lot worse in the city and east cork then alright, heavy rain here in west cork but just about gale force wind gusts at times.

Meteorite58

Pivoting very sharply , very quick forward motion, eye opening up. Really sense the wind is just going to plough into the coast very abruptly almost out of nowhere so to speak.